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Possible major snow storm Feb 21st-22nd


Minnesota Meso

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Dryslot. Snow will fill in later once the deformation band takes shape as the upper low ejects.

Figured... Wasn't entirely sure if another snow band would form... I figured the upper low had already ejected over the rockies, haven't really paid too much attention to the satellite lately. I haven't researched winter weather too much, so i'm kind of a noob at winter weather stuff...

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0189
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1119 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...CNTRL/NRN MO
  
   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
  
   VALID 211719Z - 212115Z
  
   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER
   HOUR WILL TRANSITION NEWD ACROSS NRN MO WHILE BEGINNING TO END
   ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO. A TRANSITION ZONE WITH A MIX OF
   FZRA/PL/SN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS W-CNTRL MO AS WARM AIR ALOFT
   CONTINUES MOVING NEWD INTO THE AREA.
  
   DISCUSSION...VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NERN MO
   WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM 7 TO 11 INCHES IN AND AROUND THE KANSAS
   CITY METRO. RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A DRYING TREND ACROSS ERN
   KS AS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TRACKING THE NRN
   DEMARCATION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY PLACES IT IN THE KANSAS CITY
   METRO AROUND 1730Z. AS A RESULT...THE HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS NWRN MO
   IS EXPECTED TO END WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING
   DRIZZLE AS THE MID-LEVELS DRY.
  
   FARTHER N AND E...HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS STRONG WAA
   INFLUENCES THE REGION. ORIENTATION OF THE WAA APPEARS TO FAVOR HEAVY
   SNOWFALL...WITH SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR...ACROSS
   N-CNTRL AND NERN MO WHILE SNOWFALL RATES REMAIN LOWER ACROSS NWRN MO
   AND FAR SERN NEB.
  
   CONTINUED WARMING ALOFT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
   FREEZING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO MORE MIXED
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS W-CNTRL MO. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE
   ACTIVITY ACROSS CNTRL MO AND RESULTANT PRECIPITATION RATES IN EXCESS
   OF 0.10 INCH/HR ARE POSSIBLE. PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN
   AS SNOW BUT AN INCREASING FREQUENCY OF SLEET APPEARS POSSIBLE. SOME
   FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR
   BENEATH THE WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL LIMIT ITS FREQUENCY.
  
   ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013
  
  
   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
 

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Snow has subsided a bit here in Emporia... I expected Moderate/Heavy snow for most of the morning hours through about 3PM... What happened?

Seven inches in two hours this morning in Topeka. We're temporarily in the dry air now.

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Just over 5 inches in Lincoln, more to our northeast towards Omaha as a short lived TROWAL seemed to set up around Omaha - boosting their reports to 8 and over.

 

The dry slot killed us.  Actually a Double whammy of dry did us in.  That cold dome  of high pressure over IA east of the low - dewpoints barely above 0.  Advect that at the surface into the cyclone on easterly winds... no matter what the mid level waves threw at us early - no snowfall accumulations as it was drying out before hitting the surface.  I think the models had a good handle on that... That continued until we got enough forcing late (same forcing causing thundersnow I believe, but angled northward) morning to overcome the dry low levels... then after that went thorugh, our mid levels dried out... heck even though it was still snowing.  We were showing mod snow with 1/2 and sometimes 1/4 mile visibilities but the dendrites were so horrible we weren't accumulating as much as you would think just looking at observations and radar.  I think that is attributed to not deep enough moisture...  they looked like tiny needles...so fine it looked like fog.  Maybe 2 or 3 inches of that by 3 pm.  Wasn't until the 500 mb low got closer did we start to see better accumulating snow about 5 pm.

 

Anyway, it covered the ground white, so I'm happy. 

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