LocoAko Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Woke up to huge flakes pouring in Norman. What a treat! Yesterday OUN issued a WWA for OKC (12 hours before event start) saying anywhere from 0.5-4" and in effect for 30 hours. Gotta love forecasting winter weather in Oklahoma.... and now we have a MD for heavy-snow due to wet bulbing. My first Okie snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Woke up to huge flakes pouring in Norman. What a treat! Yesterday OUN issued a WWA for OKC (12 hours before event start) saying anywhere from 0.5-4" and in effect for 30 hours. Gotta love forecasting winter weather in Oklahoma.... and now we have a MD for heavy-snow due to wet bulbing. My first Okie snow accumulation. Saw that on twitter. Wasn't really even paying attention to the snow threat yet, but congrats on your first OK snow. Nothing like an SPC MCD to christen it. Had a little twitter back and forth with some other met associates : The Oz @PV_Anomaly Protected account Snow in Oklahoma is apparently equivalent to the world apocalypse. Jeremy Gibbs @Jeremy_Gibbs @PV_Anomaly We are easily impressed. Cory Martin @cory_martin @PV_Anomaly I am guessing you haven't seen it snow in Texas? Corey Pieper @Geostrophic Or rain, for that matter. Trafficpocolypse every day here in TX. “@cory_martin: @PV_Anomaly I am guessing you haven't seen it snow in TX?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Saw that on twitter. Wasn't really even paying attention to the snow threat yet, but congrats on your first OK snow. Nothing like an SPC MCD to christen it. Had a little twitter back and forth with some other met associates : The Oz @PV_Anomaly Protected account Snow in Oklahoma is apparently equivalent to the world apocalypse. Jeremy Gibbs @Jeremy_Gibbs @PV_Anomaly We are easily impressed. Cory Martin @cory_martin @PV_Anomaly I am guessing you haven't seen it snow in Texas? Corey Pieper @Geostrophic Or rain, for that matter. Trafficpocolypse every day here in TX. “@cory_martin: @PV_Anomaly I am guessing you haven't seen it snow in TX?” Haha. From what I've seen here so far this winter I don't envy the forecasters - nothing is clear cut like it often is in the Northeast. The metro always seems to be right on the precipice of every precipitation type imaginable (and I hadn't been looking at anything too closely, anyway). The AFD update from OUN noted that not only did we wetbulb but the 12Z sounding from Norman came in colder than models anticipated: Will be interesting to see if some of the latest HRRR snowfall predictions come to fruition in the metro - would be quite a forecast bust if so, though we are currently back to light rain/snow mix, so... Pretty cool to see the explosion of snow reports over Norman this morning on mPING, ha. http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/display/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 My 16Z TrendCast Run for the OK, KS, NE areas (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) Here is what is generally showing... Dodge City Weather Progression: Continue Light Snow from now through 21st at 5AM, then looking for another shot of heavy snow, from 21st at 6AM to 3PM with snowfall rates up to 1.2"/hr possible during this time frame. Visibilities will be between 3/4 and 1 1/2 miles, ceilings around 005 to 008 feet. Snow will decrease after 21st at 3PM. In addition, winds will be gusty with wind speeds up to 35kts possible for the next 4-8 hours. Forecasted snowfall for this region is between 10-12". Wichita Weather Progression: Continue moderate to heavy snow til 3PM, then will decrease to light snow. Then look for increase in snow from 8AM to 6PM with snowfall rates above 1"/hr during this time frame. Forecasted snowfall for this region is between 6-9". Tulsa Weather Progression: Continue light snow for next couple hours, then look for temps to increase above freezing, which will limit accumulations. Main hazard is the potential for freezing rain from 20th at 11PM to 21st at 11AM, potential for .2 to .3" of ice accumulation possible during this time frame. Temperatures will be hovering right around the 31 to 34 degree mark, which will reduce any snow accumulation and limit the ice for a 12-16 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Beautiful vis sat with the upper low lagging way back in AZ still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 WFO OUN being honest about the difficulty of the precipitation type down here: KEEP AN EYE ON FORECAST UPDATES...AS SOME UPDATES MAY BE MOREREACTIVE THAN PRO-ACTIVE GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN THE TYPES OFPRECIP EXPECTED. Expecting a total mixed bag throughout the area through mid-day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am seeing some info saying that Gove County and Rawlins County Kansas have 7" of snow already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I am seeing some info saying that Gove County and Rawlins County Kansas have 7" of snow already. Where did you see that one? Here are some LSR's from the Wichita office: THE TOTALS BELOW ARE SEPARATED INTO SNOW...AND ICE AND SLEETCATEGORIES...THEN BY AMOUNT...AND ARE NOT NECESSARILY THEFINAL AMOUNT FOR EACH LOCATION.SNOW REPORTS LISTED BY AMOUNT INCHES LOCATION ST COUNTY TIME ------ ----------------------- -- -------------- ------- 5.10 WEST WICHITA KS SEDGWICK 0257 PM 5.1 INCHES OF SNOW MEASURED AROUND CENTRAL AND 119TH. 5.00 LYONS KS RICE 0410 PM 5.00 ANTHONY KS HARPER 0120 PM 4.80 WICHITA MID CONTINENT A KS SEDGWICK 0145 PM 4.00 GREAT BEND KS BARTON 0410 PM 4.00 RUSSELL KS RUSSELL 0410 PM 4.00 NORWICH KS KINGMAN 0302 PM 3.60 WEST WICHITA KS SEDGWICK 1200 PM 3.50 KINGMAN KS KINGMAN 1037 AM TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURES BETWEEN 3 TO 4 INCHES AROUND THE TOWN OF KINGMAN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FALLING. 3.00 WICHITA MID CONTINENT A KS SEDGWICK 1200 PM 2.50 WEST WICHITA KS SEDGWICK 1200 PM 2.00 LINCOLN KS LINCOLN 0410 PM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ESTIMATED ACROSS THE COUNTY. 2.00 ARKANSAS CITY KS COWLEY 1100 AM 0.00 KINGMAN KS KINGMAN 0728 AM THEY REPORTED MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MIXED WITH SOME SLEET. A FEW ACCIDENTS WERE REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 54 WEST OF HIGHWAY 14.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Q has unfortunately claimed its first life; the life of an eighteen year old who died when his car slid off the road in Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Already a 9" report N of Hays. They're going to be annihilated by the time it's over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fishnut Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Already a 9" report N of Hays. They're going to be annihilated by the time it's over. Still waiting for the first flake here in Topeka. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Q has unfortunately claimed its first life; the life of an eighteen year old who died when his car slid off the road in Oklahoma. Yeah someone will jackpot with 20"+...possibly 25". (Wrong response...this was to brettjrob) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Awesomeness happening in the plains right now as the upper low crawls east bringing with it strong lift and moisture advection aided by the backed LLJ of 50kts into the TX PH, combination of that and you get a radar exploding with convection in eastern NM and the southern TX PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Awesomeness happening in the plains right now as the upper low crawls east bringing with it strong lift and moisture advection aided by the backed LLJ of 50kts into the TX PH, combination of that and you get a radar exploding with convection in eastern NM and the southern TX PH. 12.png yeah, impressive stuff. Just a little bit of WAA overspreading the southern plains. The low level theta-e axis should rapidly spread N now in response to increasing cross-barrier flow and subsequent strengthening of the leeside troughing. The fireworks show really begins tomorrow near 12z once the bowling ball PV anomaly overspreads the low level theta-e axis...which all the models indicate. TSSN across portions of KS is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 yeah, impressive stuff. Just a little bit of WAA overspreading the southern plains. The low level theta-e axis should rapidly spread N now in response to increasing cross-barrier flow and subsequent strengthening of the leeside troughing. The fireworks show really begins tomorrow near 12z once the bowling ball PV anomaly overspreads the low level theta-e axis...which all the models indicate. TSSN across portions of KS is likely. Have a friend in KC not looking forward to it lol I know some have wanted to know your thoughts for us out east in our forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Have a friend in KC not looking forward to it lol I know some have wanted to know your thoughts for us out east in our forum. I honestly haven't been looking farther E, but it looks good for you in N IL as the occlusion pushes through. There will be some pretty vigorous height falls as the upper low migrates in...so forcing will not be an issue. Easterly flow out of such a stout high always scares me, so the NAM qpf ccan honestly be cut back quite a bit. 3-4 hours of moderate SN...then the dryslot makes an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Numerous reports of TSSN across portions of southern KS including downtown Wichita. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Numerous reports of TSSN across portions of southern KS including downtown Wichita. I would not be surprised if someone gets 5 or 6 inches of snow in one hour this morning somewhere in this area. I'm not sure if ICT NWS is going to consider yesterday's 5 inches part of this storm as well, if they do I'd be surprised if their single storm record is not broken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 I would not be surprised if someone gets 5 or 6 inches of snow in one hour this morning somewhere in this area. I'm not sure if ICT NWS is going to consider yesterday's 5 inches part of this storm as well, if they do I'd be surprised if their single storm record is not broken. They definitely should since it is all one storm. I agree, some extreme rates are possible. 5-6" may be a bit high, but 3-4" rates at times seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Snow shot from downtown Wichita...via twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not as exciting as up to my north, but we've had thundersleet for the past 6 hours or so here in Norman (are TSZR and TSPL not options?). Sitting at 32F now with mostly rain. Was pretty fun driving into the office and hearing the roar of sleet pick up on the car, a sound I haven't heard in a long while. KOUN 211235Z AUTO 04005KT 2 1/2SM SN SCT002 BKN021 OVC031 00/00 A2976 RMK AO2 P0003 LTG DSNT N NE AND SKOUN 211215Z AUTO 35003KT 1 1/2SM -SN SCT002 BKN015 OVC022 00/00 A2979 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 211155Z AUTO 03008KT 1 1/2SM -TSSN SCT004 BKN010 OVC024 00/00 A2973 RMK AO2 P0013 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 211135Z AUTO 36005KT 2 1/2SM -TSSN SCT004 BKN009 OVC015 00/00 A2976 RMK AO2 P0013 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 211115Z AUTO 36009KT 1 3/4SM -VCTSSN SCT004 OVC009 00/00 A2973 RMK AO2 VIS 1V3 P0005 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 211055Z AUTO 33009KT 7SM VCTSUP OVC007 00/00 A2975 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 211035Z AUTO 10007G15KT 077V137 10SM VCTS OVC009 00/00 A2969 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU NKOUN 211015Z AUTO 09005KT 10SM OVC009 00/00 A2968 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND WKOUN 210955Z AUTO 11014G19KT 10SM OVC009 00/00 A2968 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT W THRU EKOUN 210935Z AUTO 10010KT 10SM OVC009 00/00 A2970 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT E AND NWKOUN 210915Z AUTO 11013G20KT 10SM BKN009 OVC013 00/00 A2972 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT NW THRU EKOUN 210855Z AUTO 11014G18KT 7SM VCTSUP BKN008 OVC013 00/00 A2972 RMK AO2 P0015 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 210835Z AUTO 10014G18KT 10SM UP SCT008 BKN013 OVC021 00/00 A2974 RMK AO2 P0014 LTG DSNT NW THRU NEKOUN 210815Z AUTO 10013G18KT 2SM -TSSN BKN010 BKN016 OVC021 00/00 A2975 RMK AO2 P0013 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 210755Z AUTO 10010G18KT 10SM TS BKN010 OVC017 00/00 A2979 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQSKOUN 210735Z AUTO 10019G26KT 10SM VCTS SCT008 OVC014 00/00 A2976 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU NWKOUN 210715Z AUTO 09020G23KT 10SM UP OVC010 00/00 A2979 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 storm total so far is about 8 inches in mcpherson, 7.5" on the ground as we had some melting between bands. Moisture content so far is .92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Snow has subsided a bit here in Emporia... I expected Moderate/Heavy snow for most of the morning hours through about 3PM... What happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 9" on the ground, storm total so far 9.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Snow has subsided a bit here in Emporia... I expected Moderate/Heavy snow for most of the morning hours through about 3PM... What happened? Dryslot. Snow will fill in later once the deformation band takes shape as the upper low ejects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 MCD for the face-ripping snow across N MO. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0185 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0616 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN MO...AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF KS...NE...IA...AND IL CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 211216Z - 211715Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH HOURLY ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM NE KS TO NW/N CENTRAL MO THROUGH 15-18Z. JUST SE OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION. DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS DRIVING AN EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT HAS BEEN SPREADING STEADILY NEWD THIS MORNING...PERHAPS A 1-2 HOURS FASTER THAN NAM/SREF AND HIGH-RES DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR. A WARM NOSE IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER /SAMPLED BY THE 12Z SGF SOUNDING/ HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM SE KS INTO SW MO...AND THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD INTO CENTRAL MO THIS MORNING. FARTHER NW...PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW /PER THE 12Z TOP SOUNDING/. A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS NE KS/NW MO THROUGH MID MORNING...REACHING N CENTRAL/NE MO BY LATE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY INCLUDE THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BY 13-15Z...WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THOUGH THE THERMAL STRATIFICATION IS NOT NECESSARILY IDEAL FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE ENHANCED BY WEAK UPRIGHT CAPE IN THE MIDLEVELS. ..THOMPSON.. 02/21/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backdoorfront Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lightning strikes showing up on Weatherunderground at the Lake of the Ozarks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Lovely day to go for a drive in KC, via twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not as exciting as up to my north, but we've had thundersleet for the past 6 hours or so here in Norman (are TSZR and TSPL not options?). Sitting at 32F now with mostly rain. Was pretty fun driving into the office and hearing the roar of sleet pick up on the car, a sound I haven't heard in a long while. KOUN 211235Z AUTO 04005KT 2 1/2SM SN SCT002 BKN021 OVC031 00/00 A2976 RMK AO2 P0003 LTG DSNT N NE AND S KOUN 211215Z AUTO 35003KT 1 1/2SM -SN SCT002 BKN015 OVC022 00/00 A2979 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 211155Z AUTO 03008KT 1 1/2SM -TSSN SCT004 BKN010 OVC024 00/00 A2973 RMK AO2 P0013 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 211135Z AUTO 36005KT 2 1/2SM -TSSN SCT004 BKN009 OVC015 00/00 A2976 RMK AO2 P0013 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 211115Z AUTO 36009KT 1 3/4SM -VCTSSN SCT004 OVC009 00/00 A2973 RMK AO2 VIS 1V3 P0005 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 211055Z AUTO 33009KT 7SM VCTSUP OVC007 00/00 A2975 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 211035Z AUTO 10007G15KT 077V137 10SM VCTS OVC009 00/00 A2969 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU N KOUN 211015Z AUTO 09005KT 10SM OVC009 00/00 A2968 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT N AND W KOUN 210955Z AUTO 11014G19KT 10SM OVC009 00/00 A2968 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT W THRU E KOUN 210935Z AUTO 10010KT 10SM OVC009 00/00 A2970 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT E AND NW KOUN 210915Z AUTO 11013G20KT 10SM BKN009 OVC013 00/00 A2972 RMK AO2 P0001 LTG DSNT NW THRU E KOUN 210855Z AUTO 11014G18KT 7SM VCTSUP BKN008 OVC013 00/00 A2972 RMK AO2 P0015 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 210835Z AUTO 10014G18KT 10SM UP SCT008 BKN013 OVC021 00/00 A2974 RMK AO2 P0014 LTG DSNT NW THRU NE KOUN 210815Z AUTO 10013G18KT 2SM -TSSN BKN010 BKN016 OVC021 00/00 A2975 RMK AO2 P0013 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 210755Z AUTO 10010G18KT 10SM TS BKN010 OVC017 00/00 A2979 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS KOUN 210735Z AUTO 10019G26KT 10SM VCTS SCT008 OVC014 00/00 A2976 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW THRU NW KOUN 210715Z AUTO 09020G23KT 10SM UP OVC010 00/00 A2979 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW Hope you are getting an idea of how awesome plains weather truly is.Last two winters have not been indicative of what you usually can expect. As much as I love Nor'easters, there is nothing more special than plains weather. A meteorologist could not have sat down and drafted a better setup for extreme weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0187 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0927 AM CST THU FEB 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL MO...FAR NERN OK...FAR SERN KS...NRN AR CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 211527Z - 211930Z SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR...WITH A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE...WITH A PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE OF FREEZING RAIN. LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF GREATER THAN 0.50 INCH IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 15-18Z WITH PRECIPITATION RATES ABOVE 0.10 INCH/HR...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. DISCUSSION...STRONG WAA ADVECTION REGIME ABOVE A COLD SURFACE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS WRN OK AND ARK AS IT MOVES NEWD INTO SRN MO AND NRN AR. 12Z SGF AND TOP SOUNDINGS SHOW A PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR WITH A TRANSITION ZONE INCLUDING BOTH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FARTHER N ACROSS CNTRL MO. WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION RATES GENERALLY ABOVE 0.10 INCH/HR WITH RATES LOCALLY APPROACHING 0.30 INCH/HR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR. ..MOSIER.. 02/21/2013 ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP... ICT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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