jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z euro mcpherson, ks = .51" Lincoln, NE = 0.70" OMAHA, NE = 0.76" (way northwest this run! ) mixing issues in lincoln and omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 the euro is all over the place...for now, i'll ride the gfs as it's been more consistent with it's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 the euro is all over the place...for now, i'll ride the gfs as it's been more consistent and not having huge storm tracks run to run. sounds like a plan. Strange the way the Euro is acting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 sounds like a plan. Strange the way the Euro is acting 'Rex Block'.....from the MSP morning AFD. THE END PORTION OF THE FORECAST (THURSDAY/FRIDAY) HAS CERTAINLYBECOME MORE INTERESTING IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS AND ECWMFCONTINUE TO SHOW AN OMEGA BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORWEGIAN SEAAROUND MID WEEK. HOWEVER...THE 16.00Z ECMWF TAKES IT ONE ONE STEPFURTHER AND DEVELOPS THIS INTO A REX BLOCK FROM THE NORWEGIAN SEAINTO EUROPE. THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A REX BLOCK FROM CENTRALCANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHAT CONTINUITY WE HAD ON THEUPPER LEVEL LOW PASSING JUST SOUTH OF US FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ISGONE. IN FACT... THE UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED FROM EASTERN IA ON THE15.00Z RUN TO CENTRAL SD ON THE 16.00Z RUN DO TO THE AFOREMENTIONEDBLOCKING. THE GFS BASICALLY SHEARS THE UPPER LOW EAST TO WESTACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLAINS DURINGTHIS TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12Z GFS FTW (well, for SE MN & adjoining areas). It'll be interesting to see where the euro goes this AM. Still a long way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 According to this, the GFS hits Nebraska with over 18". It would be nice if somehow the 18" would hit the high mountains. We need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12z euro basically consistent with it's 0z run...1.00+ qpf into sw MN and 0.75 + southern half of MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'd certainly enjoy seeing those colors continue IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z GFS similar to the ECM track and qpf amounts... msp around 0.80" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z GFS similar to the ECM track and qpf amounts... msp around 0.80" total. Do you have some CMC plots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Do you have some CMC plots? CMC at 120..500-sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z euro weaker but takes the L thru msp...lower on qpf but still 0.50-0.75 for s half of MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z euro weaker but takes the L thru msp...lower on qpf but still 0.50-0.75 for s half of MN. I am thinking this is going to be more of a central plains event. Even if this does go N, moisture will be limited due to both substantial DMC farther S and the very stout 1035+ high anchored over the N Plains. Right now it looks like an LBF - OMA - DSM event with much lighter amounts N. I still think you will see some snow in S MN though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I am thinking this is going to be more of a central plains event. Even if this does go N, moisture will be limited due to both substantial DMC farther S and the very stout 1035+ high anchored over the N Plains. Right now it looks like an LBF - OMA - DSM event with much lighter amounts N. I still think you will see some snow in S MN though. I think so too...i think MPX was jumping the gun a little or riding the euro by throwing out 80% pops into the forecast 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I think so too...i think MPX was jumping the gun a little or riding the euro by throwing out 80% pops into the forecast 5 days out. Well the high pops may still verify, but the storm will have dropped most of its load by then. I actually think the end result for MN will be something in between the EC/GFS and the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Good luck to you all out west with this storm. I'll be reading and hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LBF did the right thing and put out an SPS. A little surprised the other NE offices have nothing out yet. Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE648 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-172200-SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-WESTERN CHERRY-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE...SPRINGVIEW...SPENCER...AINSWORTH...BASSETT...ONEILL...OSHKOSH...HYANNIS...MULLEN...THEDFORD...DUNNING...TAYLOR...BURWELL...BARTLETT...ARTHUR...TRYON...STAPLETON...BROKEN BOW...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...GRANT...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS...CODY...MERRIMAN...KILGORE648 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2013 /548 AM MST SUN FEB 17 2013/A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINSWEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM WILL LIKELYBRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND SUBZERO WIND CHILLS TOPORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.PREPARATIONS FOR THIS EVENT COULD BEGIN TODAY.SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAYAND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO WEDNESDAYNIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANDTHURSDAY. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO VALENTINE APPEARTO BE MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVY SNOW. WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITHSTRONGER GUSTS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY AND PRODUCE BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON THURSDAY AND LOWSTHURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDSWILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL READINGS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.THE TRACK OF THE STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT THIS IS A LARGESTORM WHICH WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT PLAINS FROMKANSAS NORTH THROUGH NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. CONTINUE TOMONITOR THE FORECAST IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS AS THE DETAILS OF THISEVENT WILL BECOME CLEARER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Good storm for nebraska w iowa...they need the moisture. 12z euro a little further north than the gfs with 0.75 + qpf including all of sw MN. MSP 0.50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 You know what I was thinking? We gotta find a way to get some snow in the Front Range corridor with this storm. The upper low is right. The surface low is right. It doesn't stall here. Here's a precip image from the 00z ECMWF showing some heavy snow near Denver. I suppose it remains to be seen if this will have a longer-duration upslope snow, or maybe just 2-4" for us. The GFS right now does not show much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 You know what I was thinking? We gotta find a way to get some snow in the Front Range corridor with this storm. The upper low is right. The surface low is right. It doesn't stall here. Here's a precip image from the 00z ECMWF showing some heavy snow near Denver. I suppose it remains to be seen if this will have a longer-duration upslope snow, or maybe just 2-4" for us. The GFS right now does not show much. 2013_02_17_ECMWF_feb_21_0900.png At best it would be a quick hitter. Models continue to prog a very rapid ejection...obviously you guys like those nice 4 corners cutoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Jim Cantore tweeted he'll be in either Omaha, Lincoln or Des Moines for this. Time to start hoarding food and creating chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Jim Cantore tweeted he'll be in either Omaha, Lincoln or Des Moines for this. Time to start hoarding food and creating chaos. Why do Americans hoard supplies before winter storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 [quote name="Hal" post="2134934" timestamp="1361154525"s Why do Americans hoard supplies before winter storms? People overreact thinking they'll be stuck home for days is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 People overreact thinking they'll be stuck home for days is my guess. Yep, good luck btw to those on this board who will be impacted by the glut of this storm. Looks like Nebraska, Kansas, and Iowa will be the primary beneficiaries of the heavy snow and wind. Thinking a general 8-16" in much of those states, with the higher totals really tapering east of Des Moines or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Kinda surprised to see this thread go quiet. The models (with exception of the Canadian) have trended colder with the system and shifted the track of the low to the south somewhat. The 12z/18 Euro joined the NAM and GFS on a colder trend. I am beginning to think that an ice storm scenario is becoming plausible across parts of southwest into south-central Kansas into western Missouri. Heavy snow accumulations of 8-14" are likely along I-70 into southern Nebraska. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 252 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER TO RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WINTER WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL...BLOWING SNOW AND WIND CHILLS READING NEAR ZERO TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-191000- /O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0004.130221T0000Z-130222T0600Z/ SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN- GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON- LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER- WESTERN CHERRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE... SPRINGVIEW...SPENCER...AINSWORTH...BASSETT...ONEILL...OSHKOSH... HYANNIS...MULLEN...THEDFORD...DUNNING...TAYLOR...BURWELL... BARTLETT...ARTHUR...TRYON...STAPLETON...BROKEN BOW...CHAPPELL... BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...GRANT...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL... HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS...CODY...MERRIMAN...KILGORE 252 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013 /152 PM MST MON FEB 18 2013/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * TIMING...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THURSDAY. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY THURSDAY EVENING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER THROUGH THEDFORD AND VALENTINE. AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE...6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WIND...EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH THURSDAY. LOW WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO SNOW...BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Updated day 3 HPC snow/ice probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Kinda surprised to see this thread go quiet. The models (with exception of the Canadian) have trended colder with the system and shifted the track of the low to the south somewhat. The 12z/18 Euro joined the NAM and GFS on a colder trend. I am beginning to think that an ice storm scenario is becoming plausible across parts of southwest into south-central Kansas into western Missouri. Heavy snow accumulations of 8-14" are likely along I-70 into southern Nebraska. What do you guys think? I agree, it is unfortunate much of this storm will be hitting locations where we have 0 members. This is a pretty big deal though, and if the GFS verifies, portions of N Kansas will be seeing some incredible snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazieman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I've been eyeballing it to see how far south the snow will creep, but so far it looks like an ice event for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I've been eyeballing it to see how far south the snow will creep, but so far it looks like an ice event for me. Im close to the ice snow line , hopefully snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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