Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I know most posters here focus on severe weather, but I think a major snow storm may be impacting this area. While certainly not a drought buster, could this event signal the start of a pattern change? Often times a pattern change starts with some sort of a major storm. I can't post the Euro snowfall map from 02/14 12z, but the 02/15 0z run of the GFS is coming into agreement. Check the snowfall totals at Instant Weather Maps through 192 hrs. I know it's a long ways out, but I expect that MSP and FSD will not see any snow with this one. Cold air should be available as the southern jet lifts a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 The one criticism that I have about the Metocentre (sp) site, is that it's almost impossible to follow the 540 thickness line,...I wish they would bold that black, but it looks like the area in question should be in the cold sector, I will have to wait until precip type map comes out to make sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think it's a little early to base track and where the heaviest snowfall will occur based just on the euro and still being 6-7 days out...that model was lousy with last weekends storm based on low qpf and all snow event it had progged for my area. 3/4 of that event was sleet/freezing rain and higher qpf totals like most other models spit out. Anyway, the 0z ggem is further south but a weak piece of crap but still manages to spit out some snow for msp. I do agree that Nebraska and Iowa have the best shot of the heavier snow based on all 3 major global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 fwiw: the 0z gfs ensemble at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think it's a little early to base track and where the heaviest snowfall will occur based just on the euro and still being 6-7 days out...that model was lousy with last weekends storm based on low qpf and all snow event it had progged for my area. 3/4 of that event was sleet/freezing rain and higher qpf totals like most other models spit out. Anyway, the 0z ggem is further south but a weak piece of crap but still manages to spit out some snow for msp. I do agree that Nebraska and Iowa have the best shot of the heavier snow based on all 3 major global models. This could be the 1st big test of the supposedly new and improved GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This could be the 1st big test of the supposedly new and improved GEM yeah, i'm anxious on how well the upgrade affects the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Keep coming south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Precip type at 168: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Would love to get Baro's thoughts on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 maybe I should renew my subscription to accuweatherpro or do storm vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Prinsburgh: here is a site that shows 20 members of the GFS ensembles, it only shows it for the 0 and 12z runs, but it has all the members I believe. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&hh=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 fwiw: the 0z gfs ensemble at 168 I agree many of those ensembles look interesting for MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Prinsburgh: here is a site that shows 20 members of the GFS ensembles, it only shows it for the 0 and 12z runs, but it has all the members I believe. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ncep_geps&stn=PNM&hh=180 Thanks...looks like the 0z FIM is north of the gfs, i mention the FIM because MPX mentions that model alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Would love to get Baro's thoughts on this one He posted some initial thoughts in the Mid/Long range discussion. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38085-centralwestern-winter-mediumlong-range-discussions/page-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 He posted some initial thoughts in the Mid/Long range discussion. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38085-centralwestern-winter-mediumlong-range-discussions/page-4? Thanks, I missed his post, my bad. I guess I was just wondering about the snowfall chances in KS/NE with this run of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z euro weak and south like the ggem but manages to hit msp on south with some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks...looks like the 0z FIM is north of the gfs, i mention the FIM because MPX mentions that model alot. I here you on the FIM deal, I guess it has shown some skill, but there are some minor differences between the two different 30km runs and the two different 15km runs. Of course I tend to lend more credence to the 15km runs the different runs are shown in the upper left hand corner. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim&domain=236&run_time=19+Dec+2010+-+00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Alot of the 0z ggem ensembles are farther north and amped like the gfs ensembles...goofy models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Prinsburg: you might find this site interesting, although the blog owner set this site up to grade our local media mets by predicting snowfall amounts at MSP, there are some of us that talk about systems as a whole. Be aware there are a lot of Debbie Downers that frequent the site, some say they moved to MN from the NE US to experience a true MN winter, some even from the Mid Atlantic......what do you want, live out there with almost know snow? Or see our snow covered winters. If they want 2ft snowfalls once in their lives they should have stayed out there. If you go there just sign your post with something I will recognize. http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2013/02/you-be-grader.html?showComment=1360909936277#c718351934227236781 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Prinsburg: you might find this site interesting, although the blog owner set this site up to grade our local media mets by predicting snowfall amounts at MSP, there are some of us that talk about systems as a whole. Be aware there are a lot of Debbie Downers that frequent the site, some say they moved to MN from the NE US to experience a true MN winter, some even from the Mid Atlantic......what do you want, live out there with almost know snow? Or see our snow covered winters. If they want 2ft snowfalls once in their lives they should have stayed out there. If you go there just sign your post with something I will recognize. http://www.minnesotaforecaster.com/2013/02/you-be-grader.html?showComment=1360909936277#c718351934227236781 alright, i'll take a look in the morning...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 02/15 0z Euro just absolutely clocks the area that I mentioned in the start of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Big question is not the trough itself, oddly enough, but the northern stream interference. 00z GEFS RMOP shows that there is still quite a bit of variability with the first trough that develops across the Great Lakes ahead of the trough ejecting into the plains. 12z CMC shows what a suppressed solution would look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z ECMWF is looking very non-suppressed through day 5 aloft...although the surface ridge down the plains is very stout. That verbatim would lead to some impressive frontogenesis in a verbatim solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z euro once again caves to the gfs on a north track...wonder if the cmc upgrade made a difference at all?...awful model lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z euro once again caves to the gfs on a north track...wonder if the cmc upgrade made a difference at all?...awful model lately. 12z ECMWF definitely went N...looks very similar to the GFS. GEFS also really backed off on northern stream suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z ECMWF definitely went N...looks very similar to the GFS. GEFS also really backed off on northern stream suppression. 12z euro hammers nebraska with qpf of 1.00 + in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z ECMWF definitely went N...looks very similar to the GFS. GEFS also really backed off on northern stream suppression. Us further east are worried it spins up too fast then occludes and kinda craps itself out as it heads ENE. But still many days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z euro mean at 168hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0z ggem caves and now in the northern track camp...so much for the upgrade... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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