IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm officially reeled in now. Definitely interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The coastal areas yes, sometimes ATL/RDU/BHM can get big snows from the same storms we do, its pretty rare though for CHS/HAT to do so though, sort of the same for Virginia Beach yea. CLT is sort of in between. the biggest snowstorms Ive looked into, precip never made it past Ocean City, MD latitude. im sure there are storms Im missing as I havent found all of the top 10 snowstorms. Im sure after the first 5, it is decline to pathetic amounts. my heart is still in the NE though, Ive been tracking the storms the past couple weeks with you guys as if I never left...I cant seem to let go lol. winter down here is really boring. If the GFS is onto something and the euro backs it up tonight, a flight back to CT is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A solid advisory event for here on the GFS, from about Fairfield east it's .5"+ Much improved trend, probably 3-5" here verbatim(Guessing around .35" or so with decent ratios), and if we can get this general theme to play out would not be suprised to see an increase in the QPF as we get closer. Nice start to 0z, lets see what everything else does. (Well, the 0z that we care about, excluding the NAM) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This run does bring .25 line to NYC and Jersey shore, surface is below freezing. Some sickening potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Did JB actually say blizzard..what are the chances of a blizzard watch this wknd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This setup reeks of 2/23/89 all over, even the 500mb pattern looks similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So painfully close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's a monster on the GFS, and just SO close. It would take a very slight shift closer to the coast with this bring us significant if not a heavy snowfall. I would like to the Euro get on board with this before alarming the public. If the Euro does not get on board, the odds are this is an extremely near miss. But I would not declare this over yet, that's for sure! WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So painfully close. That probably isn't even the final solution. Massive changes from both 12z and 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 UKMET appears as if its a miss though it does have the band of light snow early SAT as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ukmet lost the big storm has some light snow sat associated with the arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Did JB actually say blizzard..what are the chances of a blizzard watch this wknd? 10% in my opinion at this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This setup reeks of 2/23/89 all over, even the 500mb pattern looks similar would love to hear about that blizzard and how this set up is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Let's see what the other models show I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Very tricky as dance between front runner and major digging in back continues. current snow amounts.I expect w shift pic.twitter.com/Gur2cazk Says Bastardi. But then again lets be frank doesnt he ALWAYS expect a more extreme solution ( in order to draw paying customers..same Joe as he was with Accu) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This setup reeks of 2/23/89 all over, even the 500mb pattern looks similar http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0223.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0223.php 3/2/09 also could be tossed in there, that was a successful version of the 2/23/89 storm, this is similar to that as well although the evolution out of the southern portion of the trof is not terribly similar, the orientation of the 500mb overall is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Unless the Euro shows something similar to the gfs then I'm not buying it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 would love to hear about that blizzard and how this set up is similar You don't want to hear about it-it missed us. It was a big S NJ and I believe eastern LI and Cape Cod special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ukie is just like the Nam. Model wars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 would love to hear about that blizzard and how this set up is similar Winter storm warnings and not even a flake up this way...1 to 2 feet from ocean county nj down to coastal Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Saw the GFS, big potential here but I'm again just at the intrigued stage. A minor correction here or there could blow this up or knock the whole house of cards over. If the Euro still appears lame, it's probably a "next...." for me. I'd really want some other guidance to consistently show an amped solution at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ukie is just like the Nam. Model wars. it also recently showed a big hit for Sat....not exactly consistent. kinda makes sense its hanging with the nam, both with large variance outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As others have said, the GFS is fairly close to significant snows up and down the east coast. But I think it will end up a western outlier based on what I have seen from the NAM, UK, and RGEM. Coastal mid-Atlantic might get a surprise snow out of this. Still a little time but odds are long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This setup reeks of 2/23/89 all over, even the 500mb pattern looks similar This setup reeks of 2/23/89 all over, even the 500mb pattern looks similar was that teh famous AC snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So so far for 0z we have NAM/UKIE vs RGEM(extrapolating)/GFS. GGEM and EURO still to go, the latter of course what we all are waiting for(Although the new GGEM could be intresting, we don't know how good the upgrade for it was though.) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As others have said, the GFS is fairly close to significant snows up and down the east coast. But I think it will end up a western outlier based on what I have seen from the NAM, UK, and RGEM. Coastal mid-Atlantic might get a surprise snow out of this. Still a little time but odds are long. Yeah I'm not betting on this one and I really doubt the Euro will show anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nice improvements from 18z to 0z: Select forecast qpf (2/17/2013 0z through 2/19/2013 0z): Boston: 0.51" Bridgeport: 0.29" Groton: 0.77" Hartford: 0.22" Islip: 0.47" New Haven: 0.37" New York City: ...JFK: 0.19" ...LGA: 0.14" ...NYC: 0.12" Newark: 0.10" Poughkeepsie: 0.05" Providence: 0.63" Westhampton: 0.75" White Plains: 0.13" Worcester: 0.41" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ukie is just like the Nam. Model wars. The storm seems to want to get going too late and too far east-something pretty major is needed for this to develop in time for us. Longitude is definitely working in New England's favor again and I could see Boston getting walloped by this. Doesn't mean we get no snow however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GFS is just such a bad model on systems coming out of the south that I would not move til the Euro jumps on this, it showed signs at 12Z it was starting to try and do something but outside of 12/26/10 the GFS has not scored too many wins on these sort of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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