nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At 21 HR, the H5 trof is less positively tilted which is good. Precip over Appalachia is breaking out but not as intense as 18z. and 18z was far weaker than 12 z right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 21Z ARW has basically zero for us...this is interesting because the ARW members of the SREF had loads of snow for us at 15Z...surey explains the pull back of the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hr 30 nam has light preciep up to sandy hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it is still the nam so its not officially over....but hanging by a thread for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hr 30 nam has light preciep up to sandy hook Hr 30 nam has light preciep up to sandy hook that intensity of precip will be non-existent in real life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hr 33 light snow in area. Very light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just a reminder that this is not a chat room. "Gfs started" and "ugh" posts will be deleted and repeat offenders will have 5 post per day restrictions. It's ridiculous that Doug and I have to spend our entire day deleting posts because they literally add no substance to the discussion. Thanks in advance ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hr 33 light snow in area. Very light Hr 33 light snow in area. Very light all you gotta do is look at the h8 map...this has almost no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 that intensity of precip will be non-existent in real life Yep. 12z was a burp run. Nothing going to happen this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 There is not one positive thing that I can say about this run. It practically has nothing going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yep. 12z was a burp run. Nothing going to happen this run Wonder what caused the models to freak out like they did? Anyway, pending big turnarounds tonight, this threat's done. Just too progressive a trough and too sheared out. Story of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wonder what caused the models to freak out like they did? Anyway, pending big turnarounds tonight, this threat's done. Just too progressive a trough and too sheared out. Story of the winter. Something in the balloons or digested a bit of bad data? Real big burp as most had 12+ for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam looks terrible, flurries for all. Agree with some of the others, wonder what caused 12z to freak out? Something must have been in the data that screwed the models up, the question is what, and why didn't the EURO get the data, or is it smart enough to figure out that it was no good? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wonder what caused the models to freak out like they did? Anyway, pending big turnarounds tonight, this threat's done. Just too progressive a trough and too sheared out. Story of the winter. Be happy we got one even though we missed out on the huge stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when isopleths on the h5 map are tightly bunched you know nothing good can happen...there needs to be spacing.. just look at hr36, the 528DCM to 570DCM are all tightly lined up...blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 There is not one positive thing that I can say about this run. It practically has nothing going for it. The snow chase is like a chess match .95% of time there will be a winner and a loser. we have to accept reality and move on to next 1. and in realizty to next winter if necessary. Every late Feb people get desperate around NYC because they realize the temps will rise soon and odds go drastically down and on average we get 5.0 inches in March. so yes pic isnt bright but sadlt it is what it is and we dont control the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 when isopleths on the h5 map are tightly bunched you know nothing good can happen...there needs to be spacing.. just look at hr36, the 528DCM to 570DCM are all tightly lined up...blah The vort over North/Western New York State is too far east on all of the new models since 18z. This serves to supress the upper level flow over the Northeast US and the surface low swings out farther east when the shortwave over the MS Valley finally ejects out of the trough base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam looks terrible, flurries for all. Agree with some of the others, wonder what caused 12z to freak out? Something must have been in the data that screwed the models up, the question is what, and why didn't the EURO get the data, or is it smart enough to figure out that it was no good? -skisheep Your question is something I have wondered about for a long time. I'm sure all the models use the same physics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 obviously not a good start but come on,storm over based on the nam? at least wait for the rest of models to come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 question for mets: these two maps dont jive at all - there is absolutely no continuity between the h5 and h8 panels...why is that??? basically, my question is, why does h8 seem swung out so far east ahead of the h5 energy. you dont usually see this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The vort over North/Western New York State is too far east on all of the new models since 18z. This serves to supress the upper level flow over the Northeast US and the surface low swings out farther east when the shortwave over the MS Valley finally ejects out of the trough base. The vort over North/Western New York State is too far east on all of the new models since 18z. This serves to supress the upper level flow over the Northeast US and the surface low swings out farther east when the shortwave over the MS Valley finally ejects out of the trough base. seems a bit further west on this run than 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 question for mets: these two maps dont jive at all - there is absolutely no continuity between the h5 and h8 panels...why is that??? Essentially the same reason there is no "jiving" between the H5 and surface... different forcing mechanisms at work at different levels of the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Essentially the same reason there is no "jiving" between the H5 and surface... different forcing mechanisms at work at different levels of the atmosphere. Essentially the same reason there is no "jiving" between the H5 and surface... different forcing mechanisms at work at different levels of the atmosphere. thanks....this isnt typical for an h5 setup like this...is it? looking at the h5 map, id expect an slp on the SC/GA border and a closed H8 low in western Tenn...only in the winter of 2012-2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think the models are killing are snow along the arctic front, in favor for more development first coastal low offshore. On the NAM, the slp was further west than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Your question is something I have wondered about for a long time. I'm sure all the models use the same physics. Basic physics, yes, but there are things that are too small (micro-scale and meso-scale processes) which the models can't directly simulate, so these are "parameterized". Parameterizations differ between models and this does have some effect on the outcome. Other things such as how new data is assimilated into the model, terrain forcing, and of course resolution also affect model outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 The last shortwave that hits the base of the trough around 48 hours is the one that we have to keep an eye on I think. That's kicking off surface low development near the carolina coast....but the entire set up is a hair too progressive and it winds up kicking just barely east. Said this earlier but the first thing I noticed about this set up a few days ago was that it just seemed to be displaced to the east a little bit too much. And it looks like that's coming back to hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 thanks....this isnt typical for an h5 setup like this...is it? looking at the h5 map, id expect an slp on the SC/GA border and a closed H8 low in western Tenn...only in the winter of 2012-2013 The most basic thing which you can understand from looking at upper level (300 or 250 mb is better than 500) and the surface is where confluence and diffluence are. Confluence aloft promotes high pressure at the surface and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At 51 HR, H5 is going negatively tilted and we miss out on something big by 6-8 hrs. I think the NAM is having difficulty with determining which vort to focus in on. The first vort does not produce any signficant SLP, but instead, the second blows up off Cape Hatteras. The last shortwave that hits the base of the trough around 48 hours is the one that we have to keep an eye on I think. That's kicking off surface low development near the carolina coast....but the entire set up is a hair too progressive and it winds up kicking just barely east. Said this earlier but the first thing I noticed about this set up a few days ago was that it just seemed to be displaced to the east a little bit too much. And it looks like that's coming back to hurt us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The last shortwave that hits the base of the trough around 48 hours is the one that we have to keep an eye on I think. That's kicking off surface low development near the carolina coast....but the entire set up is a hair too progressive and it winds up kicking just barely east. Said this earlier but the first thing I noticed about this set up a few days ago was that it just seemed to be displaced to the east a little bit too much. And it looks like that's coming back to hurt us. The last shortwave that hits the base of the trough around 48 hours is the one that we have to keep an eye on I think. That's kicking off surface low development near the carolina coast....but the entire set up is a hair too progressive and it winds up kicking just barely east. Said this earlier but the first thing I noticed about this set up a few days ago was that it just seemed to be displaced to the east a little bit too much. And it looks like that's coming back to hurt us. the trough would need to be going negative for us to have a shot and it isnt, yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The most basic thing which you can understand from looking at upper level (300 or 250 mb is better than 500) and the surface is where confluence and diffluence are. Confluence aloft promotes high pressure at the surface and vice versa. The most basic thing which you can understand from looking at upper level (300 or 250 mb is better than 500) and the surface is where confluence and diffluence are. Confluence aloft promotes high pressure at the surface and vice versa. look at h3, are the colors off the south east coast indicative of the diffluence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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