eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC latest qpf map is quite robust for the area - they are really sticking their necks out on this one http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif Well that's what 12z guidance looked like minus the Euro. I think the frontogenic stuff out ahead of the Sat wave fizzles, so this will probably be too wet. But several models still show something similar, and 0z could easily bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly, people's lives would be much better and forecasting accuracy would increase if one were to look at the 12z Euro run and its ensembles each day. That's it, just one model run a day and things get much more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wait. People getting over-excited about one model run's QPF? You don't say! Weird dynamics in this forum. At 12z we have the GFS, GGEM, and SREF ensembles with robust QPF and large spread. We have a highly anomalous trof, poor inter and intra model continuity, and lots of people urging low confidence, low chance of big snow. Then 18z comes around and shifts the SURFACE FEATURES slightly east and we have people calling bust. The situation is exactly as it was 6 hours ago. The lead wave did not continue a westward trend this cycle, but the 18z GFS run is cleanly within the spread of current ensemble guidance. Maybe people got too excited about the QPF on a few of the 12z model runs. But if you look at the GGEM and GFS again, you can see how NYC was on the SW fringe of good QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 anyone here know for a fact that the weather balloons are not released for the off hours runs 6Z and 18Z model runs data input ? If they aren't shouldn't every days off hour runs just be ignored ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Life would be better if the Euro was the only model that existed or the only model that the public had access to. I just chuckle when I see the JIL, TSK, XYZ models posted. If it's significant enough for me to watch it, then chances are that the Euro will get it right. Honestly, people's lives would be much better and forecasting accuracy would increase if one were to look at the 12z Euro run and its ensembles each day. That's it, just one model run a day and things get much more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly, people's lives would be much better and forecasting accuracy would increase if one were to look at the 12z Euro run and its ensembles each day. That's it, just one model run a day and things get much more clear. Probably right. Too many models with crap solutions to confuse mets and enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Life would be better if the Euro was the only model that existed or the only model that the public had access to. I just chuckle when I see the JIL, TSK, XYZ models posted. If it's significant enough for me to watch it, then chances are that the Euro will get it right. Apparently the 18z Mauritanian upped the QPF big time and has a 976mb bomb SE of Montauk. 2 feet of snow in 12 hours. Everybody take cover and hide your daughters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 0z runs should hopefully let us know more if this threat has legs or if models at 12z were just pulling our chain, but this was always a long shot for us regardless in such a progressive pattern. As soon as this trough might be able to dig and develop something, the next S/W is pressing it east before it can happen. Just can't seem to win. The 18z runs backing off is telling you that the Euro was correct in this mostly being a New England event with lighter amounts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It seems like there have been two storm tracks this year. Nebraska to the UP of Michigan and Hatteras to Georges Bank. Not much of anything in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Why is everyone jumping off a cliff based off 18z runs? Wait till 0z . The 18z runs backing off is telling you that the Euro was correct in this mostly being a New England event with lighter amounts here. It tells you that the models don't have a clue yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 18z runs backing off is telling you that the Euro was correct in this mostly being a New England event with lighter amounts here. how can you say that for sure ? there seems to be a few folks in various forums claiming key data from weather balloons only released at 0Z and 12Z was missing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's what people say when they don't agree with the Euro forecast. Just like how the GFS was going to win big with the storm last night. It's foolish to give up right now. This is a complex pattern. It can easily trend closer to the coast once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gefs are less amp'd for the most part than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gefs are less amp'd for the most part than 12z What's the big difference between the two runs? Quite a big difference in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is from an accuweather post about forecast models 2. Look at model trends. If the low pressure moved east with this run, what did it do the run before that? For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias. I have heard from people ( even from mets ) that the off runs aren't reliable. Although, I remember them starting trends in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is from an accuweather post about forecast models 2. Look at model trends. If the low pressure moved east with this run, what did it do the run before that? For the GFS, look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available; in the U.S. these runs don't include the weather balloon network data (balloons are only sent up twice per day), and are therefore radically different and more likely to have bias. and that explains why many 18Z models were different then 12Z - we will know for sure at 0Z ..............makes sense the same thing was happening last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GEFS much drier. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72072.gif But they almost always cluster around the op. The Euro ensembles looked a little better than the op at 12z and the RGEM still looked pretty good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I have heard from people ( even from mets ) that the off runs aren't reliable. Although, I remember them starting trends in the past. As stated in my post, in general they are not reliable as they are missing KEY data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Life would be better if the Euro was the only model that existed or the only model that the public had access to. I just chuckle when I see the JIL, TSK, XYZ models posted. If it's significant enough for me to watch it, then chances are that the Euro will get it right. The Euro did not even see this storm last night that gave some locations an inch of snow until only a couple of days ago. It may have the highest overall accuracy scores, but right now it is the last model I would pick to determine what is going to happen with this storm. It is not handling the pattern very well as evidenced by how it thought this last storm was going off the North Carolina coast and was the absolutely last model to figure out it was not. It also until the run this morning did not see anything happening in our area and had this storm for Saturday WAY off the coast until this morning, now it gives us 2 inches of snow. The ONLY model to be consistent has been the UKMET and it has the most vigorous solution. I would put my money on it, if I had to pick one. This is one of those rare instances such as December 26, 2010 when we have a volatile situation where this could be a massive storm for our area, or a complete miss. All the possible solutions are on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GEFS much drier. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72072.gif But they almost always cluster around the op. The Euro ensembles looked a little better than the op at 12z and the RGEM still looked pretty good to me. The RGEM cut back on the amount of QPF it was showing from Southern to Central Jersey this run. 18z has the heaviest NE of the city like the 12z Euro did. It looks like a light event here with better chances the further into New England that you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's foolish to give up right now. This is a complex pattern. It can easily trend closer to the coast once again. We are running out of time with the 18z runs backing off from from 12z for anything more than a light event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Really, so you are saying an official accuweather post is flat out false? And how would you know this? 18 Z and 6 Z models are just as reliable as the 00z and 12 Z models. They all have new data digested into them. That is just a weather myth that people use to dismiss models that do not show what they want them to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18 Z and 6 Z models are just as reliable as the 00z and 12 Z models. They all have new data digested into them. That is just a weather myth that people use to dismiss models that do not show what they want them to show. This is true, but if you are missing the balloon data, how could the models that run at 18z possibly be anywhere near as good as those that are run at 12z and 0z with this data? Sure, the data is newer, but will that offset the fact that you don't have balloon data? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 18z run is based on 12z RAOb data, but it also includes updated satellite observations, as well as other data. I'm on my cell right now.and don't have time to write a full explanation, if you do a search on this forum you'll find pro Mets discussing this topic in detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This event is very questionable, the models are showing the 500MB setting up well. However, as the trough starts to go negative it is shove to far east so most of the projected snow is light and scattered. The 12Z runs were starting to show an interesting trend, then the GOD of all models the ECMWF held tight to the one inch forecast for NYC. Next the 18Z models come out which are not as reliable as the 12Z and 00Z runs are now agreeing with the ECMWF. Normally I would discount them, but since they are looking more like the consistent ECMWF I think they are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's what people say when they don't agree with the Euro forecast. Just like how the GFS was going to win big with the storm last night. I haven't been around to look at anything for this Saturday potential, but regarding the storm last night, the GFS definitely beat the Euro overall on its forecasts the past several days. 3" totals were recorded as far north as Morris County NJ. Widespread 1-3" across eastern PA and portions of north and south Jersey. It was not up to some of the GFS runs that had 3-6" for PA/NJ, but I consider it much closer than the Euro's run after run of no precip north of the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Will that magically make the Euro give me the 16" of snow it promised me last week? Or the 5" in promised me in December? (; The general theme of the Euro was spot on. The heaviest snow was always forecast to increase the further Northeast that you went. It just took closer to event time to refine the extent of the back edge. The NAM had several OTS runs and a run or two with the heaviest precip too far west near NYC. The GFS was consistently too far east right up until the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I haven't been around to look at anything for this Saturday potential, but regarding the storm last night, the GFS definitely beat the Euro overall on its forecasts the past several days. 3" totals were recorded as far north as Morris County NJ. Widespread 1-3" across eastern PA and portions of north and south Jersey. It was not up to some of the GFS runs that had 3-6" for PA/NJ, but I consider it much closer than the Euro's run after run of no precip north of the Mason Dixon line. EXACTLY!!! The Euro is not handling this pattern well, in fact it is handling it the worst of all the models. The UKMET has been steadfast with this storm possibility for a couple of days now and it has the most vigorous solution. The EC and GFS have both been all over the place and have been trending toward what the UKMET has been showing, albeit in baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The funny thing here is that everyone is saying, look at how little the Euro shows, but look at the trend of the Euro. It had nothing only a couple of runs ago, then one inch this morning, then two inches this afternoon. The trend is your friend. Instead of looking at it that it has the least precip, look at it that it is trending with a more vigorous system. That is what is important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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