Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 48 some light snow along coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What the heck happened with the 18z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 51 all dry total qpf about .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow gfs just lost it. Way east. Lol Not surprised at all, with the kicker in the west...that trough remains progressive and doesn't amplify quick enough. As we all know the euro gets a handle on the big solutions much quicker than any other model. I would never bet against it at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What the heck happened with the 18z runs? It took them one cycle more to see what the Euro saw at 12z. Euro wins again....next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It took them one cycle more to see what the Euro saw at 12z. Euro wins again....next... Not over yet. Lets see what 0z says tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I really wonder why they would print a snow map yet with amounts on the table from 0-12 inches. In fact in their discussion they R even higher with accumilations ..clearly working with Euro as outlier : 2-4 inches for most with possibility of 6+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It took them one cycle more to see what the Euro saw at 12z. Euro wins again....next... To be fair euro gives sne 3-6 of snow. 18z runs have nothing for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What the heck happened with the 18z runs? Not much at all. If you compare the upper levels on the RGEM and GFS with their previous run, the differences are minor. What we are seeing is a decreased emphasis on the lead wave (early Sat) and more emphasis on the main show (late Sat into Sun). In the case of the 18z GFS, the slightest rounding in the contours (and therefore slightly lower heights), pushes the boundary and QPF eastward. The southern vort actually looks a bit more potent this run, but it probably can't recover in time to pump heights along the coast. We could be moving towards more of a feast or famine scenario, as opposed to the light to moderate possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not over yet. Lets see what 0z says tonight. It's going to snow in most places....the question is how much. Not a good idea to bail on one model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 When I was a kid I used to watch Andre the GIant wrestle 20 guys. 1 by 1 he would toss them over the top rope. At the end of the match. There were 20 little idiots looking up at this one giant. Those 20 little idiots have now found a home in the global modeling we see and the GIANT is going strong. Will wait for the giant Way too much variance from run to run , should give you reason to pause period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's just not going to happen guys. The SREF's were skewed by a few very amped up ARW members. The NAM/GFS/GGEM and ECMWF are now all in agreement that this is basically a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 18z GFS actually does now look a lot more like the 12z Euro aloft. But the difference between these "misses" and a more robust solution is a relatively minor change in height orientation. The ensemble spread is wide (as it often is in highly anomalous situations), so more intra cycle and intr model changes are likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You guys have to remember that balloons are only launched twice a day, so the 3-d atmospheric data will be off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's going to snow in most places....the question is how much. Not a good idea to bail on one model suite.If the 18z runs are correct, it may snow, just not more than flurries, but there may be snow flakes in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And 18z runs not really reliable in general This is not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 18z GFS actually does now look a lot more like the 12z Euro aloft. But the difference between these "misses" and a more robust solution is a relatively minor change in height orientation. The ensemble spread is wide (as it often is in highly anomalous situations), so more intra cycle and intr model changes are likely. I couldn't agree more, was just comparing the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If they are not reliable, why so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And 18z runs not really reliable in general another weather myth - what was not reliable was this storm - just about everything had to fall in place perfectly for this storm to verify - thread the needle event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not much at all. If you compare the upper levels on the RGEM and GFS with their previous run, the differences are minor. What we are seeing is a decreased emphasis on the lead wave (early Sat) and more emphasis on the main show (late Sat into Sun). In the case of the 18z GFS, the slightest rounding in the contours (and therefore slightly lower heights), pushes the boundary and QPF eastward. The southern vort actually looks a bit more potent this run, but it probably can't recover in time to pump heights along the coast. We could be moving towards more of a feast or famine scenario, as opposed to the light to moderate possibility. Given that the energy out west is able to progress further east and shift the trough axis further east as times goes on, it makes it hard for the feast scenario to work out, IMO. Of course this is a very volatile situation and bears watching of course, but it's going to be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Where have we seen this before???(Hint: GFS had warning snow a few days ago for last night, EURO had nothing/close to nothing and it won). Not throwing in the towel yet, and will wait for 0z to get the full picture, but this GFS and the 12z GFS couldn't have been further apart, and I think this one is going to be much closer to reality. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What the heck happened with the 18z runs? What the heck happened with the 18z runs? um they saw what the euro has seen for a while? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If they are not reliable, why so? Like I stated before weather balloons only sent out twice a day, for oz and 12z runs. 6z and 18z don't have the 3-d atmospheric data which can affect intialiaztion among other things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Weird dynamics in this forum. At 12z we have the GFS, GGEM, and SREF ensembles with robust QPF and large spread. We have a highly anomalous trof, poor inter and intra model continuity, and lots of people urging low confidence, low chance of big snow. Then 18z comes around and shifts the SURFACE FEATURES slightly east and we have people calling bust. The situation is exactly as it was 6 hours ago. The lead wave did not continue a westward trend this cycle, but the 18z GFS run is cleanly within the spread of current ensemble guidance. Maybe people got too excited about the QPF on a few of the 12z model runs. But if you look at the GGEM and GFS again, you can see how NYC was on the SW fringe of good QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 0z runs should hopefully let us know more if this threat has legs or if models at 12z were just pulling our chain, but this was always a long shot for us regardless in such a progressive pattern. As soon as this trough might be able to dig and develop something, the next S/W is pressing it east before it can happen. Just can't seem to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 anyone look at the 15Z SREF plumes??? One has 28.67" of snow at JFK, the mean is 7.03" The avg of the ARW members is over 16", LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I feel like this is a bad soap opera. Too much drama this winter. Give us this weekend and the 22 with at least 12" snows for all, and we'll be satiated until hurricane season when we'll ask for another Gloria-type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Weird dynamics in this forum. At 12z we have the GFS, GGEM, and SREF ensembles with robust QPF and large spread. We have a highly anomalous trof, poor inter and intra model continuity, and lots of people urging low confidence, low chance of big snow. Then 18z comes around and shifts the SURFACE FEATURES slightly east and we have people calling bust. The situation is exactly as it was 6 hours ago. The lead wave did not continue a westward trend this cycle, but the 18z GFS run is cleanly within the spread of current ensemble guidance. Maybe people got too excited about the QPF on a few of the 12z model runs. But if you look at the GGEM and GFS again, you can see how NYC was on the SW fringe of good QPF. HPC latest qpf map is quite robust for the area - they are really sticking their necks out on this one http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Given that the energy out west is able to progress further east and shift the trough axis further east as times goes on, it makes it hard for the feast scenario to work out, IMO. Of course this is a very volatile situation and bears watching of course, but it's going to be tough. I would bet on a miss. Maybe eastern NE gets something. I don't like scenarios where you have to rely on a rapidly developing surface low retrograding off the Atlantic. But several models have periodically shown how it could happen, and what would result, so I have to keep checking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC latest snowfall probs http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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