MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z NAM is a dry offshore run. But upper levels are still changing significantly each run. This solution is well within the SREF envelope. Blizzard and whiff both on the table. Grazer locally to moderate snowstorm for NE best guess for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I wouldn't always go with the Euro but I don't think this will pan out to be anything more than a few inches as of right now. I think the Euro may have the right idea in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 00z Global Models will be very telling. 18z GFS will be the canary in the coal mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Upton just updated forcast from 40% rain/snow and no accum to Snow Likely 60% with 1-3 inches http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=99&map.y=204&site=OKX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not surprising that we lost the nam, never really gave much value to its crazy flip flopping solutions anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The NAM completely lost the potent s/w that it had last night in Pa and NY for Fri night into Sat. Pretty dramatic change for those who want to take a look (sorry can't add images right now). These runs were printing out >.5 liquid for CPA into CNY and a surface towards Quebec City. Losing this s/w seemingly opens the door for a complete miss, but also might allow the main trof energy some room to amplify and mature. We need these next two cycles to deliver. The seasonal track is offshore. We need to break the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not surprising that we lost the nam, never really gave much value to its crazy flip flopping solutions anyways The remarkable thing was the 18Z NAM actually appeared to have the trough be overall more negatively tilted than the 12Z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GGEM mean.25 + for NYC and more in LI and SNE. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The NAM completely lost the potent s/w that it had last night in Pa and NY for Fri night into Sat. Pretty dramatic change for those who want to take a look (sorry can't add images right now). These runs were printing out >.5 liquid for CPA into CNY and a surface towards Quebec City. Losing this s/w seemingly opens the door for a complete miss, but also might allow the main trof energy some room to amplify and mature. We need these next two cycles to deliver. The seasonal track is offshore. We need to break the pattern. If that energy coming off the pacific does crash into that western ridge as is being depicted on the nam, it spells big trouble. Everything gets pushed east, sets up an unfavorable trough structure and we just miss out, but then again it's the nam... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Upton just updated forcast from 40% rain/snow and no accum to Snow Likely 60% with 1-3 inches http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=okx&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=99&map.y=204&site=OKX I really wonder why they would print a snow map yet with amounts on the table from 0-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 High Res Nam is a close miss also I really wonder why they would print a snow map yet with amounts on the table from 0-12 inches. They have been bullish this winter for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 High Res Nam is a close miss also You mean a close hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You mean a close hit? Yes http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=18ℑ=nam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_057_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Upton A COASTAL LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL TRACK JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS LOW COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY TO AREAS NEAR NEW YORK CITY AND POINTS EAST. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=HWO&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yes eastern li and new england look good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The remarkable thing was the 18Z NAM actually appeared to have the trough be overall more negatively tilted than the 12Z run did. It did. The lead wave has evaporated, resulting in higher heights and no QPF on Saturday. So our hopes would have to rest with the follow up s/w, which is more or less tied to the longwave trof evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GGEM mean.25 + for NYC and more in LI and SNE. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/cmcensemble/12zggemensemblep12060.gif That's pretty wet, especially over SNE. Supports the GGEM pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It did. The lead wave has evaporated, resulting in higher heights and no QPF on Saturday. So our hopes would have to rest with the follow up s/w, which is more or less tied to the longwave trof evolution. Our hopes should never rest with the nam. Why are we all upset - lets wait for 0z suite before we make judgements. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 RGEM at 48 hours. Better than the Nam. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Our hopes should never rest with the nam. Why are we all upset - lets wait for 0z suite before we make judgements. Rossi Of course. Was just referencing the NAM evolution specifically. To get a moderate or better snowstorm, we almost certainly need the longwave trof to tilt and cutoff in a fashion roughly similar to the 12z GGEM/UK/GFS, allowing a SLP center to back a little closer to the coast, and potentially linger as its pulled back towards the upper level low. Last nights guidance was primarily giving us light and moderate QPF from a lead wave on Fri night into Sat that sharpens up the upper right quadrant of the trof. The main trof and follow up impulse had been mostly a miss (save for a few nogaps and UK runs). The NAM was originally most notable in amplifying the Sat s/w, but has since backed off completely. The huge spread of the SREF tells the tale right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 RGEM at 48 hours. Better than the Nam. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg That's the 12z. 18z is way less amped. Looks like there was a blip in the 12z data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's the 12z. 18z is way less amped. Looks like there was a blip in the 12z data. Just saw. Weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just saw. Weaker.yea and by quite a bit from 12z too. Looks like the short term high res models lost it, should be interesting to see what the gfs does now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's the 12z. 18z is way less amped. Looks like there was a blip in the 12z data. Less amped how? If anything to me it looks further west with the QPF associated with the Sat wave. It's not overly wet though. But the 12z GEM was a late bloomer, so it's difficult to know what it would do beyond 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What a waste of a trough. I gurantee you that if this was April, we would be looking at 3-5" of rain with a trough like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 39 light snow up to ewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't see the RGEM as being weaker at all. Don't be fooled by QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks pretty good, lead vort is stronger than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow gfs just lost it. Way east. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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