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February 16th-17th Potential Winter Storm Part II


earthlight

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18z RAP looks good, for us Long Islanders. GFS is good for us too. The 18z GFS will be the difference between getting a hit and getting a flake. I say 1-2" here.

 

Thanks for the info.

 

I also see the NWS forecast discussion is showing 1 - 3" from W to E in Suffolk.

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What if all the models are ALL wrong, and this comes in 50-100 miles west, and everyone gets 5-10" without a model showing those amounts. Imagine the hype :P Enjoy long island, this is your winter :)

Wouldn't that be something:). I give it a 1% chance if not less. Maybe a 20 mile shift but nothing else, trough has came in a bit more vertical.

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WWA for my area....

 

 

...A PLOWABLE SNOW EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...


CTZ008-011-012-NYZ079-081-170445-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.130217T0100Z-130217T1600Z/
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
336 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW LONDON COUNTY...EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...AND
  SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...THE STRONG WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF NEAR
  BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR
  LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
  SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL
  MAKE TRAVELING DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

MALOIT


 

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What if all the models are ALL wrong, and this comes in 50-100 miles west, and everyone gets 5-10" without a model showing those amounts. Imagine the hype :P Enjoy long island, this is your winter :)

The only way I can see anything like that happening is if a banded feature sets up 30 to 50 miles away west from the oceanic CCB that developes tonight. You can almost see the semblance of one beginning to form SSW of Philly on the KDOX radar. If that feature were to develop, it would likely train over the same spot blessing those under it while everyone away from it, on either side gets nothing. Of course I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could.

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I'm thinking about living around Orange/Rockland County. Those locations tend to receive more snow on a normal winter or even a below average performing winter for the NE/MD-ATL.

If you could just move a little farther north in Westchester and gain a few hundred feet elevation, you would do better. I have 37" seasonal here at 350' in Dobbs Ferry. My mom taught in Mt Vernon like 12 years and they always had a lot less snow and snowpack...She had to burn sick days sometimes when roads were bad in the hills here.

Parts of northern Westchester like Katonah and Pound Ridge have houses near 800' that must average 45" a season. Of course I had 70" in both 09-10 and 10-11 here in Dobbs Ferry.

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apparently the mods have abdicated here and its just a freeforall now..wow

I can't be here all day, every day. It's extremely disappointing that so many people don't think before they post. There are so many posts here that add nothing to the discussion. It's even more disappointing because myself and the other mods in here work very hard to keep things organized.

Unfortunately it looks like we're going to be forced to start handing out 5 post per day restrictions.

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I can't be here all day, every day. It's extremely disappointing that so many people don't think before they post. There are so many posts here that add nothing to the discussion. It's even more disappointing because myself and the other mods in here work very hard to keep things organized.

Unfortunately it looks like we're going to be forced to start handing out 5 post per day restrictions.

People are just frustrated because a lot of threats like 12/29, 2/14 and tonight have trended poorly as we approached the event. However most of the area is above clump for snowfall. I've hit average
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The most distressing part is that the weenism and OT stuff increases around possible storms when there is more traffic and when most of us who want to learn the science and increase our anlyatical model reading ability jupm in here. I believe you were a member of Easternweather Earthlight and if im correct then you know the formula that made that forum so successful: multiple very gifted mets who kept the discourse elevated and forced the weenies to the side. I hope things get better & thx 4 your efforts

I can't be here all day, every day. It's extremely disappointing that so many people don't think before they post. There are so many posts here that add nothing to the discussion. It's even more disappointing because myself and the other mods in here work very hard to keep things organized.

Unfortunately it looks like we're going to be forced to start handing out 5 post per day restrictions.

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