TWCCraig Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z RAP looks good, for us Long Islanders. GFS is good for us too. The 18z GFS will be the difference between getting a hit and getting a flake. I say 1-2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Accuweather's radar. It doesn't look bad. http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar?play=1 Virga, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z RAP looks good, for us Long Islanders. GFS is good for us too. The 18z GFS will be the difference between getting a hit and getting a flake. I say 1-2" here. Thanks for the info. I also see the NWS forecast discussion is showing 1 - 3" from W to E in Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Here are the 15z SREF Plumes for KISP. Mean is 1.47" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 18z RAP looks good, for us Long Islanders. GFS is good for us too. The 18z GFS will be the difference between getting a hit and getting a flake. I say 1-2" here. No, reality is the difference, not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 No, reality is the difference, not the GFS. I'm not talking reality, what I meant was what the GFS will show. It's basically the same as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What if all the models are ALL wrong, and this comes in 50-100 miles west, and everyone gets 5-10" without a model showing those amounts. Imagine the hype Enjoy long island, this is your winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What if all the models are ALL wrong, and this comes in 50-100 miles west, and everyone gets 5-10" without a model showing those amounts. Imagine the hype Enjoy long island, this is your winter Wouldn't that be something:). I give it a 1% chance if not less. Maybe a 20 mile shift but nothing else, trough has came in a bit more vertical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 WWA for my area.... ...A PLOWABLE SNOW EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVEREASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY AND MOST OF SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT...CTZ008-011-012-NYZ079-081-170445-/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.130217T0100Z-130217T1600Z/NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-336 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO11 AM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THISEVENING TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY.* LOCATIONS...NEW LONDON COUNTY...EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.* VISIBILITIES...THE STRONG WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVELING DIFFICULT AT TIMES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...ORFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FORSLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILEDRIVING.&&$$MALOIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The twin forks have been under moderate snow for over an hour now. Congrats eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The twin forks have been under moderate snow for over an hour now. Congrats eastern LI. Not sticking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What if all the models are ALL wrong, and this comes in 50-100 miles west, and everyone gets 5-10" without a model showing those amounts. Imagine the hype Enjoy long island, this is your winter The only way I can see anything like that happening is if a banded feature sets up 30 to 50 miles away west from the oceanic CCB that developes tonight. You can almost see the semblance of one beginning to form SSW of Philly on the KDOX radar. If that feature were to develop, it would likely train over the same spot blessing those under it while everyone away from it, on either side gets nothing. Of course I'm not saying it will happen, just that it could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Not sticking though Cry me a river -_- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hate being screwed. This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hate being screwed. This sucks. Progressive Nina patterns are almost never favorable for us. It's a New England/Midwest pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Progressive Nina patterns are almost never favorable for us. It's a New England/Midwest pattern. I'm thinking about living around Orange/Rockland County. Those locations tend to receive more snow on a normal winter or even a below average performing winter for the NE/MD-ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snow88 your being screwed,lol you just had a blizzard. Come live in york and see what being screwed is all about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Look how close we were to a big snowstorm Snow88 your being screwed,lol you just had a blizzard. Come live in york and see what being screwed is all about I could imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 apparently the mods have abdicated here and its just a freeforall now..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm hoping those bands south of LI make their way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 apparently the mods have abdicated here and its just a freeforall now..wow Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm thinking about living around Orange/Rockland County. Those locations tend to receive more snow on a normal winter or even a below average performing winter for the NE/MD-ATL.If you could just move a little farther north in Westchester and gain a few hundred feet elevation, you would do better. I have 37" seasonal here at 350' in Dobbs Ferry. My mom taught in Mt Vernon like 12 years and they always had a lot less snow and snowpack...She had to burn sick days sometimes when roads were bad in the hills here. Parts of northern Westchester like Katonah and Pound Ridge have houses near 800' that must average 45" a season. Of course I had 70" in both 09-10 and 10-11 here in Dobbs Ferry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 apparently the mods have abdicated here and its just a freeforall now..wow I can't be here all day, every day. It's extremely disappointing that so many people don't think before they post. There are so many posts here that add nothing to the discussion. It's even more disappointing because myself and the other mods in here work very hard to keep things organized. Unfortunately it looks like we're going to be forced to start handing out 5 post per day restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can't be here all day, every day. It's extremely disappointing that so many people don't think before they post. There are so many posts here that add nothing to the discussion. It's even more disappointing because myself and the other mods in here work very hard to keep things organized. Unfortunately it looks like we're going to be forced to start handing out 5 post per day restrictions. People are just frustrated because a lot of threats like 12/29, 2/14 and tonight have trended poorly as we approached the event. However most of the area is above clump for snowfall. I've hit average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The most distressing part is that the weenism and OT stuff increases around possible storms when there is more traffic and when most of us who want to learn the science and increase our anlyatical model reading ability jupm in here. I believe you were a member of Easternweather Earthlight and if im correct then you know the formula that made that forum so successful: multiple very gifted mets who kept the discourse elevated and forced the weenies to the side. I hope things get better & thx 4 your efforts I can't be here all day, every day. It's extremely disappointing that so many people don't think before they post. There are so many posts here that add nothing to the discussion. It's even more disappointing because myself and the other mods in here work very hard to keep things organized.Unfortunately it looks like we're going to be forced to start handing out 5 post per day restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It would sure suck to be in Atlantic City right about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It would sure suck to be in Atlantic City right about now Yeah, no kidding look at that band just just just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Radar looks good for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It would sure suck to be in Atlantic City right about now This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 BTW the radar looks EXACTLY as it did on 2/24/89, we were discussing how close of an analog storm this is, basically shift that band in SE NJ 50 miles west or so and its a match, also had that NNW movement which made you think we were gonna get crushed up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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