earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 There are 5 or 6 blizzards on the SREF individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We are still ever so slightly positively tilted in the Mississippi Valley. It would only take a very small change to get this neutrally tilted in the Mississippi Valley, which usually spells significant snows for us. That's about where the Boxing Day event became neutrally tilted, so that definitely bodes well for us if we can swing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the SREF mean does close off an 850 low in a prime spot for classic snowstorms in our region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 There are 5 or 6 blizzards on the SREF individual members. I also counted 11 complete misses and 4 near misses. Most of the really amped solutions are ARW members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's about where the Boxing Day event became neutrally tilted, so that definitely bodes well for us if we can swing that. Don't compare this to Boxing Day, that was a completely different animal all together. That had energy coming out of Colorado and phased over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I also counted 11 complete misses and 4 near misses. Most of the really amped solutions are ARW members. You have to go back a few frames...most of them are at least light/moderate hits...there are probably 5-6 complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't compare this to Boxing Day, that was a completely different animal all together. That had energy coming out of Colorado and phased over the deep south. I agree about not comparing the two, but look at any model at 24 hours. The shortwave is over Northeast Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't compare this to Boxing Day, that was a completely different animal all together. That had energy coming out of Colorado and phased over the deep south. The phase took place over the southern MS Valley and that's where the storm really started getting its act together. The location of where a phase and/or sharpening of a trough is important, even if the exact mechanism for getting us there isn't the same. The block also helped a lot in slowing down that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You have to go back a few frames...most of them are at least light/moderate hits...there are probably 5-6 complete whiffs. Right, my bad. That's good I guess. Still hard for me to believe that the Euro would be completely missing this two days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree about not comparing the two, but look at any model at 24 hours. The shortwave is over Northeast Colorado. I see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM doesn't looks too impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM doesn't looks too impressive Give it time, the energy is still out in the plains through hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Right, my bad. That's good I guess. Still hard for me to believe that the Euro would be completely missing this two days out. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Give it time, the energy is still out in the plains through hr 33 The NAM still likes the lead vort developing a surface low hundreds of miles out to sea by 36 hours. So we'll see if it can recover once that second vort hits the trough base after 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 She is digging more this run, but I don't think it will be enough. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 She is digging more this run, but I don't think it will be enough. We shall see. oh... the NAM is a she? that explains a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 oh... the NAM is a she? that explains a lot. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Fanatic 97 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 oh... the NAM is a she? that explains a lot. . Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 15z NMM is amplified similarly to some of the SREF members http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_18z/f54.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Really trying to tighten up the trough at 54 hrs..we'll see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 48, she is digging all the way to the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Imminent explosion coming...I can feel it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 39, the energy is dropping into the base of the trough, light precip is breaking out in the central plains in response. The trough axis is actually well west of the MS river but it's still got a positive tilt right now. look at the energy crashing into the ridge out west, this is going to shunt everything east again IMO based on that image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 48, she is digging all the way to the gulf Not very organized, it'll miss, but i see some improvements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hr 39, the energy is dropping into the base of the trough, light precip is breaking out in the central plains in response. The trough axis is actually well west of the MS river but it's still got a positive tilt right now. Very barely positive and the trough is really digging. If Gulf moisture can somehow get involved it could really spark this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Please stop posting a million NCEP images for each hour of the model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw, the old ETA brings 1" of QPF into NYC and a blizzard to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Since the NAM is taking too long to get its act together, that gives the western energy more time to progress eastward and shunt the trough axis to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So close on the NAM yet so far away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Since the NAM is taking too long to get its act together, that gives the western energy more time to progress eastward and shunt the trough axis to the east. At risk of being snow hoggish...isnt the ultimate bottom line here if a raging blizzard will be dismissed because 18 z and if flurries dismissed using same logic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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