sn0w Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS showing 0.25" + over Lower Hudson Valley for tonight...looks like .10 - .25 in the City..... 0.25 starts around Southern Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 models have improved greatly enough to not have an error of 75 -100 miles 24 - 36 hours in advance ??? Don't think so......... Never mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For those losing hoping this weekend feast your eyes on Upton Long term forcast. seems some 1 is buying the Euro lock stock & barrel(storm advertised for 3 striaght days now): THE ECMWF HAS BEENCONSISTENTLY PREDICTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM LOW BEYOND THEEND OF THE FCST PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SO WINTERAPPEARS FAR FROM BEING OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS showing 0.25" + over Lower Hudson Valley for tonight...looks like .10 - .25 in the City..... 0.25 starts around Southern Westchester 18z GFS showing 0.25" + over Lower Hudson Valley for tonight...looks like .10 - .25 in the City..... 0.25 starts around Southern Westchester HA you beat me to it, maybe we can get a couple inches... obviously depends on the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For those losing hoping this weekend feast your eyes on Upton Long term forcast. seems some 1 is buying the Euro lock stock & barrel(storm advertised for 3 striaght days now): THE ECMWF HAS BEENCONSISTENTLY PREDICTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM LOW BEYOND THEEND OF THE FCST PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SO WINTERAPPEARS FAR FROM BEING OVER. For those losing hoping this weekend feast your eyes on Upton Long term forcast. seems some 1 is buying the Euro lock stock & barrel(storm advertised for 3 striaght days now): THE ECMWF HAS BEENCONSISTENTLY PREDICTING A MORE SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM LOW BEYOND THEEND OF THE FCST PERIOD THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED...SO WINTERAPPEARS FAR FROM BEING OVER. Yea that storm looks much better, tons of potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS looks good..for the mid atlantic. My cousins in SC would be shocked to see some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z GFS just some light snow and flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lee Goldberg just said 2" - 4" on the East End of LI combining both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I definitely would not be surprised if parts of GA, SC, NC and maybe even extreme northern Florida see more snow from this than we do regarding the 2nd event. That will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I definitely would not be surprised if parts of GA, SC, NC and maybe even extreme northern Florida see more snow from this than we do regarding the 2nd event. That will be interesting. Should be an interesting storm to track, not expecting much but mabye it's worth dealing with dry if these areas can see snow. It's not very common down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I hit 55 today IMBY Banter thread please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Down to 45 - 7 degrees in past two hours. Nothing except light showers showing up on radar, about 8 hours to the west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The surface will be warm when the snow starts but will crash sufficiently with precip. It's not a very good setup but mabye after Nemo, it doesn't seem like anything worth watching. Please don't use the TWC winter storm names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Please don't use the TWC winter storm names. Thanks for the clarification, didn't know if it was popular in this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 models have improved greatly enough to not have an error of 75 -100 miles 24 - 36 hours in advance ??? Don't think so.........100 miles further west and millions more folks are having a storm - and don't say I am forecasting that to happen but to just discount it is wrong Does the radar look anything like Jan 2000??? Seriously, we are going to take probably the most anomalous event (outside of Mar 2001 maybe) vis a vis short term model prediction in the last 2 decades and say, "well it happened then.." Do you know anything about statistics at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks for the clarification, didn't know if it was popular in this subforum.despised actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NEG NAO, on 15 Feb 2013 - 16:34, said: models have improved greatly enough to not have an error of 75 -100 miles 24 - 36 hours in advance ??? Don't think so.........100 miles further west and millions more folks are having a storm - and don't say I am forecasting that to happen but to just discount it is wrong Does the radar look anything like Jan 2000??? Seriously, we are going to take probably the most anomalous event (outside of Mar 2001 maybe) vis a vis short term model prediction in the last 2 decades and say, "well it happened then.." Do you know anything about statistics at all? you should read someones post throughly before commenting - I said "and don't say I am forecasting that to happen" so of course another one of the know it alls goes on the attack.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NEG NAO, on 15 Feb 2013 - 16:34, said: you should read someones post throughly before commenting - I said "and don't say I am forecasting that to happen" so of course another one of the know it alls goes on the attack.............. Why even mention it? It's the equivalent of suggesting that the near-Earth pass of the 2012DA14 Asteroid could product an effect similar to what happened in 1908 in Siberia over somewhere in SE Asia (even though it passed a good 17,000 mi over Indonesia as predicted), because, you know it DID happen once! Pulling out the most extreme of anomalous situations to suggest that "anything is possible" is getting old on this forum. How many times has a storm developed too far off shore to affect us, correctly predicted by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Tonight's vort is looking very unimpressive, just checked out the visible satellite, water vapor, upper level wind fields and temps, radar, and surface observations/pressures out to the west (Pennsylvania Ohio Maryland western NYS) and I don't see this really getting its act together right now. Hopefully this changes over the next few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Tonight's vort is looking very unimpressive, just checked out the visible satellite, water vapor, upper level wind fields and temps, radar, and surface observations/pressures out to the west (Pennsylvania Ohio Maryland western NYS) and I don't see this really getting its act together right now. Hopefully this changes over the next few hours check out this possibility mentioned for the second half of this event http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-video/weekend-snowstorm-snow-accumulations/655578741001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think the odds for a NYC snowstorm are small because: 1) Warm advection on the back of the digging trough 2) Many vorticity maxes not getting their acts together until it passes NYC 3) Upper level difluence does not form until the storm is pass the benchmark. 4) There is a strong kicker coming in from the Pacific Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 My cousin just texted me, it is raining, all rain, up in montague, new jersey, which is in extreme northwest sussex county next to high point state park. Real bad sign for our area if it's starting as all rain up there and they have a bit of elevation. That thin band is moving this way, west to east, and it doesn't look real impressive behind the band, there is no filling in or back building echoes showing on radar behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0z NAM and RAP are throwing some people a bone for a more impactful event. This front-running wave looks to not be producing. You will want to be inside the coastal precip for this one. The actual boundary looks quite far west at this point and that would argue for something more towards NYC later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Funny thats its raining in Montague, cause its snowing here on Wawayanda Mt. IN Vernon. Not one rain drop from the start 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0.5" line just touches the east end on the 0z NAM. About 0.25" for me. A good sign that it's throwing back more precip from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0z NAM looks like a little blizzard out on the Twin Forks from late Saturday morning thru Sunday morning. I would think ratios would be at least 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 0z NAM looks like a little blizzard out on the Twin Forks from late Saturday morning thru Sunday morning. I would think ratios would be at least 15:1. Through 18 hours looking at the the differences at 500mb I thought it was going to come way west, thought we might even pull a miracle off, but again it seemed to lose any improvements after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Funny thats its raining in Montague, cause its snowing here on Wawayanda Mt. IN Vernon. Not one rain drop from the start 10 minutes ago. snowing in highland lakes too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Through 18 hours looking at the the differences at 500mb I thought it was going to come way west, thought we might even pull a miracle off, but again it seemed to lose any improvements after that February 25, 1999 again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Funny thats its raining in Montague, cause its snowing here on Wawayanda Mt. IN Vernon. Not one rain drop from the start 10 minutes ago.they changed to snow, he texted me just now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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