jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 do we still have time for a trend further to the west? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 No. January 25, 2000 December 26, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z should be the final nail in the coffin. I hate the euro so much .the final nail in the coffin was 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 January 25, 2000 December 26, 2010 based on that... be alert in 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 How in the world would we get snow when it's 53 degrees outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the final nail in the coffin was 12z Yeah, if you live west of NYC. As for the "it's too warm" mentality, the snow arrives after the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 based on that... be alert in 2020 There are other events that bused within 24 hours, good and bad. Those are just the most obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 January 25, 2000 December 26, 2010 The pattern doesn't support this coming anywhere near us, and aloft those two are not analogous to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I don't think you could write this off for the east end just yet,but for most I think its probably done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The pattern doesn't support this coming anywhere near us, and aloft those two are not analogous to this storm.just looked those up and yea the upper level pattern is not even close to what we have now for either of them. Definitely not analogs for this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I don't think you could write this off for the east end just yet,but for most I think its probably done Hell no dude. Cape Cod and parts of Long Island are definitely getting 4-8" from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, if you live west of NYC. As for the "it's too warm" mentality, the snow arrives after the cold front. So our temperatures are going to crash over 21 degrees in time for the precip to arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So our temperatures are going to crash over 21 degrees in time for the precip to arrive? The surface will be warm when the snow starts but will crash sufficiently with precip. It's not a very good setup but mabye after Nemo, it doesn't seem like anything worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Accu-weather is forecasting 1-3" for NYC tomorrow night. They are the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hell no dude. Cape Cod and parts of Long Island are definitely getting 4-8" from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Upton gives me .03 of snow with a liquid of .18...........................euro was warm at 12z. Its over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can't be serious, euro cuts this in half but it amounts to about 0.50" of liquid give or take which is more than enough for 4-8. The Euro may not even be entirely correct. The GFS says this is a 6-12" snowstorm out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can't be serious, euro cuts this in half but it amounts to about 0.50" of liquid give or take which is more than enough for 4-8. The Euro may not even be entirely correct. The GFS says this is a 6-12" snowstorm out there. A fast-moving and intricate trough with many moving parts isn't "definitely" going to snow a lot anywhere yet. Some places have more hope than others but this could easily move out to sea or develop even later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Upton gives me .03 of snow with a liquid of .18...........................euro was warm at 12z. Its over Can't be over if it never began. In reality we had one amped set of models that quickly backed down. Not enough to raise alarms when the overall pattern is so poor, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A fast-moving and intricate trough with many moving parts isn't "definitely" going to snow a lot anywhere yet. Some places have more hope than others but this could easily move out to sea or develop even later. Vice versa. Look at how warm the temperatures are today, some reports of 60+ temperatures down in Virginia and North Carolina. This may seem like a negative factor but it's actually a huge thermal gradient and ridge that sharpens the orientation of the trough. This event is worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Upton gives me .03 of snow with a liquid of .18...........................euro was warm at 12z. Its over This is going to start as rain or rain/snow mix at best even for areas 35 miles northwest of NYC. The qpf is limited and that's why upton scaled back amounts so much. You won't have to worry about slick travel tomorrow morning given the fact that it was 50 plus today with sunshine all day long. That blacktop is really going to retain this warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is going to start as rain or rain/snow mix at best even for areas 35 miles northwest of NYC. The qpf is limited and that's why upton scaled back amounts so much. You won't have to worry about slick travel tomorrow morning given the fact that it was 50 plus today with sunshine all day long. That blacktop is really going to retain this warmth 50+ I have been 42 43 all day with a wind of LIS......was it really that warm down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Vice versa. Look at how warm the temperatures are today, some reports of 60+ temperatures down in Virginia and North Carolina. This may seem like a negative factor but it's actually a huge thermal gradient and ridge that sharpens the orientation of the trough. This event is worth watching. Not if the storm takes too long to form and the baroclinic zone is swept east. I guess anything can happen but the overwhelming odds are against significant impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 January 25, 2000 December 26, 2010 January 25th 2000 was expected the afternoon of the 24th to be a miss similar to this weekend system - then all of a sudden radar showed on the evening of the 24th that the precip was heading due north towards us inland up the coast - so the forecast had to be changed in the evening after the PM update had the precip missing to the east- so anything is possible with these types of coastal storms http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not expecting anything that big but wouldn't be surprised if NYC got a 1-3" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 50+ I have been 42 43 all day with a wind of LIS......was it really that warm down there?Yep close enough, we just hit 49 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 50+ I have been 42 43 all day with a wind of LIS......was it really that warm down there? I'm still at 50* here, saw 53* in the car earlier today and that was up in NW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 January 25th 2000 was expected the afternoon of the 24th to be a miss similar to this weekend system - then all of a sudden radar showed on the evening of the 24th that the precip was heading due north towards us inland up the coast - so the forecast had to be changed in the evening after the PM update had the precip missing to the east- so anything is possible with these types of coastal storms http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00.html If you look at the 500mb chart, it's nothing like the storm we're having now (same with 12/30/00), and models have improved greatly since then. It's pure wishcasting to think such a scenario will happen now. Absolutely nothing supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm still at 50* here, saw 53* in the car earlier today and that was up in NW CT. Damn man...I'm in Mahopac too...been stuck inside all day didn't realize it was that nice out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If you look at the 500mb chart, it's nothing like the storm we're having now (same with 12/30/00), and models have improved greatly since then. It's pure wishcasting to think such a scenario will happen now. Absolutely nothing supports it.models have improved greatly enough to not have an error of 75 -100 miles 24 - 36 hours in advance ??? Don't think so.........100 miles further west and millions more folks are having a storm - and don't say I am forecasting that to happen but to just discount it is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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