ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What euro show for tonight? Only about .10" and warmer then previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We have unanimous model consensus now guys, it's over, time to look at the next real threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm riding the Nogaps till the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We have unanimous model consensus now guys, it's over, time to look at the next real threat Our next threat isn't for over a week and that could easily bust as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just decided to go up to my other abode for the weekend(Lake Placid), so of course now that I'm leaving at 18z this will trend to a blizzard. To those who get snow, congrats, I'll be enjoying the man-made variety, which Whiteface is excellent at supplying. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Relax guys whatever happens happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro went east, precip shield shrunk in both size an amounts. some light precip tonight in nyc than 0 for sunday. eastern li gets some light stuff on sunday. cape cod best chance of seeing more than 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 dead. over. forget about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just like this one was a week ago This was always going to be a more complicated setup than next weeks event is modeled to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The NOAGPS actually throws some decent precip back this way. It's time to move on to the next threat. Maybe eastern New England can salvage something. If the Nogaps is the only model showing something, you know it's dead as a doorknob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Snows would be nice, but truthfully, I'm looking forward to spring, longer days etc. That being said, the models have been so horrific this year, Even the stellar Euro has had its burps, but overall, I cannot remember a time when model performance was as bad as it's been this winter. I really want to put this poor modeling era behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 THE 03Z SREF IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE MEMBERS VIA OUR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS SYSTEM (ALPS) THOUGH SHOWS THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIFFERENCES BASED ON THE WRF CORE. NMM AND NMMB MEMBERS ARE WELL EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE ARW MEMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE. THE ARW MEMBERS RESULT IN A 6 INCH PLUS SWATH OF SNOW OVER SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO SE CT. THIS IS WHERE THE WINTER STORM OUTLOOK IS FOCUSED ON - SEE HWO PRODUCT. AT THIS TIME...I`M LEANING TOWARDS THE ARW...BUT AWAITING DISCUSSION WITH HPC. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE ADDITIONAL NEW DATA. BASED ON LATEST DATA...LEANING TOWARDS STAYING WITH AN OUTLOOK IN HWO AND NOT GOING TO A WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BY 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THAT REGION FOLLOWING COORDINATION. Upton being very bullish for Suffolk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 THE 03Z SREF IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY NIGHT. ANALYSIS OF THE MEMBERS VIA OUR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS SYSTEM (ALPS) THOUGH SHOWS THAT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TRACK DIFFERENCES BASED ON THE WRF CORE. NMM AND NMMB MEMBERS ARE WELL EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK...WHILE ARW MEMBERS ARE VERY CLOSE. THE ARW MEMBERS RESULT IN A 6 INCH PLUS SWATH OF SNOW OVER SUFFOLK COUNTY INTO SE CT. THIS IS WHERE THE WINTER STORM OUTLOOK IS FOCUSED ON - SEE HWO PRODUCT. AT THIS TIME...I`M LEANING TOWARDS THE ARW...BUT AWAITING DISCUSSION WITH HPC. CONTINUE TO EVALUATE ADDITIONAL NEW DATA. BASED ON LATEST DATA...LEANING TOWARDS STAYING WITH AN OUTLOOK IN HWO AND NOT GOING TO A WATCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BY 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR THAT REGION FOLLOWING COORDINATION. Upton being very bullish for Suffolk Suffolk could get slammed, they got blasted from the 2/99 storm that basically missed everyone else and more or less even missed Boston too so not completely impossible on this sort of system for them to get hit hard although it would be primarily the twin forks, not necessarily the body of Suffolk county like Huntington/Islip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Suffolk could get slammed, they got blasted from the 2/99 storm that basically missed everyone else and more or less even missed Boston too so not completely impossible on this sort of system for them to get hit hard although it would be primarily the twin forks, not necessarily the body of Suffolk county like Huntington/Islip. Thank you, I was thinking about this storm but I couldn't remember exactly what it was or when it happened because I was so young. If I remember correctly that storm was modelled to be just off shore but wound up giving Eastern Suffolk 6-12, roughly exit 66 on 495 and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Suffolk could get slammed, they got blasted from the 2/99 storm that basically missed everyone else and more or less even missed Boston too so not completely impossible on this sort of system for them to get hit hard although it would be primarily the twin forks, not necessarily the body of Suffolk county like Huntington/Islip. That was the storm that caused me to miss a Billy Joel concert. He had to cancel because he couldn't get out of the Hamptons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Suffolk could get slammed, they got blasted from the 2/99 storm that basically missed everyone else and more or less even missed Boston too so not completely impossible on this sort of system for them to get hit hard although it would be primarily the twin forks, not necessarily the body of Suffolk county like Huntington/Islip. Also the December 1988 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 wow upton really lowered snow totals for the area... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 wow upton really lowered snow totals for the area... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Only through 7 AM Saturday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Only through 7 AM Saturday though yea but most of the pecip i believe is over for the overnight snowfall by then unless i am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 wow upton really lowered snow totals for the area... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php No surprise there based on the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 New SREF's are bone dry for the coastal except on Long Island and 0.10"+ for overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 18z NAM is 0.10-0.25" west of the city for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trough looks sharper on the NAM and a tad less progressive. It's holding the energy back in the base of the trough and giving the Carolinas a significant snow. It's still a swing and a miss, but closer to the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Damn if this thing would just get its act together a hair farther west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 do we still have time for a trend further to the west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z should be the final nail in the coffin. I hate the euro so much . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z should be the final nail in the coffin. I hate the euro so much . The euro had this way out to sea, GFS leading the way right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z should be the final nail in the coffin. I hate the euro so much . Yes because it's the Euro's fault this storm is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Damn if this thing would just get its act together a hair farther west... The trough axis doesn't go negatively tilted soon enough, because it is still progressive which has to do with the energy crashing into the state of Washington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I guess upton really downgraded this thing, yesterday they were calling for 1-2 inches, now they are calling for rain snow mix even up into Rockland county and no snow accumulation. Can't say I blame then based in the latest computer models and the fact that it's almost 50 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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