mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Now that the ggem went east, what did the ukie do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So much potential with this one...if things do get theit act together. But hard to go against euro. Flow is too progressive for the second storm and it forms too late. If anything it'll be a longitude storm and eastern New England is favored. Our shot is with the first wave tonight/tomorrow and hoping the boundary layer cools enough for it to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Doubtful. 12z ggem went east of its 0z run now. The 12z GGEM is better than the 0z in the south through the short term. At 36hrs it has a 1001mb SL just off Hatteras with steep and developing trof oriented through the Ohio Valley a snowstorm going on in NC and VA. It's going to miss, but it's an interesting situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 12z GGEM is better than the 0z. At 36hrs it has a 1001mb SL just off Hatteras with steep and developing trof oriented through the Ohio Valley a snowstorm going on in NC and VA. It's going to miss, but it's an interesting situation. It's relative... might be better for the coastal southeast... but certainly not for this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is just too close to give up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is just too close to give up on. I'm with you brother - riding this to the bitter end. Still time to see this trend back in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's relative... might be better for the coastal southeast... but certainly not for this subforum. The 0z hooked really sharp late to nail SNE and graze the upper mid-atlantic. I thought that was a little suspicious. This run tucks earlier but lacks the strong late hook, cutting back QPF for this area. I think recent runs probably have the right idea as 500mb isn't changing so much from run to run now. But it still wouldn't take a much sharper hook to deliver something decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is just too close to give up on. I've just about given up (I guess there's a 1% chance or something like that). Again, flow too progressive, low doesn't form in time. This storm's for New England. Next.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Flow is too progressive for the second storm and it forms too late. If anything it'll be a longitude storm and eastern New England is favored. Our shot is with the first wave tonight/tomorrow and hoping the boundary layer cools enough for it to stick. In my opinion the second storm is a potential as well. However with this progressive pattern and lack of blocking, it's making it difficult but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 0z hooked really sharp late to nail SNE and graze the upper mid-atlantic. I thought that was a little suspicious. This run tucks earlier but lacks the strong late hook, cutting back QPF for this area. I think recent runs probably have the right idea as 500mb isn't changing so much from run to run now. But it still wouldn't take a much sharper hook to deliver something decent. The GFS was one burp away from doing something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 2nd impulse in 100% over for everyone west of C MA/C CT/E LI for anything more than an inch or two... 1st impulse is our chance for something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NYC is about .3 from the initial wave and .15 from the coastal low on the GEFS mean QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NYC is about .3 from the initial wave and .15 from the coastal low on the GEFS mean QPF. The coastal looks stronger and closer to the coast than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I am at 50 degrees right now, that first wave is going to be alot of melting precip for alot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The coastal looks stronger and closer to the coast than the op. Yeah, it's pretty similar to the 0z mean, through probably without a few of the wet outliers, judging from the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nvm the ukie is east too if the euro is a miss as well it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The second event for Saturday looks to be all but dead. However a few inches tonight into tomorrow morning looks like a good possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nvm the ukie is east too if the euro is a miss as well it's over I'm going to wait till 0z. If we miss this, this will be painful since this has the chance to be a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm going to wait till 0z. If we miss this, this will be painful since this has the chance to be a monster storm. Not so painful when you consider the massive amount of potential next week and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not so painful when you consider the massive amount of potential next week and beyond The GGEM is a weenie's dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the 12z gfs only gave NYC .10 qpf of snow Up here it was .35 almost all snow. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not so painful when you consider the massive amount of potential next week and beyond . Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm going to wait till 0z. If we miss this, this will be painful since this has the chance to be a monster storm. I'm going to wait till 0z. If we miss this, this will be painful since this has the chance to be a monster storm. dont worry odds are ONLY CC will get big snows...This one wont even be close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Any word on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro gives some light snow from the city-east sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro looks sharper with the trough on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 EURO is going in the right direction, not sure what that means for QPF, but looks better. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What euro show for tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The NOAGPS actually throws some decent precip back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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