MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 RGEM further east...I think that just about does it for the coastal threat -- it does have some precip with the lead wave At 0z it was a good hit, now it's not. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 since this threat is toast i figured i'd stir the pot - does anyone see anything wrong with this image??? I mean there is a ridge in a pretty good place out west....50/50 check...trough in the middle of the country...WHY is that trough NOT digging? Is it because what is going on in the eastern pacific??? There also appears to be at least a ridge over Greenland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At 0z it was a good hit, now it's not. What a mess. At 0z it was a good hit, now it's not. What a mess. at a minimum, you are at least entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 since this threat is toast i figured i'd stir the pot - does anyone see anything wrong with this image??? I mean there is a ridge in a pretty good place out west....50/50 check...trough in the middle of the country...WHY is that trough NOT digging? Is it because what is going on in the eastern pacific??? There also appears to be at least a ridge over Greenland... see the energy crashing into the western ridge? That is shunting everything east and causing an unfair able trough axis downstream. That is why the storm is going to develop too far east out into the atlantic to give us anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 see the energy crashing into the western ridge? That is shunting everything east and causing an unfair able trough axis downstream. That is why the storm is going to develop too far east out into the atlantic to give us anything see the energy crashing into the western ridge? That is shunting everything east and causing an unfair able trough axis downstream. That is why the storm is going to develop too far east out into the atlantic to give us anything DUDE - were are talking about 2 diff systems. The map i posted is of the 84hr NAM. The storm that misses us is now the 50/50...this is for next weeks system...as DT would say that map kinda of defies the laws of physics But every model is showing the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At 0z it was a good hit, now it's not. What a mess. The insanely late developing coastal was always a 95-yard Hail Mary. The trough crashing into the West killed what chance we had with that. Progressive flow=FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GFS is throwing us a bone. Just when you thought we could completely write this off this happens to keep us holding on. It's like a sick joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 DUDE - were are talking about 2 diff systems. The map i posted is of the 84hr NAM. The storm that misses us is now the 50/50...this is for next weeks system...as DT would say that map kinda of defies the laws of physics But every model is showing the same thing. i glanced at it, thought we were still talking about this weekend, but yea a storm isn't cutting into a high in se Canada with a -nao block and a 50/50 low, ridiculous solution. If anything the primary will die out after it cuts and a secondary, miller b cyclone will somewhere off the coast, wherever the coastal front sets up, more than likely somewhere near the hatteras area, where u have the warm gulf stream waters/ sub tropical moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GFS was dangerously close to delivering the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The GFS was dangerously close to delivering the goods.holy s*** was that close. What is it showing for qpf? My link keeps freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Talk about a near miss. She "Just" gets kicked to the east 6-12 hours too soon. Eastern New England gets a good hit this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Your first mistake was looking at the 84hr NAM Your first mistake was looking at the 84hr NAM first, every model is showing the identical set up...second, I posted that to stimulate some actual weather conversation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 holy s*** was that close. What is it showing for qpf? My link keeps freezing Generally around 0.10". A little more east of the city. A little less west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 first, every model is showing the identical set up...second, I posted that to stimulate some actual weather conversation... Let me be clearer, the models are having trouble resolving the storm for this weekend. What happens with the coastal and how far west it gets is very important. Until that gets resolved, don't expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 since this threat is toast i figured i'd stir the pot - does anyone see anything wrong with this image??? I mean there is a ridge in a pretty good place out west....50/50 check...trough in the middle of the country...WHY is that trough NOT digging? Is it because what is going on in the eastern pacific??? There also appears to be at least a ridge over Greenland... 0z GGEM actually develops this into a modest wintry event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS; Wetter then the Euro and NAMNYC: .28"ISP: .30"BDR: .36"PHL: .36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z GFS; Wetter then the Euro and NAM NYC: .28" ISP: .30" BDR: .36" PHL: .36" Be careful, those numbers include the precip for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Be careful, those numbers include the precip for tonight. Obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 at 48hrs the 12z surface low is in the same spot or maybe slightly west of 0z 60 hrs and stronger,but the precip field is drier on the west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Boston gets hammered with the second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 at 48hrs the 12z surface low is in the same spot or maybe slightly west of 0z 60 hrs and stronger,but the precip field is drier on the west side The models are still insisting on spliting the energy and developing numerous low centers. One of which kicks way out to the east and one of which the GFS now shows forming just off the NC coast. If the energy was more consolidated into one big storm it would greatly help things. That's why I still think there is an outside chance that this makes a last minute jump west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So much potential with this one...if things do get theit act together. But hard to go against euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just a reminder that this is not a chat room. "Gfs started" and "ugh" posts will be deleted and repeat offenders will have 5 post per day restrictions. It's ridiculous that Doug and I have to spend our entire day deleting posts because they literally add no substance to the discussion. Thanks in advance ! first going to comment on the weekend storm - I think we should still have to watch this closely and not write it off yet - since it is so close and could easily develop closer to the coast and slow down - secondly seems to me that some folks did not read this post from Earthlight last night - the banter this morning is like almost a quarter to half of the posts .................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The models are still insisting on spliting the energy and developing numerous low centers. One of which kicks way out to the east and one of which the GFS now shows forming just off the NC coast. If the energy was more consolidated into one big storm it would greatly help things. That's why I still think there is an outside chance that this makes a last minute jump west. I have noticed in the past that as the models get closer to an event they tend to consolidate the energy into a single low. Not to say it will happen this time . Still looks like a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Be careful, those numbers include the precip for tonight. and some of that is just rain/flizzard for those south of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here's hoping the Euro throws us a bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Here's hoping the Euro throws us a bone. Doubtful. 12z ggem went east of its 0z run now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Think the EURO is going to throw us a bone, but not on the coastal, think it's going to up the amounts on the first wave to GFS level maybe more. I think the thing to be watching is the first wave, it's been trending stronger on every model, and if that continues we could see a nice(advisory) event out of it. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Think the EURO is going to throw us a bone, but not on the coastal, think it's going to up the amounts on the first wave to GFS level maybe more. I think the thing to be watching is the first wave, it's been trending stronger on every model, and if that continues we could see a nice(advisory) event out of it. -skisheep the 12z gfs only gave NYC .10 qpf of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 the 12z gfs only gave NYC .10 qpf of snow It gave .28" of precip for NYC with the lead wave. Now how stingy will the BL be is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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