IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some light snow for the eastern VA and NC weenies on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z (1am) to about 12z (7am) so ya basically overnight into sat am Euro has precip from 1am tonight to about 10pm tomorrow night. Light intensity though, as evidenced by the total precip of around .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can't post that ag3 storm at sea is watching. He'll have you know that the BL is tropical out there. Heavy heavy snow at 1000ft but that's drizzle at the surfacestorm at sea is actually a very knowledgable met, his forecasts are usually real accurate, he knows his stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam850mbTSLPp06024.gif this is a wet snow moderate to heavy at times for a few hours - grass and other cold sufaces accumulation - surface still above 32 = 850's below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like the main show is closer to the coast on this run when it's forming, this run has potential to be something nice. -skisheep Its further east than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is accumulating snow for just north of NYC the whole time, as surface temps are 29-32.5. For NYC it's snowing, but the surface hovers at 33-35 until the last couple hours, where it drops to 31. Lol I know i was being facetious bc storm at sea assumes none of us can read a map. It was very clearly above (albeit slightly) freezing at the surface on the nam and below on the euro ( as you've confirmed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol I know i was being facetious bc storm at sea assumes none of us can read a map. It was very clearly above (albeit slightly) freezing at the surface on the nam and below on the euro ( as you've confirmed) Euro is below 32 for JUST north and west of NYC. NYC and the coast has surface issues, but nothing crazy. Starts at 35-36 and drops to 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lets hope this snow is the real deal on the nam, might be the only show in town for the entire region...........i will take a couple inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Before anyone gets excited about the 12z first wave precip, it's warm as hell. It's now going to accumulate with BL temps like that. It's not "warm as hell" away from the coast. For example: BDR is 32.1 degrees at 7am and 32.8 at 1pm and 29 degrees at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Its further east than 6z Indeed it is, it looked better in it's early stage and then scooted east. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can see on the nam the vort ever so slightly escapes an earlier phase. The difference between a scraper and nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lets hope this snow is the real deal on the nam, might be the only show in town for the entire region...........i will take a couple inches! You are in good shape Joe. Both the euro and nam give you a couple inches with surface temps 32 or below. Euro is colder then the NAM also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's not "warm as hell" away from the coast. For example: BDR is 32.1 degrees at 7am and 32.8 at 1pm and 29 degrees at 7pm. Yeah I have no idea what he is talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You are in good shape Joe. Both the euro and nam give you a couple inches with surface temps 32 or below. Euro is colder then the NAM also. Ironically, this snow that we all see might be the only game in town..........and we look to be in a good spot as of now, of course that can change but like I said yesterday, there are many ways to get some snow this weekend. I think everyone should be happy what the Nam just showed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 1st wave is .25 - NYC east but the BL looks like crud ...Second wave looks right at 12z which is east of its 6z . That EC trough axis looks right with a western ridge line running from eastern Wyoming down thru central Texas that maybe too far EAST to keep a SLP tucked in . So a WHIFF on the 2nd wave kinda looks right too me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah I have no idea what he is talking about? And it's not "warm as hell" for NYC either. At 1am, surface is 36 degrees in NYC with .05" of precip fallen. At 7am, surface is 32.2 degrees in NYC with .17" of precip fallen. SAT 1A 16-FEB 2.4 -5.0 1015 98 88 0.05 540 528 SAT 7A 16-FEB 0.2 -6.2 1014 96 83 0.17 536 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is below 32 for JUST north and west of NYC. NYC and the coast has surface issues, but nothing crazy. Starts at 35-36 and drops to 32. The 4km shows a brief start as rain but quickly goes over to light snow as evap cooling takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 And it's not "warm as hell" for NYC either. At 1am, surface is 36 degrees in NYC with .05" of precip fallen. At 7am, surface is 32.2 degrees in NYC with .17" of precip fallen. SAT 1A 16-FEB 2.4 -5.0 1015 98 88 0.05 540 528 SAT 7A 16-FEB 0.2 -6.2 1014 96 83 0.17 536 526 Well I think his post was dramatic, but the general idea that the snow won't accumulate on most surfaces is probably correct. Additionally the 4km hi res NAM shows precipitation starts as rain near the coast. The light nature of the precipitation rates wont help either -- we saw this the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Welcome Welcome to the boards, you're in for a fun ride! -skisheep Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi Everyone, I am new here. Been watching winter storms for a long time. Never posted on a forum before. I have been entertained by reading this forum for about a year. Hoping the 12z models come west Welcome aboard bud ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well I think his post was dramatic, but the general idea that the snow won't accumulate on most surfaces is probably correct. Additionally the 4km hi res NAM shows precipitation starts as rain near the coast. The light nature of the precipitation rates wont help either -- we saw this the other day. Soundings support rain for an hour or 2. Followed by a few hours of wet snow. It wont accumulate in the middle of Manhattan, but it will in parts of the boroughs and especially north and west. 9z and 12z soundings easily support snow and accumulating also; especially on grass and non-paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Soundings support rain for an hour or 2. Followed by a few hours of wet snow. It wont accumulate in the middle of Manhattan, but it will in parts of the boroughs and especially north and west. 9z and 12z soundings easily support snow and accumulating also; especialyl on grass and non-paved surfaces. Instead of debating between the Euro, NAM and GFS...after the Canadian upgrades I think at this point I'll just wait for your text message regarding the 12z RGEM and call it a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREFs don't look good. Very little precip breaking out from the first wave (MAYBE a coating), and 2nd wave is too far east. Eastern Long Island maybe an inch or so and eastern newcengland maybe a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We need this event to refresh our snowpack in Dobbs Ferry. Only a bit more than 6" remaining on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Instead of debating between the Euro, NAM and GFS...after the Canadian upgrades I think at this point I'll just wait for your text message regarding the 12z RGEM and call it a day I am kind of disappointed in the GGEM run yesterday that showed the heavier qpf after they spent all that money on the upgrade. The RGEM had the right idea 18z yesterday coming into better agreement with the available guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREFs don't look good. Very little precip breaking out from the first wave (MAYBE a coating), and 2nd wave is too far east. Eastern Long Island maybe an inch or so and eastern newcengland maybe a few They ran off of 6z data, and a signficant number of their members are parts of the 6z NAM, so often when the NAM is bad, it's bad as well. Not expecting much from it, and it's record this year has not been stellar to say the least. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We need this event to refresh our snowpack in Dobbs Ferry. Only a bit more than 6" remaining on the ground.. Down to a couple inches here in NE NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREFs don't look good. Very little precip breaking out from the first wave (MAYBE a coating), and 2nd wave is too far east. Eastern Long Island maybe an inch or so and eastern newcengland maybe a few They may be having difficulty keying in on which vort to blow up. Key here being that while a middle solution is possible, I think a solution like the nam or euro is more likely. Precip overnight into tomorrow could drop a coating to an inch or 2 esp in the burbs...with the big one deepening way too far east for anyone to get in the game. I'd like to see what the rest of the 12z model suite has to say though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm liking somewhat that models are bringing the lead wave back, that may be good for a couple or few inches on colder surfaces, but if the boundary layer is shot it could just be some slop. The second wave looks like it has just about zero chance for us. May be a storm for eastern ME and Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 RGEM further east...I think that just about does it for the coastal threat -- it does have some precip with the lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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