nzucker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like another 1-3" storm for NYC metro, a scraper in a cold airmass. Sunday looks frigid with highs in the mid 20s as 850s drop to almost -20C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6Z GFS is east. well, that was fun to watch, if the GGEM loses it its over. This isn't over until the flakes fly one way or another, the variability over the past 24 hours shows that we are no where near locked onto a solution. Gut feeling is that this misses east and we get something like 2-4", but it's so close to being something much more, and there is a decent chance that it's not done trending yet. They sent out flights last night, which I think should be in 12z models, which should help guide us closer to the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro has .23" of precip for NYC .25"+ for LI All from the lead vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like another 1-3" storm for NYC metro, a scraper in a cold airmass. Sunday looks frigid with highs in the mid 20s as 850s drop to almost -20C. Nate,it's not over yet. Nam and the GFS were really close. GFS mean still gives us near .50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yea.. everyone is asking me what its going to do and my reply is.. it could either be nothing or it could be something big. Just don't know until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z RGEM at 48 hours. This is really close. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/06_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg What? man, if that trough goes negative just a little bit earlier, we'd be in business. giving it until the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro has .23" of precip for NYC .25"+ for LI All from the lead vort. BDR? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 BDR? -skisheep .24" with surface temps sub-freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 .24" with surface temps sub-freezing. Cool, 1-4" and the trend might not be over yet. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The infamous northwest trend needs to come into play here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like we could at least get a couple inches due to the arctic front, but this could be a nail biter, I'd rather have it well east then have it missing by a mere 30 or 40 miles, which is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 New SREF's are terrible for anyone NW of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll be happy with 2-4 at this point, this isn't our storm, the trough axis is a bit too Far East. The NAO is heading negative though which favors coastal development so maybe we will get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 New SREF's are terrible for anyone NW of I-95 yea that's pretty ugly. The 12z runs should settle this, so close but yet so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rsteff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi Everyone, I am new here. Been watching winter storms for a long time. Never posted on a forum before. I have been entertained by reading this forum for about a year. Hoping the 12z models come west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi Everyone, I am new here. Been watching winter storms for a long time. Never posted on a forum before. I have been entertained by reading this forum for about a year. Hoping the 12z models come west Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hi Everyone, I am new here. Been watching winter storms for a long time. Never posted on a forum before. I have been entertained by reading this forum for about a year. Hoping the 12z models come west Welcome to the boards, you're in for a fun ride! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A little precip at hour 18 from the lead wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Before anyone gets excited about the 12z first wave precip, it's warm as hell. It's now going to accumulate with BL temps like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 More than a little precip. Similar to euro with lead wave. As of 21 light to mod snow overspreading area. Mod precip down by Philly. Likely gonna drop around 0.25 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Before anyone gets excited about the 12z first wave precip, it's warm as hell. It's now going to accumulate with BL temps like that. I would say you're exaggerating a tad. 32 degree line is over southern westchester and moving south at 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This shows the importance of getting the development in closer to the SE Coast for a great result here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro has .23" of precip for NYC .25"+ for LI All from the lead vort. Just want to bump to show the cave the NAM just did. 12z NAM: NYC: .23" ISP: .26" 0z Euro: NYC: .23" ISP: .26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like the main show is closer to the coast on this run when it's forming, this run has potential to be something nice. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just want to bump to show the cave the NAM just did. 12z NAM: NYC: .23" ISP: .26" 0z Euro: NYC: .23" ISP: .26" That would be for tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just want to bump to show the cave the NAM just did. 12z NAM: NYC: .23" ISP: .26" 0z Euro: NYC: .23" ISP: .26" You can't post that ag3 storm at sea is watching. He'll have you know that the BL is tropical out there. Heavy heavy snow at 1000ft but that's drizzle at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The NAM looks like it's really having a lot of trouble trying to figure out which vort becomes the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That would be for tonight ? 1am to 1pm tonight into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That would be for tonight ? 6z (1am) to about 12z (7am) so ya basically overnight into sat am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You can't post that ag3 storm at sea is watching. He'll have you know that the BL is tropical out there. Heavy heavy snow at 1000ft but that's drizzle at the surface Euro is accumulating snow for just north of NYC the whole time, as surface temps are 29-32.5. For NYC it's snowing, but the surface hovers at 33-35 until the last couple hours, where it drops to 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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