MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 . When I busted your balls earlier today and said the nogaps was dry like the euro and that it was a red flag you totally dismissed it because it didn't support your snowstorm hope, now you say the nogaps is a red flag because its amped and supports the idea of a snowstorm. Stop it man , really Welcome to Americanwx lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEFS coming in well west of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What is timing for this possible storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEFS coming in well west of 18z That's a very impressive and very strong signal on the ensembles, must be a few monster hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEFS coming in well west of 18z They're actually west (southwest) of 12z as well. 12z: 0z: h5 maps look better as well, compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That's a very impressive and very strong signal on the ensembles, must be a few monster hits. It really is. NYC gets 4+ on the mean while LI and SNE gets a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 They're actually west (southwest) of 12z as well. 12z: 0z: h5 maps look better as well, compared to 12z Nice, some of the members must go to town on us. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 . When I busted your balls earlier today and said the nogaps was dry like the euro and that it was a red flag you totally dismissed it because it didn't support your snowstorm hope, now you say the nogaps is a red flag because its amped and supports the idea of a snowstorm. Stop it man , really Why should someone take you seriously when you're admitting to posting something just to bust balls? You're already trolling a board you just joined? And...I, too, would welcome you to amwx if I really thought you were new to the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some good dicussion about the NavGem but does it suffer from the same progressive bias as the Nogaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The nogaps Navgem looks roughly similar to the GGEM: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013021500∏=500τ=060&set=Allhttps: Forget the surface depiction... which is light to moderate snow for this area and a long duration major snowstorm for SNE. The surface parameters are the least reliable on the Nogaps. But the model can still be useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 54 hours is 6z Sunday morning...that definitely screams 2nd wave to me. But yeah, the 2/23/89 analog does look similar. The nogaps doesn't really separate the two waves at the surface. This is similar to what many of the SREF members had been doing this morning. I don't buy it of course.. I think two distinct areas of precipitation are more likely. Regardless, the Nogaps' mid and upper level panels support a moderate hit from the main energy... similar to the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some good dicussion about the NavGem but does it suffer from the same progressive bias as the Nogaps? The upgraded Nogaps has gotten better and better over the years, but it is not intended for local surface weather forecasting. I have always thought the "progressive" label was an oversimplification and the non-surface parameters seem to offer utility. It probably still does suffer most of the same biases as the Nogaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00Z ECMWF a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol must suck bc i was gonna post the same thing before you did....if it was a decent hit this thread would not be dead right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's not necessarily a miss....looks better than the 12z run but doesn't bring the low up the coast like the GFS. I have a hard time discounting the GFS and GGEM this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00Z ECMWF a miss.its a high fly deep to right, it is high, it is far, its foul wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It's not necessarily a miss....looks better than the 12z run but doesn't bring the low up the coast like the GFS. I have a hard time discounting the GFS and GGEM this close in. Its way faster it appears, basically has the low at 48 hours where the GFS does at 54...I would think some precip has to make it over the area from what I'm seeing but I don't have the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Will be very interested to see the ensemble mean for euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 its a high fly deep to right, it is high, it is far, its foul wide right So what your saying is that the Euro is now John Sterling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 But overall great trends tonight! Great model suite and we look to have an interesting and potentially big storm this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Its way faster it appears, basically has the low at 48 hours where the GFS does at 54...I would think some precip has to make it over the area from what I'm seeing but I don't have the mapsyes and due to the speed/ lack of blocking/ progressiveness, it misses East. Not quite sure I buy this lock stock and barrel quite yet .EDIT: Though without that 50/50 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00Z ECMWF HR 48: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol must suck bc i was gonna post the same thing before you did....if it was a decent hit this thread would not be dead right now So do we call the last GFS a burp run as well? If the Euro had jumped onboard then the GFS would be more believable but doesn't seem to be the case. Is it time to put this treat to bed or should we believe the GFS is into something? PT, any thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So what your saying is that the Euro is now John Sterling?No, no, no, the Euro is the Yankees game and I'm Sterling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So do we call the last GFS a burp run as well? If the Euro had jumped onboard then the GFS would be more believable but doesn't seem to be the case. Is it time to put this treat to bed or should we believe the GFS is into something? PT, any thoughts on this? I think it is onto something. The Cmc also showed a similar outcome and the ggem(upgraded) did so too, to a bigger extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Why put it to bed now when it's the closest it has ever been to a major event. Aside from earlier runs last weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So do we call the last GFS a burp run as well? If the Euro had jumped onboard then the GFS would be more believable but doesn't seem to be the case. Is it time to put this treat to bed or should we believe the GFS is into something? PT, any thoughts on this? I'll answer that with a question. How often is the Euro dead wrong at 48hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm not going to say the euro is a bad model, which people will say but it is not. Euro's se bias might also come into play a bit The Euro doesn't have a SE bias. The main bias the Euro has is it holds energy back in the sw too long. Which doesnt come into play here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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