earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This sounds like hyperbole, but I think it's totally correct. A quick look at the upper level panels on the UK, GGEM, and even the GFS shows this is a close call for a major snowstorm from NJ to Maine. Chances still have to be considered low for such an event, but it's really not that far off as currently modeled. The 12z Euro is a bit of a downer, because it's not very similar to the rest of the guidance and the furthest from big snows. Although at 48hours it's not very different than the UK, but diverges noticeably thereafter. The Euro ensembles will offer a big clue I think. If we can hold this trend through 18z I will start to get excited. Agree. It's not that we're short on time...I think the Euro trending more amplified was a pretty huge step at 12z, despite the fact that it didn't quite get to the level of the GFS/GGEM/UK. This is not an NCEP QPF issue like the last system, either...so I don't think it's smart to compare the two. We're one more amplified trend away from seeing the development of a really awesome QPF increase essentially from Trenton on north and east...which, given the upper level jet dynamics, could feature some significant snowfall amounts. The 18z runs will be pretty exciting today -- I would like to see some more amplified SREF members, the NAM trend more amplified, and the GFS hold. But I'm sure we'll start finding out a lot more about whether or not this threat has teeth by 00z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Agree. It's not that we're short on time...I think the Euro trending more amplified was a pretty huge step at 12z, despite the fact that it didn't quite get to the level of the GFS/GGEM/UK. This is not an NCEP QPF issue like the last system, either...so I don't think it's smart to compare the two. We're one more amplified trend away from seeing the development of a really awesome QPF increase essentially from Trenton on north and east...which, given the upper level jet dynamics, could feature some significant snowfall amounts. The 18z runs will be pretty exciting today -- I would like to see some more amplified SREF members, the NAM trend more amplified, and the GFS hold. But I'm sure we'll start finding out a lot more about whether or not this threat has teeth by 00z tonight. Agreed, 0z tonight will be real telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Agree. It's not that we're short on time...I think the Euro trending more amplified was a pretty huge step at 12z, despite the fact that it didn't quite get to the level of the GFS/GGEM/UK. This is not an NCEP QPF issue like the last system, either...so I don't think it's smart to compare the two. We're one more amplified trend away from seeing the development of a really awesome QPF increase essentially from Trenton on north and east...which, given the upper level jet dynamics, could feature some significant snowfall amounts. The 18z runs will be pretty exciting today -- I would like to see some more amplified SREF members, the NAM trend more amplified, and the GFS hold. But I'm sure we'll start finding out a lot more about whether or not this threat has teeth by 00z tonight. very nice analysis - definitely makes me more confident than I was...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chademer07 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Murph, qpf maps won't tell as much as H5 you can't just look at them.... And Anthony, you can't just discount the euro. It's been the best model, but the fact that it's on it's own for the most part may signal it's not correct but based on its track record........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 very nice analysis - definitely makes me more confident than I was...thanks. It's still possible (probably more likely than not) that this ends up being a whiff at least generally speaking. But the orientation of the trough pretty much suggests that we'll at least see a period of light to moderate snow as the vortmax swings by. If you're looking for the bigger solution...we still need one or two ticks more amplified/farther west. But it's mouth watering to see how close it is at this point. I said a few days ago that it looked fantastic...but it was almost as if somebody picked up an ideal setup, and moved it 100 miles too far east, and put it down. So I hope that doesn't come back to bite us in the end now that we're looking at more amplified solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yes, Euro, HPC discounted GFS and NAM 48H prior to Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree. I want to wait and see what the 0Z Euro does before pulling the trigger, but it wouldn't tack much of a westward shift for this to be a significant event. The storm could possibly bomb closer to the coast with the very warm SST's and a 160 kt jet exit region over the coastal waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's a little illustration to help visualize what I mean. You can see the trough axis with the dotted yellow line. Given the height field and orientation of the upper levels with the closed contours over the Great Lakes...you would want the neutral/neg tilted trough to be where the solid yellow line is..near the MS river. As it is, it works on the GFS because a surface low develops close enough to the coast to work underneath the good jet dynamics and produce moderate precipitation. But it could come even farther west if the shortwave would hit the trough base where the solid yellow line is, and then eject northeast. That's when we'd start talking about bomb-type solutions. We haven't seen any model show this yet, so I don't think the probability of that happening is very high at all. Just speculation at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemurph44 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Murph, qpf maps won't tell as much as H5 you can't just look at them.... And Anthony, you can't just discount the euro. It's been the best model, but the fact that it's on it's own for the most part may signal it's not correct but based on its track record........agreed about qpf, however, as is typical, certain people are only discounting the euro because it is not showing a snowstorm, and for no other reason. If the euro was the only one showing it, they would buy it hook line and sinker and it would be the greatest thing since sliced bread. We saw another example of this back when the euro was the only model showing last weekend's storm, the same people that are throwing out the euro thought it was great and bought it lock stock and barrel and the gfs sucked, now of course the gfs is great and you can throw the euro out. You can see the pattern clear as day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree. I want to wait and see what the 0Z Euro does before pulling the trigger, but it wouldn't tack much of a westward shift for this to be a significant event. The storm could possibly bomb closer to the coast with the very warm SST's and a 160 kt jet exit region over the coastal waters. GFS_3_2013021412_F60_WSPD_300_MB.png anoma.2.14.2013.gif I agree it certainly has potential, but also has so much potential to be nothing if things are poorly timed/spaced. Hard to say which way to lean, but if the 12z trend towards more amplified continues later, we could be looking at a major storm that finally nails people who didn't get much from the storm a week ago. Hope, hope, hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Man has this been awesome with all the different storms we're able to track this season, and every storm had a different set-up. Trend is our friend #1 rule, this is coming west tonight I think, but that doesn't mean it won't shift back east tomorrow. I'll keep reading and learning from the great insight provided by our great posters. good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF's are out and fairly juiced up. Actually quite a bit more juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 The new 15z SREFs are way more amplified both aloft and with the surface low pressure...a huge jump from 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree it certainly has potential, but also has so much potential to be nothing if things are poorly timed/spaced. Hard to say which way to lean, but if the 12z trend towards more amplified continues later, we could be looking at a major storm that finally nails people who didn't get much from the storm a week ago. Hope, hope, hope... That's why I am waiting for the 0Z Euro before making a first guess. If it is going to be more impressive, then the next run of the Euro will have a good handle on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nice to see the SREF more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just for reference on the SREF mean...here's a quick comparison image. We jumped from a 998mb low in Nova Scotia...to a 998mb low south of the 40/70 Benchmark with pretty significant precipitation now being thrown back into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Often times, surface improvements seem to lag improvements at H5. I would not be surprised at all, especially considering the upgraded GGEM is showing a good solution, that the Euro comes around at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's why I am waiting for the 0Z Euro before making a first guess. If it is going to be more impressive, then the next run of the Euro will have a good handle on it. It'll be interesting to see if the ensembles lean in any direction different than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Another huge improvement I've noted is the fact that since we are now keying in on a slightly earlier wave from what was originally forecast several days ago, that means the energy out west has not crashed nearly as far to the east, making the pattern much less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Often times, surface improvements seem to lag improvements at H5. I would not be surprised at all, especially considering the upgraded GGEM is showing a good solution, that the Euro comes around at 0z. This could be a good early test for the upgraded Canadian. Yesterday, it was in lockstep with the Euro. Today, it diverged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Someone mentioned the JMA earlier... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_72HR.gif It definitely looks more like the GFS/GGEM/UK than the Euro. QPF isn't extremely heavy, but that's not critical at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Someone mentioned the JMA earlier... http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_72HR.gif It definitely looks more like the GFS/GGEM/UK than the Euro. QPF isn't extremely heavy, but that's not critical at this point. Totally. People have a huge QPF fetish on this forum, but given that we are still a couple of days away, seeing the upper level dynamics and great instability to support lift and precipitation is more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The new 15z SREFs are way more amplified both aloft and with the surface low pressure...a huge jump from 09z. Awesome. And not really too surprising. We probably lost a few of the complete misses that previous cycles had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We are still ever so slightly positively tilted in the Mississippi Valley. It would only take a very small change to get this neutrally tilted in the Mississippi Valley, which usually spells significant snows for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's still possible (probably more likely than not) that this ends up being a whiff at least generally speaking. But the orientation of the trough pretty much suggests that we'll at least see a period of light to moderate snow as the vortmax swings by. If you're looking for the bigger solution...we still need one or two ticks more amplified/farther west. But it's mouth watering to see how close it is at this point. I said a few days ago that it looked fantastic...but it was almost as if somebody picked up an ideal setup, and moved it 100 miles too far east, and put it down. So I hope that doesn't come back to bite us in the end now that we're looking at more amplified solutions. It's still possible (probably more likely than not) that this ends up being a whiff at least generally speaking. But the orientation of the trough pretty much suggests that we'll at least see a period of light to moderate snow as the vortmax swings by. If you're looking for the bigger solution...we still need one or two ticks more amplified/farther west. But it's mouth watering to see how close it is at this point. I said a few days ago that it looked fantastic...but it was almost as if somebody picked up an ideal setup, and moved it 100 miles too far east, and put it down. So I hope that doesn't come back to bite us in the end now that we're looking at more amplified solutions. yeah, i agree about the placement of the trough...hopefully it sets up a bit further west/amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 The SLP on the Euro ensembles is definitely closer to the coast than the 00z ensembles...and h5 more amplified and better oriented. Although similar to the OP..they are definitely a little quicker to develop the surface low and maybe a hair closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Totally. People have a huge QPF fetish on this forum, but given that we are still a couple of days away, seeing the upper level dynamics and great instability to support lift and precipitation is more important. I keep thinking we are further away than we are. As modeled, precip moves in overnight tomorrow. If everything breaks right, we could be looking at a 24hour event. If not, just a few hours of light rain/flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Significant spread to the west on the SREFs with the MSLP, as well. I'm looking forward to seeing the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I keep thinking we are further away than we are. As modeled, precip moves in overnight tomorrow. If everything breaks right, we could be looking at a 24hour event. If not, just a few hours of light rain/flurries. Eh, precipitation doesn't really start until 48 hours on most of the 15z SREF members. We've still got a small window to work with here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 One of the reasons why this trough is coming in less progressive is that the energy that had been crashing into Western Canada and knocking down the ridge is now forecasted to completely shear out leaving the stronger ridge in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.