dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 neither do I, they are fun to look sometimes. Funny thing is I was noticing for a while that a few members of the SREF have been throwing out wild solutions that throw off the mean and make it useless at times. Then a met in the PA forum confirmed that NCEP is aware of the problem and is looking into a solution but that for now use the SREF with caution because it is known to have extreme jumps in short lead times before events. If you look at the maps (which come from grib files) you are fine. I think the only files in questions are some post-process bufr/sounding output from one group/subset of the SREF members (I forget which model). There is an error in the hourly precip calculation in the product generator code .... so I think this impacts only those things that use those files (i.e. SREF plumes for example), but not the grib-based graphics (such as the mean plotted on the MAG, and many others). In fact, I think the problem was first recognized by comparing the SREF plumes (and other output from the bufr files) with the 2D maps that came from the grib files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 their map is pretty bullish compared to my zone StormTotalSnowRange.png Friday Night Rain likely. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Love being a sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly a watch could potentially make sense. A watch can't bust so why not hoist one if it is meteorologically possible. A watch is supposed to verify 50% of time, that's why. The chances of getting 5 inches is not even 10% imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 A watch is supposed to verify 50% of time, that's why. The chances of getting 5 inches is not even 10% imo. Are you talking about for the entire winter season? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 LOL on Snow map! Who lives here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 All over what? He had it depicted on his in house model future cast, and said that it looked more promising for more snow than the current storm that was unfolding yesterday. Plus he mentioned the temps would be falling off rather quickly, followed by colder weather Saturday and **** like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At least the HPC snow probability maps look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Fool's gold. You're welcome Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Fool's gold. You're welcome Bob. Gfs is gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Individual members: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Everything from a complete miss to legit PD3. ARW3 shows my capture scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF plumes are out. Mean DCA snowfall for: NMM members: 2.5" NMB members: 0.6" ARW members: 15.5", including two 30"+ storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF plumes are out. Mean DCA snowfall for: NMM members: 2.5" NMB members: 0.6" ARW members: 15.5", including two 30"+ storms with the ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD This is why the public laughs at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is whay the public laughs at us. Not much of the public reads that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 with the ARW 70" in Scranton, PA on one of the members with a >30:1 ratio. A cautionary tale about using the SREF mean as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs is back to the first wave idea. Lol. Does any model agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD Give them points for honesty at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs is back to the first wave idea. Lol. Does any model agree? close to something on the back end too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs is back to the first wave idea. Lol. Does any model agree? Rain to snow transition is between 0z and 3z. Still a good amount of precip after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rain to snow transition is between 0z and 3z. Still a good amount of precip after that. Were getting 18z'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This front has some punch, rain and showers preceeds it and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, temp drops 10-15 degrees in 2 hours and rain changes to snow in early hours on Saturday. Sunday looks really cold, even DCA lloks to not get above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 close to something on the back end too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_700_rh_ht.gif It thinks about it bit just not the right trough alignment. We're outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like it's drying up to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like the models are diverging again after looking at least sort of similar at 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? Nah, nobody is really buying in yet. We cant get run to run on the same model or agreement within a suite. Its a modeled mess. Only thing I'm biting on is there is prob gonna be some precip. The later it happens the better chance of snow. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? This is no different from any other event. Too many bipolars here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? Who said storm cancel? Sometimes people confuse analysis with a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Who said storm cancel? Sometimes people confuse analysis with a forecast. Any thoughts on second wave? It's close at 5/700 but axis isn't gonna do it. I think it's too late to expect any help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z rgem has a stuck in between look too it also. Gets the frontal wave going but then kills it right over us as the coastal forms but way too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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