Sparky Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 All over what? He had it depicted on his in house model future cast, and said that it looked more promising for more snow than the current storm that was unfolding yesterday. Plus he mentioned the temps would be falling off rather quickly, followed by colder weather Saturday and **** like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At least the HPC snow probability maps look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Fool's gold. You're welcome Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Fool's gold. You're welcome Bob. Gfs is gonna rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Individual members: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_15z/srefloop.html Everything from a complete miss to legit PD3. ARW3 shows my capture scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF plumes are out. Mean DCA snowfall for: NMM members: 2.5" NMB members: 0.6" ARW members: 15.5", including two 30"+ storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF plumes are out. Mean DCA snowfall for: NMM members: 2.5" NMB members: 0.6" ARW members: 15.5", including two 30"+ storms with the ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD This is why the public laughs at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is whay the public laughs at us. Not much of the public reads that discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 with the ARW 70" in Scranton, PA on one of the members with a >30:1 ratio. A cautionary tale about using the SREF mean as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs is back to the first wave idea. Lol. Does any model agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD Give them points for honesty at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs is back to the first wave idea. Lol. Does any model agree? close to something on the back end too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gfs is back to the first wave idea. Lol. Does any model agree? Rain to snow transition is between 0z and 3z. Still a good amount of precip after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rain to snow transition is between 0z and 3z. Still a good amount of precip after that. Were getting 18z'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This front has some punch, rain and showers preceeds it and possibly an isolated thunderstorm, temp drops 10-15 degrees in 2 hours and rain changes to snow in early hours on Saturday. Sunday looks really cold, even DCA lloks to not get above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 close to something on the back end too http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&cycle=18ℑ=gfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_054_700_rh_ht.gif It thinks about it bit just not the right trough alignment. We're outside looking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like it's drying up to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like the models are diverging again after looking at least sort of similar at 00Z, 06Z, and 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? Nah, nobody is really buying in yet. We cant get run to run on the same model or agreement within a suite. Its a modeled mess. Only thing I'm biting on is there is prob gonna be some precip. The later it happens the better chance of snow. That's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? This is no different from any other event. Too many bipolars here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm sorry but people are unbelievable. The amount of hugging going on is ridiculous. So 6 straight NAM/GFS runs give us snow and most are on board, then the 18z NAM flip flops and it immediately goes to storm cancel. Really? Who said storm cancel? Sometimes people confuse analysis with a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Who said storm cancel? Sometimes people confuse analysis with a forecast. Any thoughts on second wave? It's close at 5/700 but axis isn't gonna do it. I think it's too late to expect any help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z rgem has a stuck in between look too it also. Gets the frontal wave going but then kills it right over us as the coastal forms but way too late for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z rgem has a stuck in between look too it also. Gets the frontal wave going but then kills it right over us as the coastal forms but way too late for us. first wave is alive and well on it hey, nothing wrong with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 first wave is alive and well on it hey, nothing wrong with that after closer inspection take a look at the 5H and then the 7H RH map at 48 hrs on the RGEM keeps possibility of something more on the table, albeit not that great a chance http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think randy said it well. Fools gold. It's not beyond the realm to get the second wave cranking but inside of 48 and no model porn isnt a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is no different from any other event. Too many bipolars here It really isn't and in most events I think I live in an alternate universe. To me, the 18Z GFS looks a little worse than the 12Z. It now is banking all on the 1st shot which is .30 or so with the 1st half not getting to 34 or 35 until 06Z unless the Plymouth site does goofy things with the surface temp at DCA. Now the NAM has little and the Euro has little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Any thoughts on second wave? It's close at 5/700 but axis isn't gonna do it. I think it's too late to expect any help there. This is getting more complicated and usually that is not good. My feeling is the models are having issues resolving this. But the trend is now one I don't love. They seem to be now putting more into the trailing system forming the coastal but at the expense of the frontal wave. I think the sref members tell the story. There is an outside shot this all comes together and we get nailed but a better one that at the critical time for us these factors play off each other a bit too long and it's too late for us. That's my gut but the weenie in me will be watching with hope if not optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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