Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If we had a shutout this year I would get excited to just see an inch of snow, but at this point...give me a significant event or bring on spring. Speak for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not trying to project a model run, but the NAM looks like a 2-parter. Rain Friday aft/eve, then a break, then snow (presumably) would fill in on Saturday morning. I really hope it gets "part II" going fast or else we get the familiar screw job. My fear here is the energy gets split and that is the worst solution for us, we need something to consolidate and go boom fast for our area or else we get conversational crap and NYC north gets another event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Speak for yourself. this stuff is getting pretty old. what a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What precip after 36? Not much at 42 hr and a little to the east. I've never liked these events wherre you count on development overhead, they often let you down. My two worst bust came from trying to get a storm going with the band forming right ovr it. Once I went to be with a winter storm warning and woke up to sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Speak for yourself. I am speaking for myself last time I checked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Fixed % don't add to 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 this stuff is getting pretty old. what a waste of time. If I spent my day refreshing the NCEP page I suppose I'd feel the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I really hope it gets "part II" going fast or else we get the familiar screw job. My fear here is the energy gets split and that is the worst solution for us, we need something to consolidate and go boom fast for our area or else we get conversational crap and NYC north gets another event. Yeah, I'm stepping through at 700 and I just want to yell at the NAM to slow the damn trough down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If I spent my day refreshing the NCEP page I suppose I'd feel the same must be tough being the most sane of the insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is getting old. What is the design feature of the models that show us something good only to snatch it away? Anybody ever notice that it nevers seems to work the other way? Must we always be clinging to scraps of hope for last minute changes or miracles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 54 hr radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 conversational flakes sat afternoon. yeeaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, I'm stepping through at 700 and I just want to yell at the NAM to slow the damn trough down. yea... the models are having issues resolving what to key on, the frontal wave or the vort behind it. Last night they jumped all over the wave, now today they are splitting the difference. Either one would do the trick in my book, although the trailing vort has the most high end potential for us, but at the same time if that is the one to develop it also has the most potential to give us nothing because by the time it gets going the trough may be too far east. Either way, I have the sinking feeling that we end up with an "in between" solution in the end and that means fail for us. On the other hand, its 18z, the NAM, and this seems to be a situation the models are having problems with, so I remain hopeful and intersted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the good thing is that there is time for the models to figure it out, though I'd take the GFS solution and be done with it if I could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like any lovin on the NAM is coming post 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 54 hr radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif everyone's probably above freezing till the very end unless it beefs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trough at 48hrs is pretty broad and has a positive tilt which usually doesn't get you much unless there is already a good deal of moisture nearby. My dusting to 1" is is looking better than my amended quote of dusting to 2 for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 at least the NAM is a total fail for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 a little faster than 60 hrs with this or a better negative tilt and we're in business http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 good thing it's the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I told you all Tommy T. was all over this yesterday at the 6pm forecast. I was surprised no one here was even talking about it....He backed off just a little at 11pm. I am curious to see what he thinks at 6pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD Sounds like they invited Ji to guest write the afternoon LWX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trough at 48hrs is pretty broad and has a positive tilt which usually doesn't get you much unless there is already a good deal of moisture nearby. My dusting to 1" is is looking better than my amended quote of dusting to 2 for DCA. Hanging your hat on the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD LWX was actually considering a WSW??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly a watch could potentially make sense. A watch can't bust so why not hoist one if it is meteorologically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 their map is pretty bullish compared to my zone Friday Night Rain likely. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hanging your hat on the 18z NAM? I've always like low amounts for DC, Someone still could get 1-3 if banding occurs somewhere nearby but to answer your question. I think the probabilities on the CWG forecast are pretty reasonable though I think Matt was right that we should have knocked down the heaviest scenario probabilities some and given them to the car topper category. YOu can always hope it's NAM hiccup but broad trough and trying to get snow going right over you is another really iffy deal and we haven't done well with iffy lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I told you all Tommy T. was all over this yesterday at the 6pm forecast. I was surprised no one here was even talking about it....He backed off just a little at 11pm. I am curious to see what he thinks at 6pm tonight. All over what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.