vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Fixed % don't add to 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 this stuff is getting pretty old. what a waste of time. If I spent my day refreshing the NCEP page I suppose I'd feel the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I really hope it gets "part II" going fast or else we get the familiar screw job. My fear here is the energy gets split and that is the worst solution for us, we need something to consolidate and go boom fast for our area or else we get conversational crap and NYC north gets another event. Yeah, I'm stepping through at 700 and I just want to yell at the NAM to slow the damn trough down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If I spent my day refreshing the NCEP page I suppose I'd feel the same must be tough being the most sane of the insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is getting old. What is the design feature of the models that show us something good only to snatch it away? Anybody ever notice that it nevers seems to work the other way? Must we always be clinging to scraps of hope for last minute changes or miracles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 54 hr radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 conversational flakes sat afternoon. yeeaah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, I'm stepping through at 700 and I just want to yell at the NAM to slow the damn trough down. yea... the models are having issues resolving what to key on, the frontal wave or the vort behind it. Last night they jumped all over the wave, now today they are splitting the difference. Either one would do the trick in my book, although the trailing vort has the most high end potential for us, but at the same time if that is the one to develop it also has the most potential to give us nothing because by the time it gets going the trough may be too far east. Either way, I have the sinking feeling that we end up with an "in between" solution in the end and that means fail for us. On the other hand, its 18z, the NAM, and this seems to be a situation the models are having problems with, so I remain hopeful and intersted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the good thing is that there is time for the models to figure it out, though I'd take the GFS solution and be done with it if I could Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like any lovin on the NAM is coming post 54hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 54 hr radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gifhttp://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_sim_radar.gif everyone's probably above freezing till the very end unless it beefs up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trough at 48hrs is pretty broad and has a positive tilt which usually doesn't get you much unless there is already a good deal of moisture nearby. My dusting to 1" is is looking better than my amended quote of dusting to 2 for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 at least the NAM is a total fail for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 a little faster than 60 hrs with this or a better negative tilt and we're in business http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&cycle=18ℑ=nam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 good thing it's the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I told you all Tommy T. was all over this yesterday at the 6pm forecast. I was surprised no one here was even talking about it....He backed off just a little at 11pm. I am curious to see what he thinks at 6pm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD Sounds like they invited Ji to guest write the afternoon LWX AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trough at 48hrs is pretty broad and has a positive tilt which usually doesn't get you much unless there is already a good deal of moisture nearby. My dusting to 1" is is looking better than my amended quote of dusting to 2 for DCA. Hanging your hat on the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Uh what? TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTYLINGERS. THUS...WL NOT ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. ONESHUD NOTE THAT CURRENT FCST IS NOT WORST CASE SCENARIO. From the afternoon LWX AFD LWX was actually considering a WSW??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly a watch could potentially make sense. A watch can't bust so why not hoist one if it is meteorologically possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 their map is pretty bullish compared to my zone Friday Night Rain likely. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hanging your hat on the 18z NAM? I've always like low amounts for DC, Someone still could get 1-3 if banding occurs somewhere nearby but to answer your question. I think the probabilities on the CWG forecast are pretty reasonable though I think Matt was right that we should have knocked down the heaviest scenario probabilities some and given them to the car topper category. YOu can always hope it's NAM hiccup but broad trough and trying to get snow going right over you is another really iffy deal and we haven't done well with iffy lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I told you all Tommy T. was all over this yesterday at the 6pm forecast. I was surprised no one here was even talking about it....He backed off just a little at 11pm. I am curious to see what he thinks at 6pm tonight. All over what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 neither do I, they are fun to look sometimes. Funny thing is I was noticing for a while that a few members of the SREF have been throwing out wild solutions that throw off the mean and make it useless at times. Then a met in the PA forum confirmed that NCEP is aware of the problem and is looking into a solution but that for now use the SREF with caution because it is known to have extreme jumps in short lead times before events. If you look at the maps (which come from grib files) you are fine. I think the only files in questions are some post-process bufr/sounding output from one group/subset of the SREF members (I forget which model). There is an error in the hourly precip calculation in the product generator code .... so I think this impacts only those things that use those files (i.e. SREF plumes for example), but not the grib-based graphics (such as the mean plotted on the MAG, and many others). In fact, I think the problem was first recognized by comparing the SREF plumes (and other output from the bufr files) with the 2D maps that came from the grib files. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 their map is pretty bullish compared to my zone StormTotalSnowRange.png Friday Night Rain likely. A chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Saturday Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain showers. Highs in the upper 30s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Love being a sandwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Honestly a watch could potentially make sense. A watch can't bust so why not hoist one if it is meteorologically possible. A watch is supposed to verify 50% of time, that's why. The chances of getting 5 inches is not even 10% imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 A watch is supposed to verify 50% of time, that's why. The chances of getting 5 inches is not even 10% imo. Are you talking about for the entire winter season? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 LOL on Snow map! Who lives here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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