swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The more concerning question about this is can the gfs be better than the euro twice in the same week? GFS > CRAS > Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I was with you except for the HECS and MECS talk. And the fact that you didn't include a whiff. To me a whiff is off the table... its too close in and there's too much energy floating around for this to do nothing. The anafront with minimal dynamics is worse case to me. Models don't usually screw up something like that this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thats good to hear IMO... isn't that a hi-res model? It is also generally higher biased, with lower skill for threshold amounts in the light to 0.75" range: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/2013/201301/hiresw_east.201301.gif I'd hug it anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS > CRAS > Euro CRAS is always good for a laugh; Lets pop a cutoff low in Central NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It is also generally higher biased, with lower skill for threshold amounts in the light to 0.75" range: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/ylin/pcpverif/scores/2013/201301/hiresw_east.201301.gif I'd hug it anyway If it get's to .76 QPF i will make it my Valentine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 one thing you can say about new england is they're willing to hug whatever model gives them the most snow like anyone else And we don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And we don't? we do, that's why Ian said "like anyone else"...that is inclusive of us and everyone else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM got an upgrade today: @TropicalTidbits: The CMC/GEM model has had a major upgrade as well to a 0.225° x 0.225° grid, beginning 12z yesterday. What are the odds: CMC+NOGAPS same day Maybe it's on to something with this system tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And we don't? Hence the "like everyone else" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 While my concern of a full scale gulf to NE classic Miller A is obviously off the table at this point, I still think we need to be worried about a potential S MA-NE larger scale event. The trough axis orientation has been trending better and better the last few runs. What is screwing us up is the initial S/W progged to go thru NE tomorrow morning. If this trends weaker and/or further north than the models are forecasting, it gives more room for the backside shortwaves to dig in to the trough and amplify it and best case turn our anafront in to a nicely phased vort pass and less than 5 % chance, absolute best case, capture situation, while a low develops off NJ and is pulled back west by the approaching vort. So my thought right now is: Cartopper: 30 % Nuisance Snow: 15 % Streak Breaker: 15 % Plowable (SECS): 25 % MECS: 10 % Capture (HECS): 5 % I can probably refine these after seeing tonights 0Z runs as the shortwave that is concerning me will be at intiailzation at that time. a 40% chance of a plowable event...good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 a 40% chance of a plowable event...good luck I would say more like 10% but what the hell do i know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CRAS talk can go in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 its dry, nothing in the immediate area is over .15 and most much closer to .10, and surface temps are torching. so two ways to look at this run.... Deb view: euro is dry and warm, verbatim it would just be some conversational flakes with temps in the mid to upper 30's. Glass half full view: Euro is trending towards a storm and is just late to catch on. It sometimes has problems with these small scale features within the flow, that in this case is significant to the development of our storm. My view: our luck has got to change sometime, might as well be now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM got an upgrade today: @TropicalTidbits: The CMC/GEM model has had a major upgrade as well to a 0.225° x 0.225° grid, beginning 12z yesterday. What are the odds: CMC+NOGAPS same day Maybe it's on to something with this system tomorrow? CMC has a low 100 miles off OC at 18z Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 lots of moisture gathering to our south in case anyone didn't notice I think we end up being on the edge of something bigger, but maybe not the right edge http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm tempted to assume ill get screwed and not even pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would be nice to get some of the other guidance upgraded so we have more then just the GFS/Euro as useful tools beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Why even make this post, go do it in the banter thread. Just as good as your gut feeling that this will be a decent event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm tempted to assume ill get screwed and not even pay attention I was in colorado a few years back with my sister on a ski trip. She made me promise not to look at the weather for the trip. Towards the end of the 10 days there, we got a 30" blizzard at Steamboat. Was nice to get something totally unexpected like that. Of course getting stuck on unfamiliar roads in a whiteout was not so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm tempted to assume ill get screwed and not even pay attention but then you'd be considered a normal person you don't really want that to happen, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So my thought right now is: Cartopper: 30 % Nuisance Snow: 15 % Streak Breaker: 10% Plowable (SECS): 5 % MECS: 0% Capture (HECS): 0% I can probably refine these after seeing tonights 0Z runs as the shortwave that is concerning me will be at intiailzation at that time. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I know... and it is troubling. In most situations where we need fast development right near our latitude you are right we are basically done because 99/100 the guidance is a little to quick to get cyclogenesis going. Rooting for a faster development right at the last minute is usually a fail. HOWEVER, this feels like perhaps we have a shot. This trough is primed so when things start to get going it will happen fast I think. This will not be a slow development. And the models are just now jumping on this, when we do get that rare instance of a storm popping just in time and trending in our favor it is usually at the last minute like that, where the models had a hard time picking up some small scale disturbace in the larger flow until the last minute like this. You mentioned the UKIE earlier, and it has much more precip in the western areas than the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thats good to hear IMO... isn't that a hi-res model? One that was absolutely awful with yesterdays precip amounts. At least a day out, that is. It could have changed closer in, but I never looked at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I have a work call in 5 mins, but this is quite interesting. Enjoy. DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST... PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A DEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOME LATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THE GUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THE WEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA, RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORE STRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS A STRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW), AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATED GUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEING GIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN ITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TO THE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FOR ATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. ...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML... ...500 MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What does this mean? "AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST)." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 15z SREFs have area in 0.25+ QPF in 24 hr QPF at hr 63... there is some 0.50-0.75 fill across N VA/DC/C MD and S MD which leads me to believe some of the individual members have better solutions for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anybody want to talk about the latest srefs? OK Yoda I saw your post. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's a pretty huge jump in the means, especially coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Srefs are awesome wrt improvement. Nice, hope nam follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 15z SREFs have area in 0.25+ QPF in 24 hr QPF at hr 63... there is some 0.50-0.75 fill across N VA/DC/C MD and S MD which leads me to believe some of the individual members have better solutions for our area Re: 2m temps, SREFs show that the temp is prob 33/34 at 42 hrs and 32 in DCA by hr 48.. but rises back into the mid 30s after... and back to below freezing by hr 57 with some individual members of the SREF showing snow still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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