vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 none really showed what I expected but P005, P008 and P010 were sorta there (at least at the sfc... no UA yet)... enough to keep in interesting. 0Z tonight will be telling IMO. So I agree... write it off... for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NCEP's WRF-NMM has about 0.25" through 12z Sat and precip still falling. Pretty much all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think since this is still an evolving solution we should wait a few more cycles before declaring absolute snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I really like this threat to be honest, as Phin said lots of evolution to continue, our final solution is probably not even on the table yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NCEP's WRF-NMM has about 0.25" through 12z Sat and precip still falling. Pretty much all snow. Thats good to hear IMO... isn't that a hi-res model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thats good to hear IMO... isn't that a hi-res model? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No Euro posts yet means partly cloudy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No Euro posts yet means partly cloudy? Bob Chill? TUweathermanDD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 No Euro posts yet means partly cloudy? I'm sure it is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 snow breaking out in wva at hr. 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nah. Not terrible, getting there so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is pretty dry as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hr 42 precip from roa near ric up into dc se. pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like the Ukie but weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The euro is dry but definitely a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 it's like we cut the NAM by 50% and multiply the Euro by 2, then get an average of the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 0.10"- 0.25" from ric to dc into se pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is pretty dry as expected hopefully we can squeeze out 1.25".. i need a big storm this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 0.10"- 0.25" from ric to dc into se pa. prob on the low end for dc at least.. contour just west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is pretty dry as expected The only storm its been really wet for was the SNE bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does it have that 2 separated "events" like the GFS or more like the NAM with just the Friday night/Saturday am period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does it have that 2 separated "events" like the GFS or more like the NAM with just the Friday night/Saturday am period? Evolving but trended gfs esque with that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 6hr. maps show nothing at hr 54 hr 60 but the total precip maps fill some in those hours so it seems that very light precip lingers like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 one thing you can say about new england is they're willing to hug whatever model gives them the most snow like anyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 While my concern of a full scale gulf to NE classic Miller A is obviously off the table at this point, I still think we need to be worried about a potential S MA-NE larger scale event. The trough axis orientation has been trending better and better the last few runs. What is screwing us up is the initial S/W progged to go thru NE tomorrow morning. If this trends weaker and/or further north than the models are forecasting, it gives more room for the backside shortwaves to dig in to the trough and amplify it and best case turn our anafront in to a nicely phased vort pass and less than 5 % chance, absolute best case, capture situation, while a low develops off NJ and is pulled back west by the approaching vort. So my thought right now is: Cartopper: 30 % Nuisance Snow: 15 % Streak Breaker: 15 % Plowable (SECS): 25 % MECS: 10 % Capture (HECS): 5 % I can probably refine these after seeing tonights 0Z runs as the shortwave that is concerning me will be at intiailzation at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 0.10"- 0.25" from ric to dc into se pa. prob on the low end for dc at least.. contour just west Correct. .12 verbatim for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My percetage for HECS is negative one million percent. I've seen a modeled anafront become a HECS before (granted it was in NE)... 2011 if my memory serves me correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, nice caveat. Granted...NE. If only we lived up there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The more concerning question about this is can the gfs be better than the euro twice in the same week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 While my concern of a full scale gulf to NE classic Miller A is obviously off the table at this point, I still think we need to be worried about a potential S MA-NE larger scale event. The trough axis orientation has been trending better and better the last few runs. What is screwing us up is the initial S/W progged to go thru NE tomorrow morning. If this trends weaker and/or further north than the models are forecasting, it gives more room for the backside shortwaves to dig in to the trough and amplify it and best case turn our anafront in to a nicely phased vort pass and less than 5 % chance, absolute best case, capture situation, while a low develops off NJ and is pulled back west by the approaching vort. So my thought right now is: Cartopper: 30 % Nuisance Snow: 15 % Streak Breaker: 15 % Plowable (SECS): 25 % MECS: 10 % Capture (HECS): 5 % I can probably refine these after seeing tonights 0Z runs as the shortwave that is concerning me will be at intiailzation at that time. I was with you except for the HECS and MECS talk. And the fact that you didn't include a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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