MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I hope that the depiction by the GFS does not play out as is. Will be painful getting chicken feed as areas further east/north cash in...again. Euro will be huge today. I hope that it shows a more westerly precip distribution. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Temps look pretty good. freezing line dancing arond i-95. Decent cold air source. The stronger the lp gets the colder we get with little issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 DCA: 2.7 -3.7 0.17 543 530 0.9 -5.5 0.06 538 528 0.2 -7.5 0.10 534 524 -0.9 -10.6 0.04 527 518 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 nice snows for RIC. Maybe add to the 1 inch of slop I have gotten so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 IAD: 5.1 -3.9 0.01 544 530 2.7 -4.3 0.09 542 529 0.1 -6.3 0.01 537 526 0.0 -8.6 0.10 532 522 -1.7 -11.1 0.02 525 517 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 BWI: 2.6 -4.7 0.11 542 529 0.5 -5.6 0.10 538 527 0.0 -7.2 0.09 534 524 -1.2 -10.3 0.05 527 519 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I hope that the depiction by the GFS does not play out as is. Will be painful getting chicken feed as areas further east/north cash in...again. Euro will be huge today. I hope that it shows a more westerly precip distribution. MDstorm Just once, I'd like the worry to be temps and not precip. Last night would have been a nice snow had we gotten more substantial precip. Guess I'll have to ride the srefs for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Quite a substantial jump west/intensification on the Saturday low by all the 12Z guidance so far. Ukie pummels SNE again. At 500MB, you'll notice the trof axis is closer to paralleling Lake Michigan which is quite a bit further west then as adverized a couple days ago, so you get the storm closer in to the coast. Nice trends all around and will be interesting to see how forecasters handle this as we are only in the day 2 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I hope that the depiction by the GFS does not play out as is. Will be painful getting chicken feed as areas further east/north cash in...again. Euro will be huge today. I hope that it shows a more westerly precip distribution. MDstorm dc can miss snow in any way possible. this will end up dusting dc and giving cape may 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just once, I'd like the worry to be temps and not precip. Last night would have been a nice snow had we gotten more substantial precip. Guess I'll have to ride the srefs for now. Me too. I am getting so sick of these sharp cutoffs just to my east. The only good news is this is far from being resolved despite being within 36 hours. Major bust potential with this set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 dc can miss snow in any way possible. this will end up dusting dc and giving cape may 10" Thanks Ian. The solution seems conspicuous and the UKmet is coming in with a more DC centric storm. Would like to buy into the GFS solution but I can't without the support of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not so sure Euro is going to be a lot of help. Have done marginally well this year, all piddling events, but really want something bigger. Not going to get emotionally involved with this. It popped up and whatever we get will be fine. (Remind me I said this we we are fringed out here in West) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 dc can miss snow in any way possible. this will end up dusting dc and giving cape may 10" My own guess is that DC ends up with an inch or less and guys in the better band wherever it ends up, get 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 dc can miss snow in any way possible. this will end up dusting dc and giving cape may 10" thx debrah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukmet is the best look with rgem, and ukmet has had this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My own guess is that DC ends up with an inch or less and guys in the better band wherever it ends up, get 1-3. Wow, i really thought you would go a little higher with this storm. If the Euro shows the same hit as the GFS and Ukie im sure you will up it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Bullseye to Delaware, that seems about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My own guess is that DC ends up with an inch or less and guys in the better band wherever it ends up, get 1-3. I firmly believe it will take a warning-criteria snow for most of the 'burbs for DCA to break the 2" streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I firmly believe it will take a warning-criteria snow for most of the 'burbs for DCA to break the 2" streak. The corn dust and steaming bath tub water of the Potomac will cut down totals. They will take snow measurements right under an airplane wing and it will somehow come in less than 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Well the 12z guidance answered my questions about how the trailing vort would play into all this. It looks like the trailing energy that was originially going to be "the storm" is now going to phase into the developing frontal wave. The 12z guidance has that happening a few hours too late for south/west of DC/BWI but this is still evolving. The guidance is just now getting a handle on this, and the details will change I am sure between now and tomorrow night. Ji, I know your freaking out about the GFS fringing you, but the 12z came really close to pulling this all together into something big. There is still a chance that last vort slows this down and pulls it in tighter and we get a better trend at 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z UKIE looks pretty good on the Plymouth maps... QPF is DC-centric at 48 (.25-.375). At 60, about .1 to .15 falls across the DC region... so I would surmise UKIE would be NAMish with around .5 QPF at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Was looking at the 500's. Seems like the GFS shifted the trough axis further west from 6Z. This a good trend IMO if we want to get in on banding with the low cranking east of DC. Edit: Would be nice to see the trough take on a more neutral tilt, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow, i really thought you would go a little higher with this storm. If the Euro shows the same hit as the GFS and Ukie im sure you will up it. Don't you realize that Wes doesn't just base his thought's off of a "hit"? That's probably why he's been pretty much perfect this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Was looking at the 500's. Seems like the GFS shifted the trough axis further west from 6Z. This a good trend IMO if we want to get in on banding with the low cranking east of DC. My greatest fear is having the axis so far west that this turns into Nemo #2 for SNE. Ah well, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wow, i really thought you would go a little higher with this storm. If the Euro shows the same hit as the GFS and Ukie im sure you will up it. The GFS is tricky, I has its precip spread out in two seperate events. The first will have trouble with temps are onset for dc and the second will be during the day. Plus, I would not be surprised to see the band shift. We're dealing with a small scale band and essentially your hoping you get in it. If DC does, DC might see someone get 1.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 My greatest fear is having the axis so far west that this turns into Nemo #2 for SNE. Ah well, it is what it is. I'll gladly take another Nemo for SNE if DC can get 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 t-2" sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Well the 12z guidance answered my questions about how the trailing vort would play into all this. It looks like the trailing energy that was originially going to be "the storm" is now going to phase into the developing frontal wave. The 12z guidance has that happening a few hours too late for south/west of DC/BWI but this is still evolving. The guidance is just now getting a handle on this, and the details will change I am sure between now and tomorrow night. Ji, I know your freaking out about the GFS fringing you, but the 12z came really close to pulling this all together into something big. There is still a chance that last vort slows this down and pulls it in tighter and we get a better trend at 0z tonight. My fear, besides Wes being bearish, is the dreaded east/west precip axis. How many times have we seen these sharp west precip cut-offs in the 2-3 day range...only to have things shift further east at game time? ---often. How many times have things shifted west? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The GFS is tricky, I has its precip spread out in two seperate events. The first will have trouble with temps are onset for dc and the second will be during the day. Plus, I would not be surprised to see the band shift. We're dealing with a small scale band and essentially your hoping you get in it. If DC does, DC might see someone get 1.5". I hear you, glad i don't live in DC maybe i can get under a superband and pull 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't like it for my region. Seems to develop JUST to my north and east. (Not to be mistake with SOUTH and EAST, when the bands usually move NW more than modeled. Warm at the surface tomorrow afternoon-- low to mid 40's. We start as rain, end as snow. Maybe a coating to an inch if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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