clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Let me be the first to welcome some of our new candidates for this years Weenie of the Year competition. The wishcasting in here is almost unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yes, several days before the V-Day storm I said 2-4, but was concerned about the temps. And the day before I punted because of temps. But also at that time I said this coastal storm would come back into play because I did not think this trough would dig so far south and east as to push it OTS. Again the trend is moving this thing back into play. It could still fail, but in my mind it is one of the best chances in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 a weaker or NW based event tonight has no pllay on the system tomorrow... in fact a weaker event could hurt our chances, because this second vort is whats help sharpen the trough at least to where it is (as I explained earlier). The coastal storm forms on a completely different boundary than the front tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yes, several days before the V-Day storm I said 2-4, but was concerned about the temps. And the day before I punted because of temps. But also at that time I said this coastal storm would come back into play because I did not think this trough would dig so far south and east as to push it OTS. Again the trend is moving this thing back into play. It could still fail, but in my mind it is one of the best chances in a long time. Is your wag based on baroclinicity, frontogenesis, convergence, or oscarmeyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 didnt you call for 2-4" in the dc area for the day before VD storm? This guy has 18 posts..... I don't think he's called for much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 thats probaby the most weenie thing I have ever seen out of him. dude needs to check the sfc... its torchy What he needs is to be taken out back and beaten with a stick, he has lost his mind. I used to at least enjoy to read his thoughts, mostly as a learning experience back in the day, then he went off the deep end. Worst was when he used IAD to verify a forecast for DCA. Not sure why anyone pays money for his crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What he needs is to be taken out back and beaten with a stick, he has lost his mind. I used to at least enjoy to read his thoughts, mostly as a learning experience back in the day, then he went off the deep end. Worst was when he used IAD to verify a forecast for DCA. Not sure why anyone pays money for his crap. Wow I didn't know about the IAD for DCA thing. Yes, I agree he used to be very imformative and I learned a lot from him early on, but last few years I dont even want to know what he's on... must be all that body building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 didnt you call for 2-4" in the dc area for the day before VD storm? To be fair, some of the more learned on this board also mentioned that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This guy has 18 posts..... I don't think he's called for much of anything. Wow, with my 19 posts i'd just like to say that i sincerely hope the Delmarva gets a significant snow this weekend, just to set in a fit all the snooty weather enthusiasts in this region who are apparently so full of themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man, GFS is close on the coastal. yea it is... but we probably need the vort to track further north. I am not sure with that frontrunning vort that the trough can develop enough ridging and go negative in time to pull this due north for us. It is likely to travel east at first then turn the corner. We might need it to develop further north over us... the RGEM is really close to that solution, and the GFS is not far off either. Of course I could be completely wrong and this goes all Jan 2000 on us, I mean if the Ravens can hit that pass against the Broncos why cant we get this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wouldn't really classify it as going nuts. They do wind it up a bit in to NE, but QPF is rather weak, though the rest of the SREFs looks dry as a bone. Radar right now over WV looks a bit more impressive than I'd expect. The NMM family tends to have a supression bias. If you remember, it supressed 2/6/10 off the coast pretty much up until 12 hours before the event. I don't really buy its evolution. A stronger front end wave almost certainly means a closer to the coast coastal, as it creates separation from the vort over NY this morning that is screwing everything up. A few of the NMM members give us over .5 and one is over .75 with the wave, compared to what we will likely get that is going nuts IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM is torching at the surface even up here, the cold comes in after the wave, its around 47 at onset of precip and around 36 at the end. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 59.2 for the high so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Funny thing is the south and east of the big cities have a better shot at something meaningful than north and west...the world is upside down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Funny thing is the south and east of the big cities have a better shot at something meaningful than north and west...the world is upside down. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 Thats been happening for three years now. Nothing new there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What's the Euro say for tomorrows storm? I'd be happy if I were in SE VA. 0.25 - 0.5 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'd be happy if I were in SE VA. 0.25 - 0.5 QPF Nothing up by DCA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nothing up by DCA? looks pretty bad overall.. guess the .25" SE VA is closer to that than .5.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nothing up by DCA? Nicks us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The area with the higher QPF is also going to have some sfc issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looking at the Euro txt output the area that has the best precip is torching at the surface. There is a very narrow area where some precip and surface temps of 33-34 intersect that perhaps an inch or two is possible across the eastern shore and up into extreme eastern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looking at the Euro txt output the area that has the best precip is torching at the surface. There is a very narrow area where some precip and surface temps of 33-34 intersect that perhaps an inch or two is possible across the eastern shore and up into extreme eastern NJ. snow map has pretty much everyone in that stripe around 1" except maybe the shore of md/de with 2" right at the coast... and then SNE with a good bit more. nothing in most of our area for the whole period through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If there is any coastal then as portrayed there is great promise. No real suppressive high and a low trying to crank up rapidly which almost always means a further west move.-10 850's would wipe out any surface warmth in steady snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If there is any coastal then as portrayed there is great promise. No real suppressive high and a low trying to crank up rapidly which almost always means a further west move.-10 850's would wipe out any surface warmth in steady snowfall. I could understand why having a suppressive high would be an issue if our problem was getting this storm to come north. It seems to me the issue here is the trough axis being too far east, once this storm develops it is going to pull north, its just too far east. What does having a high, or not, have to do with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I could understand why having a suppressive high would be an issue if our problem was getting this storm to come north. It seems to me the issue here is the trough axis being too far east, once this storm develops it is going to pull north, its just too far east. What does having a high, or not, have to do with that? Perhaps our methods of assessment differ somewhat. Beyond that I do not feel the need to explain myself to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Perhaps our methods of assessment differ somewhat. Beyond that I do not feel the need to explain myself to you.This post told him absolutely nothing. Your analysis of the surfacw features is essentially lacking scientific background, the simple truth lies in PSU's post, the base is too far east and we lack a negative tilt to bring it back enough. Thus, your reasoning about the storm going west because of no high is not only incorrect in this instance, but in more instances than not. Next time, it won't hurt to explain yourself. Knowledgeable people are here to teach something... If thats the demographic you are supposed to fall into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A few of the NMM members give us over .5 and one is over .75 with the wave, compared to what we will likely get that is going nuts IMHO. I didn't see that on the maps... I saw .25 contour max on any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 LWX has 1-2" for my area tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 rain has commenced. My skies are still blue and I got up to 59.2 today. I'm waiting for my rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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