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Revenge of the Weekend Warrior Storm: 2/15-2/16


PhineasC

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bottom line, tonight will likely be too warm for anything decent so I'm willing to sacrifice it

hence, I want the precip max to stay as far to the west as possible which will pi$$ us off tonight but, in my feeble weenie mind, means the front will be closer to shore tomorrow

then we have a shot at something better than what GFS currently depicts

maybe the Euro breaks our way

by the way, GFS gives BWI .10" qpf of snow tomorrow

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Seeing the SNE get it is one thing we are used to but when Hampton Roads gets pummeled it will take our despair to a level not seen since....well I'm not sure

I believe the level of despair this past Tuesday night was pretty low here.  Or was that Wednesday afternoon?   Anyway, congrats to the Hampton Roads.  I bet they don't even have a good sledding hill...

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I believe the level of despair this past Tuesday night was pretty low here.  Or was that Wednesday afternoon?   Anyway, congrats to the Hampton Roads.  I bet they don't even have a good sledding hill...

Mt. Trashmore I think...I used to live there...moved here because when I was there I envied you guys up here in winter..it's my fault

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Mt. Trashmore I think...I used to live there...moved here because when I was there I envied you guys up here in winter..it's my fault

Well we have to blame someone so thanks for taking one for the team. ;-)  Back on topic, maybe this can keep trending west?  I know odds are slim, but I need something to grasp besides straws.

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Sometimes you have to lose the battle (tonight) to win the war (tomorrow).

Well, not that I'm "sold" on much of anything this weekend (yet, at least!).  But I never really thought tonight would be much to think about given the BL temps, I was actually considering more Sat/Sat night if anything for any real possibility.  The "second wave" if you will.  Looks like that's still the case regardless of how much, in terms of any amount of snow.

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Well we have to blame someone so thanks for taking one for the team. ;-)  Back on topic, maybe this can keep trending west?  I know odds are slim, but I need something to grasp besides straws.

Not sure but with all the really smart folks we have here IF there was something that was going to pull it west it would have been identified...the whole axis needs go negative earlier maybe... there is no closed low to the west of us that could help pull it in...this close to gametime seems unlikely

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Not sure but with all the really smart folks we have here IF there was something that was going to pull it west it would have been identified...the whole axis needs go negative earlier maybe... there is no closed low to the west of us that could help pull it in...this close to gametime seems unlikely

I hear you.  Thanks for the insight.  I'll be back after the EURO runs to see who else is jumping off bridges. 

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Yes, several days before the V-Day storm I said 2-4, but was concerned about the temps. And the day before I punted because of temps. But also at that time I said this coastal storm would come back into play because I did not think this trough would dig so far south and east as to push it OTS. Again the trend is moving this thing back into play. It could still fail, but in my mind it is one of the best chances in a long time.

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Yes, several days before the V-Day storm I said 2-4, but was concerned about the temps. And the day before I punted because of temps. But also at that time I said this coastal storm would come back into play because I did not think this trough would dig so far south and east as to push it OTS. Again the trend is moving this thing back into play. It could still fail, but in my mind it is one of the best chances in a long time.

 

Is your wag based on baroclinicity, frontogenesis, convergence, or oscarmeyers?

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thats probaby the most weenie thing I have ever seen out of him. dude needs to check the sfc... its torchy

What he needs is to be taken out back and beaten with a stick, he has lost his mind.  I used to at least enjoy to read his thoughts, mostly as a learning experience back in the day, then he went off the deep end.  Worst was when he used IAD to verify a forecast for DCA.  Not sure why anyone pays money for his crap.

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What he needs is to be taken out back and beaten with a stick, he has lost his mind.  I used to at least enjoy to read his thoughts, mostly as a learning experience back in the day, then he went off the deep end.  Worst was when he used IAD to verify a forecast for DCA.  Not sure why anyone pays money for his crap.

Wow I didn't know about the IAD for DCA thing. Yes, I agree he used to be very imformative and I learned a lot from him early on, but last few years I dont even want to know what he's on... must be all that body building :P

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Man, GFS is close on the coastal.

yea it is... but we probably need the vort to track further north.  I am not sure with that frontrunning vort that the trough can develop enough ridging and go negative in time to pull this due north for us.  It is likely to travel east at first then turn the corner.  We might need it to develop further north over us... the RGEM is really close to that solution, and the GFS is not far off either.  Of course I could be completely wrong and this goes all Jan 2000 on us, I mean if the Ravens can hit that pass against the Broncos why cant we get this?

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I wouldn't really classify it as going nuts. They do wind it up a bit in to NE, but QPF is rather weak, though the rest of the SREFs looks dry as a bone. Radar right now over WV looks a bit more impressive than I'd expect. The NMM family tends to have a supression bias. If you remember, it supressed 2/6/10 off the coast pretty much up until 12 hours before the event. I don't really buy its evolution. A stronger front end wave almost certainly means a closer to the coast coastal, as it creates separation from the vort over NY this morning that is screwing everything up.

A few of the NMM members give us over .5 and one is over .75 with the wave, compared to what we will likely get that is going nuts IMHO. 

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