North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I see celebration from our friends in the SE Va area and the notion about a pasting for NE...that boxing day storm pattern just won't die, will it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gfs 36hrs 1004 mb, 60hrs 956mb. It misses us but still amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Oh they'll post....and whine about it not being enough. Seeing the SNE get it is one thing we are used to but when Hampton Roads gets pummeled it will take our despair to a level not seen since....well I'm not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gfs 36hrs 1004 mb, 60hrs 956mb. It misses us but still amazing. thats what a full latitude trough can do... as I highlighted last week... huge potential... granted it misses us... but still huge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've been saying it for a while now ...the 2" streak ends Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I've been saying it for a while now ...the 2" streak ends Saturday night. yay wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 bottom line, tonight will likely be too warm for anything decent so I'm willing to sacrifice it hence, I want the precip max to stay as far to the west as possible which will pi$$ us off tonight but, in my feeble weenie mind, means the front will be closer to shore tomorrow then we have a shot at something better than what GFS currently depicts maybe the Euro breaks our way by the way, GFS gives BWI .10" qpf of snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Seeing the SNE get it is one thing we are used to but when Hampton Roads gets pummeled it will take our despair to a level not seen since....well I'm not sure I believe the level of despair this past Tuesday night was pretty low here. Or was that Wednesday afternoon? Anyway, congrats to the Hampton Roads. I bet they don't even have a good sledding hill... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I believe the level of despair this past Tuesday night was pretty low here. Or was that Wednesday afternoon? Anyway, congrats to the Hampton Roads. I bet they don't even have a good sledding hill... Mt. Trashmore I think...I used to live there...moved here because when I was there I envied you guys up here in winter..it's my fault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Mt. Trashmore I think...I used to live there...moved here because when I was there I envied you guys up here in winter..it's my fault Well we have to blame someone so thanks for taking one for the team. ;-) Back on topic, maybe this can keep trending west? I know odds are slim, but I need something to grasp besides straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sometimes you have to lose the battle (tonight) to win the war (tomorrow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sometimes you have to lose the battle (tonight) to win the war (tomorrow). Well, not that I'm "sold" on much of anything this weekend (yet, at least!). But I never really thought tonight would be much to think about given the BL temps, I was actually considering more Sat/Sat night if anything for any real possibility. The "second wave" if you will. Looks like that's still the case regardless of how much, in terms of any amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sometimes you have to lose the battle (tonight) to win the war (tomorrow). We're pretty good at losing both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ironically, the warmer and more wonderful the weather today ...the more likely we get the coastal tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sometimes you have to lose the battle (tonight) to win the war (tomorrow). didnt you call for 2-4" in the dc area for the day before VD storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well we have to blame someone so thanks for taking one for the team. ;-) Back on topic, maybe this can keep trending west? I know odds are slim, but I need something to grasp besides straws. Not sure but with all the really smart folks we have here IF there was something that was going to pull it west it would have been identified...the whole axis needs go negative earlier maybe... there is no closed low to the west of us that could help pull it in...this close to gametime seems unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We're pretty good at losing both. "For want of a horse, the battle was lost. For want of a battle, the war was lost..." Something like that. Or, "a horse, a horse, my kingdom for a horse!" Those can easily be modified to incorporate "snow", I think! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Easy Forecast: Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Not sure but with all the really smart folks we have here IF there was something that was going to pull it west it would have been identified...the whole axis needs go negative earlier maybe... there is no closed low to the west of us that could help pull it in...this close to gametime seems unlikely I hear you. Thanks for the insight. I'll be back after the EURO runs to see who else is jumping off bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Let me be the first to welcome some of our new candidates for this years Weenie of the Year competition. The wishcasting in here is almost unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yes, several days before the V-Day storm I said 2-4, but was concerned about the temps. And the day before I punted because of temps. But also at that time I said this coastal storm would come back into play because I did not think this trough would dig so far south and east as to push it OTS. Again the trend is moving this thing back into play. It could still fail, but in my mind it is one of the best chances in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 a weaker or NW based event tonight has no pllay on the system tomorrow... in fact a weaker event could hurt our chances, because this second vort is whats help sharpen the trough at least to where it is (as I explained earlier). The coastal storm forms on a completely different boundary than the front tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yes, several days before the V-Day storm I said 2-4, but was concerned about the temps. And the day before I punted because of temps. But also at that time I said this coastal storm would come back into play because I did not think this trough would dig so far south and east as to push it OTS. Again the trend is moving this thing back into play. It could still fail, but in my mind it is one of the best chances in a long time. Is your wag based on baroclinicity, frontogenesis, convergence, or oscarmeyers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 didnt you call for 2-4" in the dc area for the day before VD storm? This guy has 18 posts..... I don't think he's called for much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 thats probaby the most weenie thing I have ever seen out of him. dude needs to check the sfc... its torchy What he needs is to be taken out back and beaten with a stick, he has lost his mind. I used to at least enjoy to read his thoughts, mostly as a learning experience back in the day, then he went off the deep end. Worst was when he used IAD to verify a forecast for DCA. Not sure why anyone pays money for his crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 What he needs is to be taken out back and beaten with a stick, he has lost his mind. I used to at least enjoy to read his thoughts, mostly as a learning experience back in the day, then he went off the deep end. Worst was when he used IAD to verify a forecast for DCA. Not sure why anyone pays money for his crap. Wow I didn't know about the IAD for DCA thing. Yes, I agree he used to be very imformative and I learned a lot from him early on, but last few years I dont even want to know what he's on... must be all that body building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 didnt you call for 2-4" in the dc area for the day before VD storm? To be fair, some of the more learned on this board also mentioned that possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baldereagle Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This guy has 18 posts..... I don't think he's called for much of anything. Wow, with my 19 posts i'd just like to say that i sincerely hope the Delmarva gets a significant snow this weekend, just to set in a fit all the snooty weather enthusiasts in this region who are apparently so full of themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man, GFS is close on the coastal. yea it is... but we probably need the vort to track further north. I am not sure with that frontrunning vort that the trough can develop enough ridging and go negative in time to pull this due north for us. It is likely to travel east at first then turn the corner. We might need it to develop further north over us... the RGEM is really close to that solution, and the GFS is not far off either. Of course I could be completely wrong and this goes all Jan 2000 on us, I mean if the Ravens can hit that pass against the Broncos why cant we get this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I wouldn't really classify it as going nuts. They do wind it up a bit in to NE, but QPF is rather weak, though the rest of the SREFs looks dry as a bone. Radar right now over WV looks a bit more impressive than I'd expect. The NMM family tends to have a supression bias. If you remember, it supressed 2/6/10 off the coast pretty much up until 12 hours before the event. I don't really buy its evolution. A stronger front end wave almost certainly means a closer to the coast coastal, as it creates separation from the vort over NY this morning that is screwing everything up. A few of the NMM members give us over .5 and one is over .75 with the wave, compared to what we will likely get that is going nuts IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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