TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just keep being right. Your winning streak is door to door so far. We need to break 2 streaks then btw wes im just messing with ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Heck, I thought I was being nice. We are just mad that you are never wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Does this have any chance of becoming a Miller B screwjob or is this a completely different setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's possible that the 17th snowstorm is not entirely dead. This event is a piece of the vort that phases into a coastal storm out in the Atlantic. 3 prices to this puzzle. The lead vort going to our north. This anafrontal wave and the trailing vort behind it. They all play on each other so it's a lot of moving parts to figure out. The last vort is getting closer to doing something. It could phase into and hold up the wave and amp it up. My gut says a stronger fri night system would squash the Sunday one. Either way what we want is one of these to take over and amplify. A bunch of weak waves fighting against each other ends badly for us. Right now the way things are trending I'm rooting for this fri night to be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just keep being right. Your winning streak is door to door so far. Well it wouldn't hurt for him to be wrong just once in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z RGEM looks nice for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 <p>12z RGEM looks tasteh at 48 -- QPF max of 14 on the B & W maps is just SW of DCA</p> <p> </p> <p>Ninja'd by Zir0b</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 12Z GFS looks similar to past two runs, just shifted east a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 <p>12z GFS looking a little further SE with the best precipitation.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like it reduced my qpf by 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Coastal L development also helps as well 51-57... BWI to DCA to EZF line and east have 0.5+ QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like it reduced my qpf by 80% This is one for the eastern sections. You are getting fringed, my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Dang...round 2 Saturday afternoon on the GFS as well. Blue line right on DC by 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like it reduced my qpf by 80% then look at this model instead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like the computers are jumping on the 1st disturbance instead of the 2nd for PDIII reminds me of 1/25/00 when everyone thought the 2nd sw would work out and it was the 1st one no, I'm not saying we get a 1/25/00 snow storm, just that the lead sw is the one that looks to be the one that does the work for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How nice...GFS even throws a bone to those poor suffering deprived snow weenies on Mt. Tolland and in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How nice...GFS even throws a bone to those poor suffering deprived snow weenies on Mt. Tolland and in Boston. meh, I don't care who gets what outside of our area as long as we can get in on the fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gfs reduced the qpf quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gfs reduced the qpf quite a bit increased it imby http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&cycle=12ℑ=gfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_072_precip_p36.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I will take the NAM for MBY.. GFS shifted SE. I hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gfs reduced the qpf quite a bit not s-e of dca all the way to cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gfs reduced the qpf quite a bit For you and points west, but it increased it quite a bit for points east. Almost 1" of QPF for MD eastern shore, DE and south Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For you and points west, but it increased it quite a bit for points east. Almost 1" of QPF for MD eastern shore, DE and south Jersey. Accuwx text looks too low for BWI only coming in at .35" I'd be surprised with that kind of sharp cutoff just north of the blue line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For you and points west, but it increased it quite a bit for points east. Almost 1" of QPF for MD eastern shore, DE and south Jersey. I suppose the takeaway here is we went from something tiny, to not so tiny, to pretty big in 48 hours. Even though the precip max moved in our yards, the swath as a whole looks more like a solid east coast storm. There is havoc going on right now trying to resolve this. Good indication of a dynamic and unpredictable situation even though we're just 40 hours away from onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Accuwx text looks too low for BWI only coming in at .35" I'd be surprised with that kind of sharp cutoff just north of the blue line All the way through 60 or 66 hours? On those low-res maps, looked like the blue line was right on the west shore of the Bay. Oh well, no matter, will be different in the end anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 These precip cutoffs are nothing new. The spread will adjust many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 it reduced qpf big time for DC too....i know 6z had JYO at .62...now about .20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It'll change, things are really interesting nonetheless, especially close to the bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 this almost looks like the solution that was on the models monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 it reduced qpf big time for DC too....i know 6z had JYO at .62...now about .20. No need to worry about that now. You know it will change. It is one model run and you already punted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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