Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 for the NE haters out there, NAM really pushes the system off shore, thumbs its nose to us, and takes most people on the east coast out of the money except the cape That's been the only logical solution for days. It's cruel and usual and logical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At this point, I think I will see more snow on Sunday than either late today or Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 At this point, I think I will see more snow on Sunday than either late today or Saturday. Going away for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well with .45qpf I'll take this set-up. Its all rain though really, you know its bad when raleigh clowns give 0. it's the NAM NAM gave me nothing on the clown maps Wednesday, so I'm not frightened by them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Going away for the weekend? Nope, I think we could see flurries to a dusting on Sunday. GFS has it most aggressively, but the NAM and Euro hint at it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it's the NAM NAM gave me nothing on the clown maps Wednesday, so I'm not frightened by them Were we in teh 50s Wed before the precip came? I think the NAM could be a little warm but also probab;y is a little wet. I still got dc at under an inch...oops with no accumulation. Maybe someone north gets an inch or two if it cools much quicker than forecast but it's still a loser storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yea lets buy the nam qpf over the euro/gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nope, I think we could see flurries to a dusting on Sunday. GFS has it most aggressively, but the NAM and Euro hint at it too. I think that Sunday is actually the better chance but am not sure the trough is quite sharp enough to deliver, especially on the euro. The GFS was close enough to watch. I note that the UKMET seemed to have dropped the big storm idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yea lets buy the nam qpf over the euro/gfs RAP is in the .25 - .40 range for the same general area. My guess would be a quick hitting .25+/- n-w of the cities and less as you move further s-e. Guidance seems to like putting the precip max in the jyo-mt airy-your yard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 RAP is in the .25 - .40 range for the same general area. My guess would be a quick hitting .25+/- n-w of the cities and less as you move further s-e. Guidance seems to like putting the precip max in the jyo-mt airy-your yard right now. yea I buy .25, some of which will be rain, so a general 1" MAYBE 2" is possible in some areas. Just saying that .5 on the NAM is probably way too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 50.1°F Full sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 yea I buy .25, some of which will be rain, so a general 1" MAYBE 2" is possible in some areas. Just saying that .5 on the NAM is probably way too high. Yea, it's moving too quick. Looks like 4 hours or so of decent precip tops. Both rap and nam like the idea of good rates but how much is snow is tough to guess. Maybe half? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yea, it's moving too quick. Looks like 4 hours or so of decent precip tops. Both rap and nam like the idea of good rates but how much is snow is tough to guess. Maybe half? ehh I am not going to spend time doing analysis of another 1" event. Sorry.. I know some really like those, but at this point its go big or go home for me. Only thing that can save this winter from a total fail for me is a significant event. Getting a few more 1"ers doesn't do it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 tried to post a map but the uploader is being funky...but if you look at H5 around 36 hours on the NAM you can see what our problem is easy. That northern vort that came across the lakes last night and is over the marritimes then is screwing up the flow and not letting the trough consolidate and go negative. If that was not there things would be sharper and the storm could bomb and hug the coast easy. Hopefully the models are off on that and things focus more on the trailing vort not the leader. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 still have not seen the GFS at 12Z but models did not weaken the first vort. There is still a way for us to get something from the coastal, but the chance of a sizable storm is completely off the table. For the coastal to get us in to any meaningful precip, the trough either has to not dig as sharply, or progress about 12 hours slower. The piece of energy that is rounding the trough and is developing the coastal is currently sitting over central NV. IF this ejects faster, getting in on some action from the coastal is possible. Our anafrontal wave is being set up by the piece of energy over Missouri right now, which we need to see amplify more than modeled and slow down for us to get in to a chance of anything with the coastal storm. Right now I think our chances stand like this: Whiff (anafront rain, nothing from coastal): 10 % Cartopper: 25 % Few Slushy Inches (not streak breaker): 40 % Streak breaker: 15 % SECS: 10 % I have adjusted %ages much lower because there is currently no modeling that supports the idea of the coastal developing early enough for us... however, it does not take a large change to make it happen and is well within model error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 tried to post a map but the uploader is being funky...but if you look at H5 around 36 hours on the NAM you can see what our problem is easy. That northern vort that came across the lakes last night and is over the marritimes then is screwing up the flow and not letting the trough consolidate and go negative. If that was not there things would be sharper and the storm could bomb and hug the coast easy. Hopefully the models are off on that and things focus more on the trailing vort not the leader. we need that to trend weaker and the vort currently in MO to trend slightly stronger to create enough separation/ridging in NE for the main S/W currently over NV to phase completely with the NS vort before rounding the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This one is prettier namprec.JPG sweet, jackpot! go me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at the SREF not a single member gets us with the coastal. Actually our only shot at something meaningful seems to be a few of the NMM members that key on the wave tonight and turn that into the main show and phase the 3rd vort into it instead of the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at the SREF not a single member gets us with the coastal. Actually our only shot at something meaningful seems to be a few of the NMM members that key on the wave tonight and turn that into the main show and phase the 3rd vort into it instead of the other way around. 9Z right? I wouldn't say any members phase the 3rd vort in to it? All the NMM members I see still have the coastal as it rounds the trough...just way out at sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 9Z right? I wouldn't say any members phase the 3rd vort in to it? All the NMM members I see still have the coastal as it rounds the trough...just way out at sea. Your right on closer look they just go nuts with the wave and this the coastal is suppressed. Either way the wave seems to be the show for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 ehh I am not going to spend time doing analysis of another 1" event. Sorry.. Looking at the SREF not a single member gets us with the coastal. Actually our only shot at something meaningful seems to be a few of the NMM members that key on the wave tonight and turn that into the main show and phase the 3rd vort into it instead of the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Your right on closer look they just go nuts with the wave and this the coastal is suppressed. Either way the wave seems to be the show for us. I wouldn't really classify it as going nuts. They do wind it up a bit in to NE, but QPF is rather weak, though the rest of the SREFs looks dry as a bone. Radar right now over WV looks a bit more impressive than I'd expect. The NMM family tends to have a supression bias. If you remember, it supressed 2/6/10 off the coast pretty much up until 12 hours before the event. I don't really buy its evolution. A stronger front end wave almost certainly means a closer to the coast coastal, as it creates separation from the vort over NY this morning that is screwing everything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Desperation is becoming evident in posts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 50.1°F Full sun Getting hazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just checking in here for a few minutes. So are we a no go for tonight / tomorrow? If someone says "cartopper"......I'm heading to the closest bridge without a bungee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 PS--Bastardi tweet said NAM with 6 inches for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 PS--Bastardi tweet said NAM with 6 inches for BWI. thats probaby the most weenie thing I have ever seen out of him. dude needs to check the sfc... its torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Getting hazy 54.6°. Obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS weakens tonight and makes tomorrow closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Man, GFS is close on the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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