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Revenge of the Weekend Warrior Storm: 2/15-2/16


PhineasC

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it's the NAM

NAM gave me nothing on the clown maps Wednesday, so I'm not frightened by them

Were we in teh 50s Wed before the precip came?  I think the NAM could be a little warm but also probab;y is a little wet.  I still got dc at under an inch...oops with no accumulation.  Maybe someone north gets an inch or two if it cools much quicker than forecast but it's still a loser storm. 

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Nope, I think we could see flurries to a dusting on Sunday.  GFS has it most aggressively, but the NAM and Euro hint at it too.

 

 

I think that Sunday is actually the better chance but am not sure the trough is quite sharp enough to deliver,  especially on the euro.  The GFS was close enough to watch.  I note that the UKMET seemed to have dropped the big storm idea. 

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Yea lets buy the nam qpf over the euro/gfs

 

RAP is in the .25 - .40 range for the same general area. My guess would be a quick hitting .25+/- n-w of the cities and less as you move further s-e. Guidance seems to like putting the precip max in the jyo-mt airy-your yard right now. 

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RAP is in the .25 - .40 range for the same general area. My guess would be a quick hitting .25+/- n-w of the cities and less as you move further s-e. Guidance seems to like putting the precip max in the jyo-mt airy-your yard right now. 

yea I buy .25, some of which will be rain, so a general 1" MAYBE 2" is possible in some areas.  Just saying that .5 on the NAM is probably way too high. 

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