yoda Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That should be wet snow 06z at both BWI and DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That should be wet snow 06z at both BWI and DCA it's over by 6z it is going to be similar to last night if the GFS is right, but DCA and BWI should see more snow than last night relatively speaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Little spot off SC/GA coast dawdles around and turns into a monster. I'll watch for it. Been on and off with the lows all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it's over by 6z it is going to be similar to last night if the GFS is right, but DCA and BWI should see more snow than last night relatively speaking Just this time 1.5 at Dundalk, 3 at towson if the gfs were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Obligatory precip post before nitey nite Congrats Ian, zwyts, and me. Sorry most everybody else. Carry on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Obligatory precip post before nitey nite Congrats Ian, zwyts, and me. Sorry most everybody else. Carry on gfsmax.JPG Enjoy your rain while I get some mangled flakes. I can't believe your not waiting up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Enjoy your rain while I get some mangled flakes. I can't believe your not waiting up for the Euro. this is late for me. plus I split a bottle of grandma with wifey. I shouldn't even be posting. breaking rule #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 this is late for me. plus I split a bottle of grandma with wifey. I shouldn't even be posting. breaking rule #2 Your such a lover, I can only imagine how happy Mrs. Chill is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just like the gfs precip breaking out at hr 42 in nc sc and va Raleigh up to ric and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is pretty close on Saturday. Looks like GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hr 48 snow from Raleigh to ric and NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ric to Raleigh 0.25" more east some precip makes it to near cho and ezf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is pretty close on Saturday. Looks like GFS Think we are down to 50-100 miles further west huge difference and that's good territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gfs has .50 from front runner. Euro .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 06Z NAM has drawn the developing low closer to the coast and instead of scooting it out to sea is now somewhat paralleling the coast. Except for some decent precip initially on the outer banks it is pretty dry up the seaboard. The low is also intensifying much more rapidly with a 979 low placed northwest @ 54hr of the comparable 00Z run that has the low at 989. Note: The initial wave is wetter then the 00Z run and more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at 500's there are improvements to be seen over the last 24 hrs of NAM runs. The trough axis has gone from a neutral look as it passes through the MA to a negative tilt. The progression of the trough through the region has slowed somewhat and the trough has sharpened. We are now also seeing obvious kinking of the trough on the eastern side of the base around the outer banks. As far as all vort and energy running through it is a convoluted mess to my eyes and I wouldn't want to venture a guess. I do have to wonder though if the fact that we are now seeing the trailing energy already exiting the base of the trough just off the GA and SC coast is a positive compared to 24 hours ago where it had this energy just beginning to enter and round the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 06Z pretty much held serve with regards to the 00Z on the surface. Just a touch dryer on the initial precip. It is also a touch weaker and slower with the developing coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trend is our friend. The coastal low is getting closer and closer as I predicted all week long. Some of us get too hung up on individual model runs - but the overall pattern is supportive of snow events not only this weekend, but for the next 7-10 days. Our 2" streak ends Saturday afternoon/night for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trend is never our friend. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 06Z pretty much held serve with regards to the 00Z on the surface. Just a touch dryer on the initial precip. It is also a touch weaker and slower with the developing coastal low. That initial precip was our best shot at decent little snow. That wave is being robbed to develop the storm at the base of the trough. That trailing vort was our storm a week ago. That one has most high end potential but we are also now going with the scenario most likely to leave us with nothing if the trough is pulled too far east by the time the coastal bombs. It's all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. as usual with any snow event around here, we will need luck of supernatural proportions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. As we will see posted time and time again in the next 24-48 hours. Congrats NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 as usual with any snow event around here, we will need luck of supernatural proportions Our luck has to change sometime. This is getting silly. Someone in our area really pissed off the snow gods. But with the nao finally cooperating and the stj active we have a shot the next 3 weeks. Each chance has to be watched. I won't be shocked if one gets forced to our south due to the nao. This one we just have to hope its another jan 2000 or feb 96 where the development happens faster then models see. It's a Hail Mary but maybe we break the streak that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. I have liked the trends we have seen over the last 24-36 hours and am hoping to continue to see that. Think if they do we might be in the game come kickoff. And of course Ji has a 100% guarantee on this so I am all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As we will see posted time and time again in the next 24-48 hours. Congrats NE? When the niño faded we knew the pattern was going to be a crap one for us and favor new eng. constantly being jealous of them seems to be a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When the niño faded we knew the pattern was going to be a crap one for us and favor new eng. constantly being jealous of them seems to be a waste of time. I don't devote myself being jealous of them. As you said a waste of time and I am generally happy to see someone cash in on this crap winter. I basically figure if I can't beat them I will join them. Now if I could only convince my wife to move up with me. Haven't really followed the initial slug of moisture coming in because the heavier precip is projected to be south and east of us but was wonder what your thoughts on that might be for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When the niño faded we knew the pattern was going to be a crap one for us and favor new eng. constantly being jealous of them seems to be a waste of time. We're not jealous at all. We're resentfully covetous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We're not jealous at all. We're resentfully covetous. Looks like Norfolk is gonna get hammered too. New snow capital of VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like Norfolk is gonna get hammered too. New snow capital of VA? when you draw a line from Norfolk, to DC, to PHL, NY and Boston, then connect Boston with Norfolk, you can see we're in the wrong angle of the triangle with these type events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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