Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ric to Raleigh 0.25" more east some precip makes it to near cho and ezf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is pretty close on Saturday. Looks like GFS Think we are down to 50-100 miles further west huge difference and that's good territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gfs has .50 from front runner. Euro .10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 06Z NAM has drawn the developing low closer to the coast and instead of scooting it out to sea is now somewhat paralleling the coast. Except for some decent precip initially on the outer banks it is pretty dry up the seaboard. The low is also intensifying much more rapidly with a 979 low placed northwest @ 54hr of the comparable 00Z run that has the low at 989. Note: The initial wave is wetter then the 00Z run and more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at 500's there are improvements to be seen over the last 24 hrs of NAM runs. The trough axis has gone from a neutral look as it passes through the MA to a negative tilt. The progression of the trough through the region has slowed somewhat and the trough has sharpened. We are now also seeing obvious kinking of the trough on the eastern side of the base around the outer banks. As far as all vort and energy running through it is a convoluted mess to my eyes and I wouldn't want to venture a guess. I do have to wonder though if the fact that we are now seeing the trailing energy already exiting the base of the trough just off the GA and SC coast is a positive compared to 24 hours ago where it had this energy just beginning to enter and round the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 06Z pretty much held serve with regards to the 00Z on the surface. Just a touch dryer on the initial precip. It is also a touch weaker and slower with the developing coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trend is our friend. The coastal low is getting closer and closer as I predicted all week long. Some of us get too hung up on individual model runs - but the overall pattern is supportive of snow events not only this weekend, but for the next 7-10 days. Our 2" streak ends Saturday afternoon/night for the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The trend is never our friend. Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The 06Z pretty much held serve with regards to the 00Z on the surface. Just a touch dryer on the initial precip. It is also a touch weaker and slower with the developing coastal low. That initial precip was our best shot at decent little snow. That wave is being robbed to develop the storm at the base of the trough. That trailing vort was our storm a week ago. That one has most high end potential but we are also now going with the scenario most likely to leave us with nothing if the trough is pulled too far east by the time the coastal bombs. It's all or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. as usual with any snow event around here, we will need luck of supernatural proportions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. As we will see posted time and time again in the next 24-48 hours. Congrats NE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 as usual with any snow event around here, we will need luck of supernatural proportions Our luck has to change sometime. This is getting silly. Someone in our area really pissed off the snow gods. But with the nao finally cooperating and the stj active we have a shot the next 3 weeks. Each chance has to be watched. I won't be shocked if one gets forced to our south due to the nao. This one we just have to hope its another jan 2000 or feb 96 where the development happens faster then models see. It's a Hail Mary but maybe we break the streak that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel strongly the models now see the general evolution. The trailing vort will amp into a storm the unresolved details are how quick it goes boom and how Far East the trough gets pulled by the first 2 impulses by then. I have liked the trends we have seen over the last 24-36 hours and am hoping to continue to see that. Think if they do we might be in the game come kickoff. And of course Ji has a 100% guarantee on this so I am all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As we will see posted time and time again in the next 24-48 hours. Congrats NE? When the niño faded we knew the pattern was going to be a crap one for us and favor new eng. constantly being jealous of them seems to be a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When the niño faded we knew the pattern was going to be a crap one for us and favor new eng. constantly being jealous of them seems to be a waste of time. I don't devote myself being jealous of them. As you said a waste of time and I am generally happy to see someone cash in on this crap winter. I basically figure if I can't beat them I will join them. Now if I could only convince my wife to move up with me. Haven't really followed the initial slug of moisture coming in because the heavier precip is projected to be south and east of us but was wonder what your thoughts on that might be for us up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When the niño faded we knew the pattern was going to be a crap one for us and favor new eng. constantly being jealous of them seems to be a waste of time. We're not jealous at all. We're resentfully covetous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We're not jealous at all. We're resentfully covetous. Looks like Norfolk is gonna get hammered too. New snow capital of VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like Norfolk is gonna get hammered too. New snow capital of VA? when you draw a line from Norfolk, to DC, to PHL, NY and Boston, then connect Boston with Norfolk, you can see we're in the wrong angle of the triangle with these type events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when you draw a line from Norfolk, to DC, to PHL, NY and Boston, then connect Boston with Norfolk, you can see we're in the wrong angle of the triangle with these type events If you think about it, this trend with these type of events actually started with the last major storm during the end of Feb. 2010. The one where NY got 20 inches. We need a good solid nino soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The problem for us, IMO, is the axis of every trough is just too far east. I don't know if that's a trait of nina's, but it seems every one has been centered at around our longitude when we would have been better off it had been about Cincinnati or even a bit west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when you draw a line from Norfolk, to DC, to PHL, NY and Boston, then connect Boston with Norfolk, you can see we're in the wrong angle of the triangle with these type any events Corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when you draw a line from Norfolk, to DC, to PHL, NY and Boston, then connect Boston with Norfolk, you can see we're in the wrong angle of the triangle with these type any events Corrected. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I have liked the trends we have seen over the last 24-36 hours and am hoping to continue to see that. Think if they do we might be in the game come kickoff. And of course Ji has a 100% guarantee on this so I am all in. I have liked the trends we have seen over the last 24-36 hours and am hoping to continue to see that. Think if they do we might be in the game come kickoff. And of course Ji has a 100% guarantee on this so I am all in. I like the trend too. I have always thought that when we break our losing streak, it will be in an unusual way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 he is like the Jesus of weather. When there is no hope....JB offers salvation. Agreed.. a complete fraud as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Corrected. I am not saying we are getting a big snow event this weekend but wouldn't it be something if we ended up anyways with a snowstorm. We have have been patient long enough right?? Lol Just trying to have fun when the majority have had enough of the BS like me. So close but still to far!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM @ 15 has decent rates with 925 freezing line running right through dca-bwi. Surface notsogood. Very similar thermals to vday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 12z NAM a lil west with the 1st patch of precip tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 congrats psu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We pray for heavy wet snow... hopefully rates can overcome the BL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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