PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM has a little burst with the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Burst of rain. Surface is toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM has a little burst with the first wave. Wait... wait... really... oh boy!!! Burst of rain. Surface is toasty. Oh yeah. Reality check. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Burst of rain. Surface is toasty. Kenny nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Might be time to shut her down, boys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Might be time to shut her down, boys. Honestly, in this 2011-2013 Winturd, why do we keep turning it on? Wonder if we can get any flakes on Saturday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Might be time to shut her down, boys. I will hang in until the NAM ensembles come in, those will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Might be time to shut her down, boys. Well, shoot...guess our fake punt on this system was foiled! Onside kick attempt for the lakes cutter event next week?? (Edit: Oh, wait, we have to actually score first before attempting an onside kick. Nevermind!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM on instantweathermaps through 35h shows no snow for basically the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Kenny nailed it Seems easy this winter I'm going to maintain that I will be happy to see a little white. Although maybe even that's a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Kenny nailed it How much rain, looks quite bit drier through 06Z and that may be why it's so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 How much rain, looks quite bit drier through 06Z and that may be why it's so warm. I am sorry for doubting you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Might be time to shut her down, boys. So we're ignoring the GFS huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You really do have to admire the way every possible snow threat gets ripped away from our area. It has it's own kind of awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 So much for your cheerleading. Why shut it down now? Maybe the models aren't catching onto a feature that will give us a 20" snow downburst. Not sure why you are coming after me. You are one of the most emotional and manic posters here (as shown by your post). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonickteam Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i just sold my snow shovel on ebay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So much for your cheerleading. Why shut it down now? Maybe the models aren't catching onto a feature that will give us a 20" snow downburst. I'm holding out hope for the rare snow derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I knew this would end poorly after we started the thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I knew this would end poorly after we started the thread.... No more "storm threat" threads. Please. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam did tick west with the surface low and front off of cape cod. Won't help us though. Edit: second batch of fools gold in Central Virgina at 48 hrs Probaly OTS but well west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It was never a snow threat. It was a model threat that the models picked up on 5 minutes ago and people ran away with. Vinyl even came out of retirement to talk about a Hecs. This is going to be the deepest sharpest trough anyone has ever seen in history. Maybe we'll get the usual. Rain, cartopper. 1-2" for Ji. Well, models are emotionless, so when models put out systems whether they be snow or rain, there's something there that's causing them to do that. Weenies dont cause a model to show snow solutions. For whatever reason, they have a knack of showing us a picture that we want to see, and then retracting it. And this isn't just happening in one or two models, it's across the board. The "cold" light snow we had around the 25th of Jan is a great example. That looked great on everything, especially the beloved Euro, only to wilt and die as we got closer. It seems lately, every event, if you can call them that, goes through the exact same progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It was never a snow threat. It was a model threat that the models picked up on 5 minutes ago and people ran away with. Vinyl even came out of retirement to talk about a Hecs. This is going to be the deepest sharpest trough anyone has ever seen in history. Maybe we'll get the usual. Rain, cartopper. 1-2" for Ji. It is true the "threat" suddenly showed up today. Or, more appropriately, "re-appeared" today. However, the models did indicate a good storm signal around the 18th. There were some weird solutions, yes, but overall it looked like a real possibility in many ways, and I know a lot of the more knowledgeable mets on here were saying the same thing about the overall pattern. Then it more or less evaporated, a sharp trough with the energy farther north (or something like that), which took the thermal gradient too far east. And since then, that's been the predominant solution. Seems that kind of thing has happened every time this year, a good signal and good overall pattern shows up, but nothing pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Post 45 hour...don't do it. Don't one person in here do it. Fool's gold II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I knew this would end poorly after we started the thread.... For whatever reason, that seems to be the case too. You started one that fell apart. I started one on what I thought was one of the best threats for my area, and it just dissolved. You won't catch me ever starting another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Post 45 hour...don't do it. Don't one person in here do it. Fool's gold II. Our only real hope is the vort dropping into NC at 48s being stronger and then deepening the low off closer to the coast to try to pull the NC precip back this way. That's probably a lot shot as each little impulse pulls the front a little farther to the east. Time to me to go bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Post 45 hour...don't do it. Don't one person in here do it. Fool's gold II. Don't worry, just another tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For whatever reason, that seems to be the case too. You started one that fell apart. I started one on what I thought was one of the best threats for my area, and it just dissolved. You won't catch me ever starting another. I thought it was when Ji gave a "100% guarantee" that we'd get PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Post 45 hour...don't do it. Don't one person in here do it. Fool's gold II. 45 hrs sure is a long way away Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I thought it was when Ji gave a "100% guarantee" that we'd get PD3. True, that was a good clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Nam did tick west with the surface low and front off of cape cod. Won't help us though. Edit: second batch of fools gold in Central Virgina at 48 hrs Probaly OTS but well west of 18z. the fact is, it is! one more shift like that and we really are in business not that I really care what anyone else does, but this one is far from punting what else is there to do anyway, wait for 2/22? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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