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Revenge of the Weekend Warrior Storm: 2/15-2/16


PhineasC

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It was never a snow threat. It was a model threat that the models picked up on 5 minutes ago and people ran away with. Vinyl even came out of retirement to talk about a Hecs. This is going to be the deepest sharpest trough anyone has ever seen in history.

Maybe we'll get the usual. Rain, cartopper. 1-2" for Ji.

Well, models are emotionless, so when models put out systems whether they be snow or rain, there's something there that's causing them to do that. Weenies dont cause a model to show snow solutions. For whatever reason, they have a knack of showing us a picture that we want to see, and then retracting it. And this isn't just happening in one or two models, it's across the board.

The "cold" light snow we had around the 25th of Jan is a great example. That looked great on everything, especially the beloved Euro, only to wilt and die as we got closer. It seems lately, every event, if you can call them that, goes through the exact same progression.

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It was never a snow threat. It was a model threat that the models picked up on 5 minutes ago and people ran away with. Vinyl even came out of retirement to talk about a Hecs. This is going to be the deepest sharpest trough anyone has ever seen in history.

Maybe we'll get the usual. Rain, cartopper. 1-2" for Ji.

It is true the "threat" suddenly showed up today.  Or, more appropriately, "re-appeared" today.  However, the models did indicate a good storm signal around the 18th.  There were some weird solutions, yes, but overall it looked like a real possibility in many ways, and I know a lot of the more knowledgeable mets on here were saying the same thing about the overall pattern.  Then it more or less evaporated, a sharp trough with the energy farther north (or something like that), which took the thermal gradient too far east.  And since then, that's been the predominant solution.  Seems that kind of thing has happened every time this year, a good signal and good overall pattern shows up, but nothing pans out.

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I knew this would end poorly after we started the thread.... :axe:

For whatever reason, that seems to be the case too. You started one that fell apart. I started one on what I thought was one of the best threats for my area, and it just dissolved.

You won't catch me ever starting another.

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Post 45 hour...don't do it. Don't one person in here do it. Fool's gold II.

 

Our only real hope is the vort dropping into NC at 48s being stronger and then deepening the low off closer to the coast to try to pull the NC precip back this way. That's probably a lot shot as each little impulse pulls the front a little farther to the east.  Time to me to go bed. 

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Nam did tick west with the surface low and front off of cape cod. Won't help us though.

 

Edit: second batch of fools gold in Central Virgina at 48 hrs Probaly OTS but well west of 18z.

the fact is, it is!

one more shift like that and we really are in business

not that I really care what anyone else does, but this one is far from punting

what else is there to do anyway, wait for 2/22?

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