PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think we can all agree Weatherguy701 needs to be booted out of the forum (again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rationalizations Gone Wild You are the most predictable poster in forum history. Never, ever broke character in nearly a decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think we can all agree Weatherguy701 needs to be booted out of the forum (again). Stop policing. I do happen to agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You are the most predictable poster in forum history. Never, ever broke character in nearly a decade. I love you too. Happy VD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If the HPC probabilities were done by Kocin, boot it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You guys realize that if this forum was for sensible posting about realistic impending weather events, there would be a few pages of posts a month. The speculation and even weeniness is what keeps most of us interested in this forum and the weather in general. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The thread is fine. There was a chance of accumulating and it didn't happen. We will take our .4 and be happy. On to whatever is next. Maybe 12z will be "smoking".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The thread is fine. There was a chance of accumulating and it didn't happen. We will take our .4 and be happy. On to whatever is next. Maybe 12z will be "smoking".... It didn't happen? It didn't happen? You got a time machine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tommy T on BAL goes for a few inches Saturday morning. No RPM model shown, just gave me the verbal. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It didn't happen? It didn't happen? You got a time machine? Don't let his username fool you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think we can all agree Weatherguy701 needs to be booted out of the forum (again). You are the most predictable poster in forum history. Never, ever broke character in nearly a decade. Can always trust Phineas for valuable input to the discussion To me, this one still has the C-2" look. Probably C-1" really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Tommy T on BAL goes for a few inches Saturday morning. No RPM model shown, just gave me the verbal. ;-) He used to be great, recently not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can always trust Phineas for valuable input to the discussion To me, this one still has the C-2" look. Probably C-1" really. The temp profile is still better than yesterday so it may turn out better than we think....I had a car topper so a solid inch would be exciting for me...sad but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 3 out of the past 4 NAM/GFS runs still ends the streak. That's all I'm really hoping for or expecting. Anything more will be a bonus, anything less I'd already be used to. These charts are using 8:1 ratios for any precip that falls as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 From where I sit, based on the models, overall pattern, trends, etc., I am looking at 2-4 inches DC area wide in two waves: First wave = 1+ inch Friday night into Saturday morning Second wave = 1-3 inches Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning This 2nd wave is the much hyped coastal low from earlier in the week that I said would reappear on the models as we got closer. Both the 18z NAM and GFS have brought this closer and closer over the last 12-18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Can always trust Phineas for valuable input to the discussion To me, this one still has the C-2" look. Probably C-1" really. If your weather predictions are anything like your football predictions I'll wax my snow shovel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 SREF plumes are out. Mean DCA snowfall for: NMM members: 2.5" NMB members: 0.6" ARW members: 15.5", including two 30"+ storms I was going to post if anyone has looked at the individual SREF plumes. my goodness. those ARW members bomb a storm right off HAT/ORF and aren't quick to move it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If you remove the obvious outliers of the ARW, you get a mean of 2.8" at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Friends, please enjoy your inch and hope for more. HPC snow probabilities are usually quite accurate. Guys, check the description on those products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml They aren't the final probabilities; they are a 28 member "auto ensemble" that includes all 21 sref members, 7 of the latest operational runs (in this case the ECMWF is the prior run), along with the HPC WWD's deterministic snowfall forecast that is sent internally to the WFOs for guidance. The reason why HPC doesn't go public with their deterministic snow/ice accum graphics is because the WFOs (and thus NDFD) have final say on accums and we don't want to add confusion or conflict within NWS products. So, the WFOs (and RFCs) can see that deterministic output from HPC via an internal webpage, usually by 0630 and 1830Z so they can have enough time to use those grids as guidance if they choose to. The deterministic accumulations (which is prism or elevation adjusted) serve as a baseline guidance for the field offices, while also serving as a member along with the 28 member autoensemble probabilistic forecast. Ah, but it is an important lone member in that it serves as the "mode" for those probabilistic calculations that you see linked from the HPC website. The forecaster-adjusted "final" probabilities are manually edited for the 4, 8, 12 inch 10, 40, 70 percent probabilities. They come out between 8-9 and 20-21Z. One other thing about those autoensemble probabilities: 21 of 28 members are the SREF components, i.e. 7 WRF members, 7 NMM members, and 7 NMMB members. In other words: very SREF heavy. So, if the SREF is out to lunch...guess what...so will the autoensemble. These adjustments should show up in the HPC final 4/8/12" probabilities, though we don't edit the 1, 2, or 6" inch probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The key to look for on 0Z runs is the mean trof axis staying parallel to Lake Michigan as much as possible and that will allow the vort diving into the plains to cut under it and ride close to the coast vs pushing OTS. We usually don't do well in these thread the needle events, however. This is a SNE event for sure... can you imagine waking up there tomorrow morning and "Surprise!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If this is an SNE event better call the national guard. They are having enough trouble trying to dig out of the Feb 8th blizzard lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 If this is an SNE event better call the national guard. They are having enough trouble trying to dig out of the Feb 8th blizzard lmfao I think it all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Guys, check the description on those products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml They aren't the final probabilities; they are a 28 member "auto ensemble" that includes all 21 sref members, 7 of the latest operational runs (in this case the ECMWF is the prior run), along with the HPC WWD's deterministic snowfall forecast that is sent internally to the WFOs for guidance. The reason why HPC doesn't go public with their deterministic snow/ice accum graphics is because the WFOs (and thus NDFD) have final say on accums and we don't want to add confusion or conflict within NWS products. So, the WFOs (and RFCs) can see that deterministic output from HPC via an internal webpage, usually by 0630 and 1830Z so they can have enough time to use those grids as guidance if they choose to. The deterministic accumulations (which is prism or elevation adjusted) serve as a baseline guidance for the field offices, while also serving as a member along with the 28 member autoensemble probabilistic forecast. Ah, but it is an important lone member in that it serves as the "mode" for those probabilistic calculations that you see linked from the HPC website. The forecaster-adjusted "final" probabilities are manually edited for the 4, 8, 12 inch 10, 40, 70 percent probabilities. They come out between 8-9 and 20-21Z. One other thing about those autoensemble probabilities: 21 of 28 members are the SREF components, i.e. 7 WRF members, 7 NMM members, and 7 NMMB members. In other words: very SREF heavy. So, if the SREF is out to lunch...guess what...so will the autoensemble. These adjustments should show up in the HPC final 4/8/12" probabilities, though we don't edit the 1, 2, or 6" inch probs. Unfortunately, you could post this over and over and folks still wouldn't get the message. Oh, wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think it all melted. yeah, lots of bare areas, but still 10"+ in some areas that has mostly shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 yeah, lots of bare areas, but still 10"+ in some areas that has mostly shade. That's really all that's left? That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Guys, check the description on those products: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/about_pwpf_products.shtml They aren't the final probabilities; they are a 28 member "auto ensemble" that includes all 21 sref members, 7 of the latest operational runs (in this case the ECMWF is the prior run), along with the HPC WWD's deterministic snowfall forecast that is sent internally to the WFOs for guidance. The reason why HPC doesn't go public with their deterministic snow/ice accum graphics is because the WFOs (and thus NDFD) have final say on accums and we don't want to add confusion or conflict within NWS products. So, the WFOs (and RFCs) can see that deterministic output from HPC via an internal webpage, usually by 0630 and 1830Z so they can have enough time to use those grids as guidance if they choose to. The deterministic accumulations (which is prism or elevation adjusted) serve as a baseline guidance for the field offices, while also serving as a member along with the 28 member autoensemble probabilistic forecast. Ah, but it is an important lone member in that it serves as the "mode" for those probabilistic calculations that you see linked from the HPC website. The forecaster-adjusted "final" probabilities are manually edited for the 4, 8, 12 inch 10, 40, 70 percent probabilities. They come out between 8-9 and 20-21Z. One other thing about those autoensemble probabilities: 21 of 28 members are the SREF components, i.e. 7 WRF members, 7 NMM members, and 7 NMMB members. In other words: very SREF heavy. So, if the SREF is out to lunch...guess what...so will the autoensemble. These adjustments should show up in the HPC final 4/8/12" probabilities, though we don't edit the 1, 2, or 6" inch probs. Thanks - this is very informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 new srefs, fwiw,are unimpressive with only around .25"+ qpf in the DCA/BWI area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 new srefs, fwiw,are unimpressive with only around .25"+ qpf in the DCA/BWI area Based on 18Z data. Let's clear the deck with 00Z. I think we can sink to new depths of ineptitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Based on 18Z data. Let's clear the deck with 00Z. I think we can sink to new depths of ineptitude. Let's aim for light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlowerLowerDE Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 From Mt Holly at 8:51pm: THE BIG PLAYER IN THE LONGTERM PERIOD IS THE POSSIBLE WINTER STORMSTARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH A BETTER PART OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY.MID-LEVEL TROUGHING, DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP IT BECOMES, WILL DICTATEHOW FAR OR CLOSE TO THE COAST THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES. SURFACECYCLOGENESIS IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTALPASSAGE FRIDAY EVENING AND MOVES OFF TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. DID NOTBUY INTO A WHOLE-SALE CHANGE WITH OUR SNOWFALL TOTALS AND USED AMORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH. LOOKS LIKE A SOLID 2-4 FROM PHILADELPHIASOUTH AND EAST WHICH WOULD PUT THEM CLOSE TO HEADLINECRITERIA...JUST DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ONE MODEL RUN. It's looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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