mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z rgem has a stuck in between look too it also. Gets the frontal wave going but then kills it right over us as the coastal forms but way too late for us. first wave is alive and well on it hey, nothing wrong with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 first wave is alive and well on it hey, nothing wrong with that after closer inspection take a look at the 5H and then the 7H RH map at 48 hrs on the RGEM keeps possibility of something more on the table, albeit not that great a chance http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think randy said it well. Fools gold. It's not beyond the realm to get the second wave cranking but inside of 48 and no model porn isnt a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is no different from any other event. Too many bipolars here It really isn't and in most events I think I live in an alternate universe. To me, the 18Z GFS looks a little worse than the 12Z. It now is banking all on the 1st shot which is .30 or so with the 1st half not getting to 34 or 35 until 06Z unless the Plymouth site does goofy things with the surface temp at DCA. Now the NAM has little and the Euro has little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Any thoughts on second wave? It's close at 5/700 but axis isn't gonna do it. I think it's too late to expect any help there. This is getting more complicated and usually that is not good. My feeling is the models are having issues resolving this. But the trend is now one I don't love. They seem to be now putting more into the trailing system forming the coastal but at the expense of the frontal wave. I think the sref members tell the story. There is an outside shot this all comes together and we get nailed but a better one that at the critical time for us these factors play off each other a bit too long and it's too late for us. That's my gut but the weenie in me will be watching with hope if not optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think randy said it well. Fools gold. It's not beyond the realm to get the second wave cranking but inside of 48 and no model porn isnt a good sign. i dont even know why you guys are looking for that but best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'll add this to the RGEM run http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/animateweb_e.html?imagetype=model_forecast&imagename=18_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_....jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I should clarify that my post is reference to getting a significant event. If you just want another car topper or 1-2" type thing that had a better shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i dont even know why you guys are looking for that but best of luck. I hope the r/s line misses you by 8 feet. Outside lookin in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I should clarify that my post is reference to getting a significant event. If you just want another car topper or 1-2" type thing that had a better shot. I'm hoping for 2" and just tossing around the possibility that we may get more with magic if there was the type of event that has great bust value to the upside, this would be it due to the dynamics, but that doesn't mean I expect it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i dont even know why you guys are looking for that but best of luck. it's gotten pretty sad...at least people use to hang their hopes on the GGEM or the DGEX....now they just hang onto even more nonsensical "what-ifs"...we have dozens of models...even when everything shows that a certain outcome isn't going to happen...we can always hope the millions of obs assimilated into all the major models must have missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 It really isn't and in most events I think I live in an alternate universe. To me, the 18Z GFS looks a little worse than the 12Z. It now is banking all on the 1st shot which is .30 or so with the 1st half not getting to 34 or 35 until 06Z unless the Plymouth site does goofy things with the surface temp at DCA. Now the NAM has little and the Euro has little. I don't think anyone really has high hopes for this thing, but some folks still enjoy the banter. If the idea is just to dismiss the threat outright due to the model runs not looking great then a thread isn't really required. Just post a banner at the top of the page that says "No Snow" and set the forum to view-only mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think randy said it well. Fools gold. It's not beyond the realm to get the second wave cranking but inside of 48 and no model porn isnt a good sign. Wow, Randy is on a roll, he's left his weenie side behind. It's something when he is voice of reason. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 it's gotten pretty sad...at least people use to hang their hopes on the GGEM or the DGEX....now they just hang onto even more nonsensical "what-ifs"...we have dozens of models...even when everything shows that a certain outcome isn't going to happen...we can always hope the millions of obs assimilated into all the major models must have missed something. Agree, just shut the forum down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Looks like we could get a few snow showers or even a squall Sunday morning. GFS has been consistently showing it for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is getting more complicated and usually that is not good. My feeling is the models are having issues resolving this. But the trend is now one I don't love. They seem to be now putting more into the trailing system forming the coastal but at the expense of the frontal wave. I think the sref members tell the story. There is an outside shot this all comes together and we get nailed but a better one that at the critical time for us these factors play off each other a bit too long and it's too late for us. That's my gut but the weenie in me will be watching with hope if not optimism. So it's a Miller B that isn't a Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i dont even know why you guys are looking for that but best of luck. It gives mitchnick a reason to post links to useless maps that won't verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm beginning to think that our chances of a good snow are less than us finding evidence of E.T. in the next two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It gives mitchnick a reason to post links to useless maps that won't verify aww, still sore at me for calling you out for unnecessarily making fun of posters? you'll get over it....on second thought, probably not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't think anyone really has high hopes for this thing, but some folks still enjoy the banter. If the idea is just to dismiss the threat outright due to the model runs not looking great then a thread isn't really required. Just post a banner at the top of the page that says "No Snow" and set the forum to view-only mode. Don't get upset that the models are decent enough to remove most of the wishcasting that dominated back a few years ago. Habits are hard to break around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't get upset that the models are decent enough to remove most of the wishcasting that dominated back a few years ago. Habits are hard to break around here LOL What is your desired end goal? Is it the scenario I described? There really is no reason to police the threads. It adds nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't think anyone really has high hopes for this thing, but some folks still enjoy the banter. If the idea is just to dismiss the threat outright due to the model runs not looking great then a thread isn't really required. Just post a banner at the top of the page that says "No Snow" and set the forum to view-only mode. This one is more of a curiosity than anything else. And this is what we do for entertainment. And surprises happen. I kinda thought we've been pretty realistic. In a weenie way of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So it's a Miller B that isn't a Miller B? I'm getting dizzy. Anyways it's valentines day and I need to go pay attention to the gf especially after she helped me dig our way off a freeway a few days ago. Maybe when I pop in to peek in the am we will be talking about weather nws should post blizzard warnings after 0z gfs and euro show the arw 2 ft solution. Happy vday everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm hoping for 2" and just tossing around the possibility that we may get more with magic if there was the type of event that has great bust value to the upside, this would be it due to the dynamics, but that doesn't mean I expect it These are my thoughts as well. While the possibility for this to produce better is there, and has been mentioned here and there, I don't think anyone is expecting this to produce a 4"-8" type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I don't think anyone really has high hopes for this thing, but some folks still enjoy the banter. If the idea is just to dismiss the threat outright due to the model runs not looking great then a thread isn't really required. Just post a banner at the top of the page that says "No Snow" and set the forum to view-only mode. Nails it. If this were a met only forum that had to pass on a forecast, yeah, you wouldn't want the less knowledgeable, weenie hopeful posters posting here. But I was under the impression that part of this forum was for fun. If a person says its not going to snow, they're going to be right 90-95% of the time. Everything, or just about, said last night was a lost cause, but many saw accumulating snow. For some it was fun to watch moderate to borderline heavy snow and huge flakes falling last night for a couple of hours. Can even the best met say to our region that there will no fun come from this? That's all most of us are looking for. Are we injured by hoping for a late turn for the better? With model agreement like this, is a moderate event not at least a remote possibility? Those HPC guys have DC in a 10% chance of 4". Is 10% not worth discussing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 This one is more of a curiosity than anything else. And this is what we do for entertainment. And surprises happen. I kinda thought we've been pretty realistic. In a weenie way of course. I don't know if it is an OCD thing or a control freak thing or something else but some individuals seem to have a need to organize and sweep these threads clean of basically everything except posts by 2-3 or three folks they approve. I don't really get the point in insinuating that if you are still posting in this thread you must be a delusional weenie grasping at straws. If that is the criterion then just shut the forum down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 LOL What is your desired end goal? Is it the scenario I described? There really is no reason to police the threads. It adds nothing at all. Not policing at all. I think it is just funny to say shut the board down. The will still be plenty of weather worth discussing. I just think the guys with red tags, saying stuff that differs with what we want to hear, should be listened too more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Let's not derail too much. It's a perception issue. If I was a met and I read these threads I would think they were too optimistic but there are distinct diffs between hobbyists and mets. Mets are more serious and scientific and weenies are more like fans rooting their favorite team. Fans root until any chance at winning is over. Winning this one is an inch or 2. Game is not over. 12z is gonna smoke us anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Let's not derail too much. It's a perception issue. If I was a met and I read these threads I would think they were too optimistic but there are distinct diffs between hobbyists and mets. Mets are more serious and scientific and weenies are more like fans rooting their favorite team. Fans root until any chance at winning is over. Winning this one is an inch or 2. Game is not over. 12z is gonna smoke us anyway If my grass gets a nice coating of white on it I will be happy. At least I'll still be able to drive I suppose. This winter has been tough on weenies all around! Well not NE I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If my grass gets a nice coating of white on it I will be happy. At least I'll still be able to drive I suppose. This winter has been tough on weenies all around! Well not NE I suppose. They're depressed because their 40 feet of snow melted in 40 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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