PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Talk about it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Aaaandwe jinxed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 We had a million posts about drizzle for the last storm but everyone is silent on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Phin ftmfw 700 shows that the lift and moisture is basically turning the corner right over or just east of us. If dynamics get going there could be some banding over us as low pressure starts turning. +TSN? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not much to say about this one other than it's much colder than the VD storm and is advection-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and car-topper #9 on the season..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Some room for earlier development and everyone good. Looks very promising considering what has transpired this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hi Ellinwood! Looks like a .4 or so QPF event... does look better than our past events this year except for that one clipper... again coming at night time so hopefully that helps (not that it really does anyway ) At least the 2m line is closer this time as well... decent h7 as Bob Chill has pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Hi Ellinwood! Looks like a .4 or so QPF event... does look better than our past events this year except for that one clipper... again coming at night time so hopefully that helps (not that it really does anyway ) At least the 2m line is closer this time as well... decent h7 as Bob Chill has pointed out. Temps on this run of the NAM are a lot better than the later runs on the VD storm (at least up here). As soon as precip starts it looks like it cools enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For clarification -- does the HI-RES NAM outperform the NAM itself? Sometimes I see that the HI-RES is colder in the 850s than the NAM itself. It looks very nice from its sim radar and the h7 presentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Temps on this run of the NAM are a lot better than the later runs on the VD storm (at least up here). As soon as precip starts it looks like it cools enough for snow. surface flow is out of the n-nw through the event because. Departing low n of the lakes is far enough east and hp is nosing down. From a setup standpoint, this is much much better than vd. We had to hang our hats totally on dynamics. That kind of surface flow would indicated a bigger spread between temps and dews. Gotta hope good rates come in quick to saturate as quick as possible. I hate virga. 850 winds also out of the west turning to nw as precip gets going. Dews could be low. Not really sure tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We're either going to break the streak or bust trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 surface flow is out of the n-nw through the event because. Departing low n of the lakes is far enough east and hp is nosing down. From a setup standpoint, this is much much better than vd. We had to hang our hats totally on dynamics. That kind of surface flow would indicated a bigger spread between temps and dews. Gotta hope good rates come in quick to saturate as quick as possible. I hate virga. 850 winds also out of the west turning to nw as precip gets going. Dews could be low. Not really sure tho. And that spells major league trouble for my area.....almost always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 And that spells major league trouble for my area.....almost always It can but with this system being west appears to be a problem because of dynamics and not winds. It's not an over the mountains type of thing. The sponge gets wrung as the lift/dynamics get going. That's why the precip max is so small. The nam/gfs want to wring a sponge out overhead. If that's not fraught with peril I don't know what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Posted in the other thread...this may still be evolving. Models are also developing that trailing vort more and more. Actually getting closer to pulling it all together. If that second vort can phase in this could trend bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Usually the storms that catch everyone by surprise are the ones that deliver. We were all focused on the VD non event meanwhile here comes something that could be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It can but with this system being west appears to be a problem because of dynamics and not winds. It's not an over the mountains type of thing. The sponge gets wrung as the lift/dynamics get going. That's why the precip max is so small. The nam/gfs want to wring a sponge out overhead. If that's not fraught with peril I don't know what is. Precip will expand as this develops problem is we are dealing with it at its inception stages. A faster development would put us in a more safe position. Nam took another good step at 12z. Waiting on rgem and gfs next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Posted in the other thread...this may still be evolving. Models are also developing that trailing vort more and more. Actually getting closer to pulling it all together. If that second vort can phase in this could trend bigger. It's possible that the 17th snowstorm is not entirely dead. This event is a piece of the vort that phases into a coastal storm out in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Posted in the other thread...this may still be evolving. Models are also developing that trailing vort more and more. Actually getting closer to pulling it all together. If that second vort can phase in this could trend bigger. You can see on some of the srefs what looks to be a more potent system potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Usually the storms that catch everyone by surprise are the ones that deliver. We were all focused on the VD non event meanwhile here comes something that could be better. We were talking about this for over a week. Of course right when everyone gave up it comes back so I guess it's a non surprise surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hi-res simulated refelectivity is showing signs of banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's the 09Z plume diagram for BWI. it has .26 for the mean and median qpf which to me look reasonable. I don't like this kink of event. It's too easy to go down in flames no matter what you forecast. I don't see this as being an event that produces .50" as It's a strange set up for that much precip. That said, we can always hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Precip will expand as this develops problem is we are dealing with it at its inception stages. A faster development would put us in a more safe position. Nam took another good step at 12z. Waiting on rgem and gfs next.If I had to hedge I would say we have a better chance at an event than a non-event. I agree.Our latitude is good for this stuff. There is potential for a good pop and its inherently tough to model even close in. High bust potential for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's the 09Z plume diagram for BWI. it has .26 for the mean and median qpf which to me look reasonable. I don't like this kink of event. It's too easy to go down in flames no matter what you forecast. I don't see this as being an event that produces .50" as It's a strange set up for that much precip. That said, we can always hope. I will never trust SREFs precip ever again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here's the 09Z plume diagram for BWI. it has .26 for the mean and median qpf which to me look reasonable. I don't like this kink of event. It's too easy to go down in flames no matter what you forecast. I don't see this as being an event that produces .50" as It's a strange set up for that much precip. That said, we can always hope. Haven't you ever heard the saying if you don't have anything nice to say say nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 At least the bar is still set at like 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At least the bar is still set at like 1-2 inches. A streak breaker is all I'm looking for. Entering a 3rd season without a 2" is horrifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Haven't you ever heard the saying if you don't have anything nice to say say nothing at all. Heck, I thought I was being nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Heck, I thought I was being nice. Just keep being right. Your winning streak is door to door so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Heck, I thought I was being nice. Reading between the lines, I'd say you guaranteed at least a car-topper! That's a win this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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