TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I was a little surprised to see this, but GRR NWS seems confident about a decent LES event across West Michigan. 6 to 10 inches http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=92564&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I was a little surprised to see this, but GRR NWS seems confident about a decent LES event across West Michigan. 6 to 10 inches http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=grr&storyid=92564&source=0 As long as the flow maintains some westerly component, I'm in. Too much of a northerly fetch, and I gotta watch from my porch. Set-up looks great for Muskegon/ points South. Grand/South Haven always make out with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 The models don't appear too impressive with this event, but the NAM looks to be catching on to it today. Fortunately, it looks like there will be a little bit of a westerly component so that more of the lakeshore can get the snow and not just South Haven and Benton Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The same holds true for NW IN and sw MI where a LES watch has been issued. Although I am on the eastern end, events like these with adequate wind trajectories can be significant even for me. But it does seem strange to be anticipating an event such as this as late in the season as we are when the lake should be frozen over. A little appetizer before synoptic possibilities for the main course next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The more the westerly component the better for me. I will take a WNW wind any day over the N or NW stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 The more the westerly component the better for me. I will take a WNW wind any day over the N or NW stuff. Your area does well with NW flow...as long as it is not too northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Your area does well with NW flow...as long as it is not too northerly. I haven't see a good event in the 3 winters I have lived here with a NW wind. It has to shift around to have a more westerly component. Things drop off dramatically once you get east of Zeeland with NW winds. Last year I can remember Holland getting well over a foot and the sun was shining at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GRR had an update in their AFD saying that Allegan and Van Buren look like the more likely spots for good LES as time goes on which again makes me think I am too far east for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 GRR seems confident in even inland locations getting some decent snows due to lake enhancement. They are still hesitant to go with lake effect warnings...my guess is they will switch to them once they see if the bands set up. It is interesting that at this time of the year the sun adds a convective element....almost thunderstorm like. Has there ever been good lake effect thundersnows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GRR seems confident in even inland locations getting some decent snows due to lake enhancement. They are still hesitant to go with lake effect warnings...my guess is they will switch to them once they see if the bands set up. It is interesting that at this time of the year the sun adds a convective element....almost thunderstorm like. Has there ever been good lake effect thundersnows? Usually see that with north/nnw flow events as that typically brings a intense single band. Unsure how common it is with more westerly flow events? Was surprised to see they went with a advisory here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 That would make sense, Harry. Thus, it is probably more common in places like South Haven to South Bend than here or GR. Yeah, I was surprised there were no warnings along the lake shore and that there were advisories so far inland. Did you see the zone forecasts? It looks sort of like they just copied and pasted the same thing. Kent County getting the same as Ottawa and Muskegon? Not if the NW wind is more northerly than westerly. They must be looking at some strong lake enhancement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 High resolution models are definitely indicating some enhancement and some noticeable moisture around Metro Detroit. I would't be surprised if parts of SE Michigan get 2-4" over the weekend. With a mostly frozen lake here, I'm doubtful anything fruitful develops in a widespread fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 High resolution models are definitely indicating some enhancement and some noticeable moisture around Metro Detroit. I would't be surprised if parts of SE Michigan get 2-4" over the weekend. With a mostly frozen lake here, I'm doubtful anything fruitful develops in a widespread fashion. Though it has backed back down to 0.11", last nights NAM had DTW at 0.29", hour after hour of TSSN I have never seen that with pure 100% LES from a model, even the NAM. The lake has been uncharacteristically kind to me this winter. MBY saw 10.3" fall from Jan 31-Feb 5, which was mostly lake effect with a little lake-enhanced synoptic snow. LES in these parts is usually of the T-1" variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Though it has backed back down to 0.11", last nights NAM had DTW at 0.29", hour after hour of TSSN I have never seen that with pure 100% LES from a model, even the NAM. The lake has been uncharacteristically kind to me this winter. MBY saw 10.3" fall from Jan 31-Feb 5, which was mostly lake effect with a little lake-enhanced synoptic snow. LES in these parts is usually of the T-1" variety. I guess this winter is proof that it is possible for Lake Michigan to produce decently for the Detroit area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 RAP precip showing nice LES bands over sw MI and Michiana overnight Friday into Saturday. Hope this comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I guess this winter is proof that it is possible for Lake Michigan to produce decently for the Detroit area. 2006-07 had been the best LES winter I could recall here, but it was more like constant dustings to a few 0.5-1.5" events. This winter has certainly proved that under the right conditions lake effect absolutely can hit here beyond the usual flakes in the air and dusting on the ground. 12z QPF for tomorrow/tomorrow night for DTW is 0.11" NAM, 0.10" EURO, 0.06" GFS. Dont wanna get hopes up but a typical lake event that has little to no synoptic forcing is a few hundredths on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 IWX radar now returned to service with dual pol capability just in time for the LES bands for this event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wasn't sure if this event was actually going to occur, but alas, it has started over the past couple of hours. Very nice dendrites dumping out of the sky right now and quickly accumulating. This lake effect snow is different from some of the other events this year in that snow flake size is nice, the ground is quite cold, and it is piling up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 From GRR NWS Update...I like! (Muskegon in a "Maximum snowfall" area).UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1013 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2013FORECAST AND HEADLINES STILL LOOK GOOD AS THE LAKE EFFECT EVENTHAS BEGUN TO INTENSIFY AND EXPAND THIS EVENING. LATEST RAP13 DATASHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT.TWO AREAS SHOULD SEE MAX SNOWFALL RATES LATER TONIGHT. ONE AREASHOULD INCLUDE THE FFX/MKG REGION...WHILE ANOTHER MAX SHOULD SETUPOVER THE SW CWA...INCLUDING LWA AND AZO. BOTH OF THESE REGIONS ARECOVERED BY THE EXISTING ADVISORY.TWEAKED FORECAST MINS A BIT WARMER FOR OVERNIGHT...WITH ONLY AMINIMAL FALL EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Had a nice period of ripping snow. Solid dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Only a T of snow today so far but radar is lighting up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The radar is forming beautifully after a pretty quiet morning, and the snow is coming down nicely. Has more of a steady "synoptic" look rather than the showery/squally lake effect look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It looks quite ominous outside. It seems like Florida in the summer time. Had morning sunshine and now the dark storm clouds are billowing up during the "heat" of the day. This is why I love LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It looks quite ominous outside. It seems like Florida in the summer time. Had morning sunshine and now the dark storm clouds are billowing up during he heat of the day. This is why I love LES. Had that look here on Jan 21st ahead of squalls, but this morning was actually more of a typical cloudy winter day here, no omninous look to the sky, it just started to snow from a typical winter sky. Thats another thing about lake effect, how things vary in very close distances from sky conditions, to snow, etc. We may have had a second of weak sun earlier in the day but that was it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wonder if areas near the river just south of Detroit won't see a quick 2" of snow with that squall pushing through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snowing like Woah Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wonder if areas near the river just south of Detroit won't see a quick 2" of snow with that squall pushing through. Yup. Heaviest snow I have seen all winter. Near whiteout. Air absolutely smothered with massive flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wonder if areas near the river just south of Detroit won't see a quick 2" of snow with that squall pushing through. It's got to be. A lot of that is sitting in one spot. I would think 2-4" is possible somewhere in the Detroit area. Where is Freak? Probably doing Cartwheels. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It's got to be. A lot of that is sitting in one spot. I would think 2-4" is possible somewhere in the Detroit area. Where is Freak? Probably doing Cartwheels. Lol Yeah it's been sitting there for like an hour and a half now and I'd guess probably 2" per hour rates based on what Michsnowfreak said...and more coming in from the west too. I'm about to see more instability induced 10 minute blizzards myself down here...getting as excited as I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wonder if areas near the river just south of Detroit won't see a quick 2" of snow with that squall pushing through. Downtown and Windsor will probably make out with 2-3". I have a grand total of a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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