famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 hurricane had a stat today that we had 16 event of a trace or more which is the same as the winter og 09-10. Obviously different outcomes. About the same back home (same number of trace+ events, that is). (your comment made me go check ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hurricane had a stat today that we had 16 event of a trace or more which is the same as the winter og 09-10. Obviously different outcomes. That's insane. The odds of seeing such little snow with so many storms must be really low. Hopefully we can cash in soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hurricane had a stat today that we had 16 event of a trace or more which is the same as the winter og 09-10. Obviously different outcomes. 14 measurable events here this year vs 12 in 09/10. Less than 0.8" per event this year vs. 6.5" per event in 09/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 14 measurable events here this year vs 12 in 09/10. Less than 0.8" per event this year vs. 6.5" per event in 09/10. It's almost like when I used to live in Jim Thorpe and woke up to a fresh coating just about every morning from December-February. BTW, don't even try and look at the NYC thread talking about this storm. I feel physically ill after trying to get through the final two pages. I won't count this out until I see the 0z runs tonight. For my shore friends that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I could only take one page of it...and it had been pruned a fair amount prior to me getting in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 21z SREFs are less amplified. .25+ river S&E.... .01-.25 for everyone else up to poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GOod thing adam cancelled this morning. Not a bad calll after all. 0z NAM is pretty dry..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 time to roll the gfs 0z dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 precip moving in at 30hr , surface warm abe and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 trough really digging at 48hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 trough really digging at 48hr A little more focused trough energy. This could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Friday night surprise is now a Saturday night special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 turning into a New England special at 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Stronger storm but just scrapes NJ big hit in NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Still have the friday night wave and just need a little more amplification on the sat night system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Canadian in yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Canadian in yet? Looks similar to GFS but produces a little more precip in area with coastal Sat night - 2" phl, 4" shore. Deepens storm to 964 mb near Maine Sunday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Canadian in yet? Yes, and it shows a nice hit in NJ, measurable back to PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks for the Canadian update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Gfs ensembles interesting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 As mentioned over in the NYC and New England forum, 2/24/89 is a epic analog for this potential event. Shocked at how wet the GFS ensembles are. Euro has gotta come west, we are just too close to ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z GEFS mean brings .5" qpf close to PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 72h total precip, that includes both the first wave and the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is consistent with a general non-event. A couple of split rounds -- one tonight, second tomorrow PM. Nothing-two (perhaps more in Ocean/Monmouth) through Saturday evening is your likely bet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro is consistent with a general non-event. A couple of split rounds -- one tonight, second tomorrow PM. Nothing-two (perhaps more in Ocean/Monmouth) through Saturday evening is your likely bet.... If that happens, it will be very painful. Potential for 12" of snow with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Heh yeah EC has held course. Biggest surprise of this event might end up being how 4 models (NAM, GFS, UKMET, GEM) managed to $h!t the bed, only to immediately reverse course 6-12 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If that happens, it will be very painful. Potential for 12" of snow with this. If I shoveled every inch of potential that a pattern spit out, I'd be getting four times my annual snowfall on the regular. You live in an area where potential and reality rarely work in tandem. Best to keep your expectations modest around these parts, even in the "favorable" patterns. This pattern is more favorable for Southeast New England but much tougher for us to collectively win on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If I shoveled every inch of potential that a pattern spit out, I'd be getting four times my annual snowfall on the regular. You live in an area where potential and reality rarely work in tandem. Best to keep your expectations modest around these parts, even in the "favorable" patterns. This pattern is more favorable for Southeast New England but much tougher for us to collectively win on. So it seems this winter is inherently doomed, but the stream of events is constant and one of them is bound to work out in our favor. What was that post a few days back, about 16'ish distinct events this winter. Granted, most of them were minimal 1-3" events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So it seems this winter is inherently doomed, but the stream of events is constant and one of them is bound to work out in our favor. What was that post a few days back, about 16'ish distinct events this winter. Granted, most of them were minimal 1-3" events. There was a stretch where we picked up a trace or more of snow on 11 of 16 days and only picked up 4" out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 FWIW the 6z GFS is a bit weaker with the low development on Saturday evening than 0z but stronger than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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