JCT777 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah apparently the ARW members are very amped. Doesn't ARW = Always Really Wrong? But seriously, seems like those should be completely discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 ...and you scoffed at my PD3 suggestion. I didn't scoff, I just laughed my a$$ off But, 6" is no PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I see no mention of the 18Z NAM.........and I see why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I see know mention of the 18Z NAM.........and I see why Why not? Moderate snow for the Outer Banks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I didn't scoff, I just laughed my a$$ off But, 6" is no PD3. I know, I was just teasin' ya.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I see know mention of the 18Z NAM.........and I see why 18z + NAM (outside of 24 hours) = Highly suspect at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If there is one thing I have learned this winter is that this is the year of the C-2 storms. So if it does snow......thats my call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Since the HPC is giving more weight to the 12z GGEM, GGEM ENS are a bit juicier as well. Has anything not trended juicier today besides the lost NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I see no mention of the 18Z NAM.........and I see why the problem on that run is by delaying the storm, the energy crashing onto the west coast pushes the trof out to the east. Obv models are still struggling with which wave or vort to key on to and develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18Z NAM has so much energy pouring into the trof at 500mb it is struggling on choosing which vorticity to key in on and is suffering from major convective feedback issues this run imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18Z NAM has so much energy pouring into the trof at 500mb it is struggling on choosing which vorticity to key in on and is suffering from major convective feedback issues this run imho. Good call. Alot of potential involved with this and the NAM is known for it's inconsistency and small run-to-run perturbations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rgem came in way less amped...if gfs comes in weak its time to bow down to euro again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 Rgem came in way less amped...if gfs comes in weak its time to bow down to euro again I will do no bowing until tomorrow midday. By which time I expect my snowfall range to either be tightened up... or completely different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is ok. Similar to 12z Damn, what happened.....it's very dry. 2nd vort gets sheared out by something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Trough isnt as sharp...looking more and more like a t-2 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is ok. Trough not as sharp and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ353 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013NJZ001-007>010-012>015-026-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-152100-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-COASTAL OCEAN-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-353 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERNNEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EASTCENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEASTPENNSYLVANIA..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Epic troll job by the 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Bri...its the 18z suite of runs. Tomorrow HPC mentioned that Planes would recon the Atlantic for the afternoon package. Be interested to see the sampling and how the models ingest it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Bri...its the 18z suite of runs. Tomorrow HPC mentioned that Planes would recon the Atlantic for the afternoon package. Be interested to see the sampling and how the models ingest it Looks like they shifted towards a 12z euro like solution. I dislike* when people say "'it's the 18z runs".... Eapecially. when We're inside 48hrs"..... While I agree it's a highly volatile set up, it's not what you would like to see. The SREFS seem amp'd because of a couple monster hits. Take them out, I'm sure the #'s drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 what should be noted is that we should still get snow (granted it may be c-3 again) but the potential does exist as you saw with the 12z runs minus the euro of something bigger. This is a very volatile setup. One moving part is altered slightly and it changes the whole outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Punting...coating to 2", 3" lolli's in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The general consensus outside of the 12z GFS has been coating-3. Yes, potential for bigger but model consensus has pretty much been coating-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 15z SREF, minus the largest (including 1 at 50") and smallest (no accum) 4 members, averages 3" at LNS. Probably still a little high, but reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Doesn't help it's going to be 50 tomorrow (and today). Glorifies flizzard incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Punting...coating to 2", 3" lolli's in NJ. That's surely been the theme of this winter! Probably a good call at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Gefs way less amp'd than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's surely been the theme of this winter! Probably a good call at this point. Yeah this winter could fill a piggy bank with all the Nickle and dime storms we have gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah this winter could fill a piggy bank with all the Nickle and dime storms we have gotten. I would love to figure out the per storm average lol. I'm thinking that Collegeville has seen around 9" total among around 13 systems, just unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would love to figure out the per storm average lol. I'm thinking that Collegeville has seen around 9" total among around 13 systems, just unbelievable. hurricane had a stat today that we had 16 event of a trace or more which is the same as the winter og 09-10. Obviously different outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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