tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thank you... what's your take? Perhaps late in the game to catch on to recent trends in accordance with the others? 12 for 12 on the GEFS is pretty telling. Something doesn't add up. My thoughts are wait till 0z and see how things stack up. Should get a better idea. The potential is there, as people have noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Glad to see Philly finally POTENTIALLY be able to cash in on a storm. Still hoping for a bit of a west trend, tired of being on the fringe of every storm. *Crossed fingers* Should be interesting to see which model wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HPC says the Euro is not the way to go... DEEP CYCLONE DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST...PREFERENCE: TOWARDS A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z UKMET/12Z GFS COMPROMISEWITH LOW CONFIDENCETHE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AMERICA ISEXPECTED TO DROP IN LATITUDE WITH TIME, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ADEVELOPING DEEP CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO LOSE SOMELATITUDE IN TANDEM, WITH ENERGY COMING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OFTHE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DEEPEN WITH TIME. THEGUIDANCE AGREES ON THESE IDEAS, BUT DETAIL ISSUES RIDDLE THEGUIDANCE. THE 12Z ECMWF AND ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE NOW THEWEAK OUTLIERS WITH THE VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC CANADA,RATHER THAN SHIFTING THEIR UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGYMOVING UP THE EAST COAST, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A WEAKER AND MORESTRUNG OUT CYCLONE FARTHER OUT TO SEA, WITH LESS PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/NEW ENGLAND THAN THEOTHER GUIDANCE. WITH TRENDS IN THE CANADIAN SWINGING TOWARDS ASTRONGER SOLUTION (AS ADVERTISED BY THE UKMET FOR OVER A DAY NOW),AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY LYING WITH THE NON-ECMWF RELATEDGUIDANCE, THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND 00Z ECMWF ARE BEINGGIVEN MINIMAL WEIGHT. THE PREFERENCE REMAINS A 12Z UKMET/12ZCANADIAN/12Z GFS COMPROMISE, WHICH IS PREFERRED WITH LOWCONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE STREAM INTERACTION/PHASING INVOLVEDWITH THIS SYSTEM, WHICH TENDS TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST INITSELF, AND SINCE THEIR SOLUTION OCCASIONALLY BREACHES THE 00ZGLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK (TOTHE WEST). THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MARKED AS A CANDIDATE FORATLANTIC TARGETED OBSERVATIONS/SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHERRECONNAISSANCE. SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHERPRODUCTS/DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATIONPOTENTIAL OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 when do the euro ensembles come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 when do the euro ensembles come out? they start around 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 More of the same coming from the Euro. Too dry, poor initialization of North American features.... particularly the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good to see the HPC throwing out the EURO - it has been quite inconsistent recently with the past few storm systems in this area. The GFS, on the other hand, has been impressive lately. It would be hard to go against it at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good to see the HPC throwing out the EURO - it has been quite inconsistent recently with the past few storm systems in this area. The GFS, on the other hand, has been impressive lately. It would be hard to go against it at this point.... Gotta side with the Canadian as well, just had a major upgrade from what I hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw 15z srefs increased precip... .5-.75 from mdt to just south of abe on south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw 15z srefs increased precip... .5-.75 from mdt to just south of abe on south and east Shouldn't we be relying on these pretty strongly right now? I just saw you put "FWIW" as if you were referencing a 2nd tier source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw 15z srefs increased precip... .5-.75 from mdt to just south of abe on south and east They aren't out NCEP yet. Where do you get early graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At this point would we be expecting my holly to be throwing up watches tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw 15z srefs increased precip... .5-.75 from mdt to just south of abe on south and east But how much is it worth? I'm just happy to see that this is a legit threat for accumulating snow. The 0z models will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Shouldn't we be relying on these pretty strongly right now? I just saw you put "FWIW" as if you were referencing a 2nd tier source. I wouldn't rely on them till after 12z tomorrow. Someone gave an excerpt from hpc or something that they need to go figure out why the srefs in the 12-24 hr period have been bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At this point would we be expecting my holly to be throwing up watches tonight? Possibly after the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 At this point would we be expecting my holly to be throwing up watches tonight? lol no, not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 But how much is it worth? I'm just happy to see that this is a legit threat for accumulating snow. The 0z models will be very interesting. about as much as lee's snowfall measurements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 about as much as lee's snowfall measurements Ha! Poor Lee... Actually, I thought you'd say it's worth as much as the NAM outside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw 15z srefs increased precip... .5-.75 from mdt to just south of abe on south and east you mean .25-.50, .5-.75 only touches the Jersey shore and Cape Cod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 you mean .25-.50, .5-.75 only touches the Jersey shore and Cape Cod this is what i have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 about as much as lee's snowfall measurements lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 about as much as lee's snowfall measurements How do I get into the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 this is what i have oh ok, NCEP is different. weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 For back home, I'm gonna keep the window open with a large range of 1 to 6 inches and hope to cut one half, the other, or part of both ends out of it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 How do I get into the mix. you've been pretty spot on since i moved here 5 years ago...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Another Jersey Shore special, continuing the trend since 2010. Too bad I'll be in Harrisburg for this one. Tonight's runs will be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Its hard for me to get excited without the euro, but maybe ggem will score a coup and be ruled new king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For back home, I'm gonna keep the window open with a large range of 1 to 6 inches and hope to cut one half, the other, or part of both ends out of it tomorrow. ...and you scoffed at my PD3 suggestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jg1 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 oh ok, NCEP is different. weird. Several individual SREF members are very wet from 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Several individual SREF members are very wet from 15Z. Yeah apparently the ARW members are very amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.