chubbs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Quite a ramp up since 18z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Finally models are sniffing out whats been on the table talk for several days. Now we just need a little more shift towards ABE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The RGEM has a nice look, and it would be just the onset at this time. (I'll be home in the Philly area this weekend so I suppose that allows me to post here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 well good thing you don't have to do that because half of that is non snow. Map i have shows around 3 or so for you. Which is solid to 850mb thicknesses are below freezing for 90% of the event, and that extends down to 1000mb level. Way more than 3 inches, the snow maps are not very accurate for coastal and ocean locations. I have followed them for years. Even if I somehow end up with only 3", this is a huge hit for Inland SNJ. Nearly 12" in some areas. 12z NAM, which has the same thermal profile as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Finally models are sniffing out whats been on the table talk for several days. Now we just need a little more shift towards ABE Yes, bring it on. These nickel and dime events are better than nothing, but I'd like to see at least 6 inches from one storm this winter! From what I've seen, it actually seems the Nam (and the Euro) sniffed this out first going back a few days ago (albeit not nearly as strong as the 12z GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Agree with quakertown, hope this shifts more towards ABE as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 850mb thicknesses are below freezing for 90% of the event, and that extends down to 1000mb level. Way more than 3 inches, the snow maps are not very accurate for coastal and ocean locations. I have followed them for years. Even if I somehow end up with only 3", this is a huge hit for Inland SNJ. Nearly 12" in some areas. your bl stinks to start off. The front gets a little hung up do to the storm development. hr 45 you have had .15 qpf but your surface temp is 39-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKIE that has more of an inverted trof look than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 your bl stinks to start off. The front gets a little hung up do to the storm development. hr 45 you have had .15 qpf but your surface temp is 39-40 I'm not going to argue with you but the low position is way out over HSE. That kind of low track is never rain here. Surface temps would drop into the lower 30's within minutes with that kind of atmospheric profile. Surface winds are out of the NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This period has shown potential for quite some time. Read Adam/HM and others posts from medium/threats threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The RGEM has a nice look, and it would be just the onset at this time. (I'll be home in the Philly area this weekend so I suppose that allows me to post here) I don't think there is a region restriction on who can post as long as it's weather related for this region. welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 UKIE that has more of an inverted trof look than anything. hour 48: its gfs'esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 With temps at 850 as cold as they are (< -5), this might be a case where the heavier precip will be snow while the lighter precip could be rain, though if the GFS is right, everyone should go over to snow towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 hour 48: its gfs'esque yea i just saw.. that hr 60 looked like an inverted trof sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 that has more of an inverted trof look than anything. It's from costal tom. It has close to a inch liquid for Phl hr 54-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 yea i just saw.. that hr 60 looked like an inverted trof sig It's not bud. Check NYC thread. Wetter then gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's not bud. Check NYC thread. Wetter then gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 With temps at 850 as cold as they are (< -5), this might be a case where the heavier precip will be snow while the lighter precip could be rain, though if the GFS is right, everyone should go over to snow towards the end. yea looking at the gfs probably south of i95 starts as rain or mix. i95 and esp just away from it would probasbly start as snow. The skew-t over wayne at hr 45 right when the snow is starting looks solidly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's from costal tom. It has close to a inch liquid for Phl hr 54-60 yea i just saw. I was merely going off what anthony posted which has an inverted trof look with the isobars pointing back like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 i agree with tom. It does. Nice trends today though. Lets see if the EURO can hop onboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If this occurred, the ratios would be over 10:1... the 700mb temps are greater than -12, not sure on the lift aspect yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So is this event now officially "Ray's Friday Night Surprise?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ray is checking the flight schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If this occurred, the ratios would be over 10:1... the 700mb temps are greater than -12, not sure on the lift aspect yet. AGreed. and limited winds in the snow growth region, dendrites galore. anyhow, just to emphasize the shift the models took, compared the 18z GFS from yesterday (right side of pics) to the 12z today (left side) precip shield shift: And the H5 look. This is the most impressive shift IMHO: Notice, less energy at the the front axis/leading edge and more in the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So is this event now officially "Ray's Friday Night Surprise?" You can name it that, but HM and Adam get the credit, hands down or shovels down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You can name it that, but HM and Adam get the credit, hands down or shovels down. Except I finally punted this morning on twitter :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Except I finally punted this morning on twitter :axe: I saw, as well as the rest of winter after next week lol, hence why you got the slush tag lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Except I finally punted this morning on twitter :axe: Poor guy! lol. i'd be worried this goes all #climo on us and hits NJ again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 HM gets 4 shovels out of 4 Torch Adam 2 since he twitted his other 2 shovels this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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