AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 9:41 AM, phlwx said: FWIW the 6z GFS is a bit weaker with the low development on Saturday evening than 0z but stronger than 18z. The RH fields look really moist. I see no big changes here or a trend towards the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Need to get through at least one more model cycle before this one is nailed down. The 06 GFS is rain to snow on fri night with best light snow west of phl. Sat night is a scraper with light snow south and east of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 @ the NAM's 1/3rd of an inch of rain back home this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NAM stronger with tonights system. 0.25-0.5 N+W of phl to LV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 2:08 PM, chubbs said: NAM stronger with tonights system. 0.25-0.5 N+W of phl to LV Along I-95 that's mainly rain. Even at Pottstown that's just maybe changing to snow by 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yup similar to wed night edit: Sat night system well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 2:23 PM, chubbs said: Yup similar to wed night Eh actually it looks worse, even NW of Philly its a lot of rain before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Elevation special once again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thinking tonight's event really is no big deal too warm at the surface temps dont even get below 34 along I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looking at the higher res output this doesn't look quite as bad as it did at first glance. 1-3" is not unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ray, would either one of these soundings be considered convective? I see total totals are around 49, 46 respectively ( 50 is the magic number).. just not sure where in the actual sounding itself, the convective properties lie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 2:47 PM, famartin said: Looking at the higher res output this doesn't look quite as bad as it did at first glance. 1-3" is not unreasonable. just gotta hope the timing slows down a little, which will allow the colder air to come in faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 2:48 PM, irishbri74 said: Ray, would either one of these soundings be considered convective? I see total totals are around 49, 46 respectively ( 50 is the magic number).. just not sure where in the actual sounding itself, the convective properties lie? There are some conditionally unstable layers in both soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Could be OK for a narrow band with best forcing. Another nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 2:31 PM, famartin said: Eh actually it looks worse, even NW of Philly its a lot of rain before any changeover. Yeah, I'm 5 miles from PTW and had almost no rain Wed. evening - basically all snow from the start hence the 2.3". Tonight doesn't look like a repeat of the good fortunes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS not giving in - has shifted a little west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Rain to snow NW of phl friday night. Then light snow sat night PHL+SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The hourly weather graph for Collegeville (19426) shows 3.1" of snow from 1 AM tonight through 5 AM Sunday. I'm guessing most will be confined to grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro is .1-.25 from phl on west. The surface looks warm. I don't think tonight is going to resemble anything like what occurred wed night. Looks like rain then maybe over to wet snow. Saturday phl on east may get some lgt stuff generall .1 or less, though immediate jersey shore may get a hair more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll keep my 1-3" call for back home but allow that it might just be a coating tonight and a coating later tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:04 PM, tombo82685 said: euro is .1-.25 from phl on west. The surface looks warm. I don't think tonight is going to resemble anything like what occurred wed night. Looks like rain then maybe over to wet snow. Saturday phl on east may get some lgt stuff generall .1 or less, though immediate jersey shore may get a hair more. yep. Time to focus on all of that potential next week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 6:16 PM, cast4 said: yep. Time to focus on all of that potential next week now. Well stated. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The timing of tonight's event is much faster = rain. We needed some cooling before precip start time. Should have seen temp spike ahead of front as well, even warmer than modeled. Rookie mistake . Nice to turn off the heat for a while anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Approaching 60F here! Awaiting my RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 MM5 would start precip tonite around 8 -9 pm. "Heaviest" (and I use that term lightly) around midnite, mostly done by 3-4 am with some lingering light NJ eastern counties. No frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 7:02 PM, Mitchell Gaines said: The timing of tonight's event is much faster = rain. We needed some cooling before precip start time. Should have seen temp spike ahead of front as well, even warmer than modeled. Rookie mistake . Nice to turn off the heat for a while anyway. It's ok mitchell, it happens. I'm trolling ray on fb with his 1-3 amounts for ttn. My call was 1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 7:02 PM, Mitchell Gaines said: The timing of tonight's event is much faster = rain. We needed some cooling before precip start time. Should have seen temp spike ahead of front as well, even warmer than modeled. Rookie mistake . Nice to turn off the heat for a while anyway. Veterans would have even screwed that up. West wind torch ahead of an arctic front sometimes is an overperformer even ahead of "overperforming" standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 7:50 PM, tombo82685 said: It's ok mitchell, it happens. I'm trolling ray on fb with his 1-3 amounts for ttn. My call was 1 or less. Yeah, you stop that now Its not over til later Saturday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 On 2/15/2013 at 8:04 PM, famartin said: Yeah, you stop that now Its not over til later Saturday night I support Ray's call, mabye a bit too bold though. 1-2 for ttn, 3-6 for Jersey Coast, 6-12 for Eastern Long Island and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 On 2/14/2013 at 4:35 PM, am19psu said: Except I finally punted this morning on twitter :axe: Winner! and maybe rest of the winter, another winner for adam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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