Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 only DVN would toss out "high confidence" amounts of 6" or more a week plus out. For the entire cwa no less. They are really putting themselves out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Alright I can't believe I'm posting this but its lolworthy for sure. DT rooting for east coast storm all the way. In model denial. Lol, violates wave physics? Once again DT doesn't know what he's talking about, it's a complicated jet pattern but there's nothing physically wrong with it. That being said, the fact that the jet streams involved with this are so complicated lowers my confidence that this will happen. There's 2 polar jets and 1 subtropical jet involved in this scenario. On the flip side, the fact that models have had this for multiple days already increases my confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Talked to an intern at MKX, sounded like everyone at the office were pretty hyped. Will be interesting to see if their afd's show this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Talked to an intern at MKX, sounded like everyone at the office were pretty hyped. Will be interesting to see if their afd's show this. Might be time for WSW's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Might be time for WSW's. MKE will have amounts in the grids by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 MKE will have amounts in the grids by Sunday And a Blizzard Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 MKE will have amounts in the grids by SundayWouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Might be time for WSW's. Did a rough calculation of the speed of the storm from the last GFS run. Colorado Springs to Cleveland track would be about 1200 miles. The storm takes about 50 hours to cover that distance. So were looking at a storm moving around 25mph! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 For all the ragging on MKX, they have yet to mention this system, though I'm sure that will change with this afternoon's AFD. I hope they hold off a day or two on hyping it, just have a better feeling if they start conservatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 La Crosse mentions it for the first time this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Euro ensemble mean images at 168 and 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Meanwhile, at the LOT offices, on Monday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just read DVN's discussion from this morning, and this sums it up: :facepalm: :weenie: Cyclone's probably none too happy that they are already forecasting as high amounts for this storm that is over a week away than they have had for the whole winter. High confidence of 6"+ eight days out screams "I'm bored, so I'll write whatever I want". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Classic panhandle hooker track. 1st and only calls, not biased in any way obviously Madison - 15" Milwaukee - 12" Chicago - 10" Minneapolis - 4" LAF - 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Classic panhandle hooker track. 1st and only calls, not biased in any way obviously Madison - 15" Milwaukee - 12" Chicago - 10" Minneapolis - 4" LAF - 1" That's what it looks like to me as well, a classic NE moving GLC, but given all some steadfast mets and some weenies expressing that it can't cut, I'll wait a few more days until I'm sold on the evolution of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 When comparing the 12z GFS and Euro ensembles at 168 hours: Both sets of ensembles have a closed east based -NAO between Iceland and the UK...both models attempt to raise heights over the Davis Strait and Greenland in response to the early week system bombing over southeastern Canada. A few things appear to happen though that results in the ECM Ensembles showing a bit more of a west based -NAO "extension" if you will and a better 50/50... First off...the Euro suite shows the early week storm digging much more aggressively and taking on a negative tilt over the mid-Mississippi Valley/western Lakes before closing off over the eastern lakes and moving east. This allows heights to rise more east of the early week system on the Euro suite than on the GFS suite...the closing off also allows the early week system to move east slower than what the GFS suite shows... Second off...The Euro suite initially has a stronger east based block...with a closed 552DM contour between Iceland and the UK from 96-144 hours, which causes the departing closed low (what's left of this weekends deep eastern US trough) to move east slower...which in turn helps further block up the pattern over eastern N. America and the NW Atlantic. In addition, in the image above, one can see that the Euro suite has much more energy dumping into the western US before our ejecting storm...although the energy ends up really digging down and doesn't appear to interfere with our ejecting storm in about a week, that is something to watch as more energy dumping into the west immediately behind our storm may encourage the storm to be embedded in more of a SW steering flow...and may also destructively interfere, although at this point I'm not too worried about destructive interference.So, there really is a lot to watch over the next few days...the first of which being if the models show the early week storm going more negative tilt early on and closing off...the second being how strong the east based -NAO (and eventually westward extension) is...and the third being whether or not the models trend more aggressive in digging energy immediately behind our ejecting storm...the main implications for a track shift (and I still think if the consensus track shifts, it shifts south somewhat) will be over southern/eastern IL, central/southern IN, and central/northern OH where right now the potential appears to exist for a good amount of mixing...a southward shift would allow those areas to see more snow...even with potential south shifts I'd feel pretty good from IA through northern IL/southern WI east into the lower Peninsula of MI into southeastern Ontario...or about as good as one can feel a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 OHweather is putting in work, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 afternoon DVN afd tones it down a little THE BIG QUESTION OF THE FORECAST COMES THURSDAY. FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A VERY STRONG STORM FOR THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM...IF NOT A BLIZZARD. HOWEVER...WHETHER OUR AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR NOT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...ONE OF WHICH DEPICTS THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE CWA WITH MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER WHICH BRINGS IN MORE WARM AIR AND AFFECTS US WITH ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW MIX EVENT WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS. IN GENERAL PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT AND BETTER VERIFYING ECMWF WHICH HAS THE LARGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE WARMER GFS EITHER. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS. YOU WILL DEFINITELY WANT TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM. FOR NOW THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS A BLENDED APPROACH...AND WE WILL HAVE TO REFINE WITH LATER FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 OHweather is putting in work, nice. Agreed. Well done...and much needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 OHweather is putting in work, nice. Agreed. Well done...and much needed. I had an hour between my last class of the day and the dining hall opening for dinner, and this filled the void nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I had an hour between my last class of the day and the dining hall opening for dinner, and this filled the void nicely. <shameless plug> You should get some Ohio U students together and come to Valpo's conference in March. </shameless plug> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CMC ENS show more snowy solutions for ORD than rainy ones, fwiw: GFS ENS seem similar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 afternoon DVN afd tones it down a little THE BIG QUESTION OF THE FORECAST COMES THURSDAY. FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A VERY STRONG STORM FOR THE MIDWEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS REMARKABLE CONSISTENCY AND CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST THERE WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM...IF NOT A BLIZZARD. HOWEVER...WHETHER OUR AREA WILL BE AFFECTED OR NOT IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. WE CURRENTLY HAVE DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS...ONE OF WHICH DEPICTS THE WINTER STORM AFFECTING THE CWA WITH MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ANOTHER WHICH BRINGS IN MORE WARM AIR AND AFFECTS US WITH ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW MIX EVENT WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS. IN GENERAL PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT AND BETTER VERIFYING ECMWF WHICH HAS THE LARGER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY DISCOUNT THE WARMER GFS EITHER. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS STORM VERY CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS. YOU WILL DEFINITELY WANT TO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM. FOR NOW THE LATEST FORECAST REFLECTS A BLENDED APPROACH...AND WE WILL HAVE TO REFINE WITH LATER FORECASTS. smart move considering no office should be saying what the morning AFD said this far out even if model agreement/consistency is good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GFS continuing to look impressive, albeit a bit faster. This trough covers essentially the entire western half of United States when it ejects, not sure the last time I saw that being progged consistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GFS looks north of 12z run through 150hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 18z GFS looks north of 12z run through 150hr. Surface low is actually a bit south of the 168 hr position on the 12z by 162. It actually sinks southward after the initial leeside cyclogenesis into the TX/OK Panhandle region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Actually further south and a tad weaker through 156hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Surface low is actually a bit south of the 168 hr position on the 12z by 162. It actually sinks southward after the initial leeside cyclogenesis into the TX/OK Panhandle region. Yep. Looking good again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Surface low is actually a bit south of the 168 hr position on the 12z by 162. It actually sinks southward after the initial leeside cyclogenesis into the TX/OK Panhandle region. So basically just to allow it to be classified as a panhandle hooker/low as opposed to a Colorado low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 So basically just to allow it to be classified as a panhandle hooker/low as opposed to a Colorado low? Essentially, yes. Going off on severe wx for a sec, diabolical shear in the Lower MS Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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