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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm


Powerball

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Let's not go overboard, it's two feet at best, though that would still be one epic storm combined with the inevitable wind.

 

Incredible runs though. Wonder what the flake size would be on the GFS model... Hopefully better than the GHD storm, but wouldn't complain if it was a bunch of smaller flakes.

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Good run for you, IA, WI, MI, and ON.

 

All plain rain here.

 

Low actually ends up pretty close to the 0z run at 12z Friday...pretty much over LAF.

 

 

A lot of smart people seem to be favoring southward adjustments but I have a hard time buying it...this wouldn't be the first time a powerhouse  west coast trough ate a 50/50 low for breakfast. 

 

Just have to hope it won't be too amped.

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Not for long...looks like it would flip to a period of snow or mix and then possibly back to light rain.

 

Maybe. Looks "warm" enough verbatim. 

 

A lot of smart people seem to be favoring southward adjustments but I have a hard time buying it...this wouldn't be the first time a powerhouse  west coast trough ate a 50/50 low for breakfast. 

 

Just have to hope it won't be too amped.

 

I'm certainly not smart enough to know, but I'd very surprised if this thing trends in my favor. As long as it maintains this "powerful" look, and with this track, I'm pretty sure its dunzo for LAF. But nothing is ever set in stone...especially 6+ days out.

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Maybe. Looks "warm" enough verbatim. 

 

 

I'm certainly not smart enough to know, but I'd very surprised if this thing trends in my favor. As long as it maintains this "powerful" look, and with this track, I'm pretty sure its dunzo for LAF. But nothing is ever set in stone...especially 6+ days out.

 

OHweather gave some nice thoughts but I agree with the bolded.  This seems to be one of those storms that the models seem intent on kicking out powerful piece of energy all in one piece...until we start seeing signals for something strung out, I think super supressed is off the table.

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Maybe. Looks "warm" enough verbatim.

I'm certainly not smart enough to know, but I'd very surprised if this thing trends in my favor. As long as it maintains this "powerful" look, and with this track, I'm pretty sure its dunzo for LAF. But nothing is ever set in stone...especially 6+ days out.

It's marginal, don't get me wrong (and the heavier snows are definitely north), but just trying to make the most literal interpretation possible.

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To my untrained model eye it appears this should be one of those storms where areas even well east of the L track could potentially see some decent snow. Any pros opinions on that? Kinda like jan 1999 (no im not saying it will b that strong). I got a foot of snow from a storm that tracked way west of me, when a golden track has brought m 8-11" in recent years. Its kinda the opposite of when thos lament a perfect L track but lack of cold air.

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OHweather gave some nice thoughts but I agree with the bolded.  This seems to be one of those storms that the models seem intent on kicking out powerful piece of energy all in one piece...until we start seeing signals for something strung out, I think super supressed is off the table.

Simply put, if the 50/50 low is as weak as what the 12z Euro just showed, I agree that it won't do much to keep this storm to the south.

 

I'm not sure why DT is so bullish on his thinking of a major east coast storm at this point...need the stronger Greenland blocking to pan out and more of a 50/50 low than the 12z Euro just showed for this to turn into a threat outside of New England and the far interior Mid-Atlantic. It's possible but a track just north of the Ohio River is as far south I think this reasonably trends, if it does trend south. Either way I'm probably seeing a lot of rain where I sit.

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The general agreement might be even better than it was then. I'm pretty sure that the GFS was still way suppressed with GHD around this time range.

 

Yeah the GFS was suppressed but came around before too long and then didn't waiver.  The euro was like a rock from 240+ out I think.

 

Simply put, if the 50/50 low is as weak as what the 12z Euro just showed, I agree that it won't do much to keep this storm to the south.

 

I'm not sure why DT is so bullish on his thinking of a major east coast storm at this point...need the stronger Greenland blocking to pan out and more of a 50/50 low than the 12z Euro just showed for this to turn into a threat outside of New England and the far interior Mid-Atlantic. It's possible but a track just north of the Ohio River is as far south I think this reasonably trends, if it does trend south. Either way I'm probably seeing a lot of rain where I sit.

 

the OH river sounds like a good southern cone border for the time being.

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