harrisale Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Alright I can't believe I'm posting this but its lolworthy for sure. DT rooting for east coast storm all the way. In model denial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Euro looks like it'll be north of its 0z run. Straight to rain here at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Euro looks like it'll be north of its 0z run. gotta admit...liking where i'm sitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Let's not go overboard, it's two feet at best, though that would still be one epic storm combined with the inevitable wind. Incredible runs though. Wonder what the flake size would be on the GFS model... Hopefully better than the GHD storm, but wouldn't complain if it was a bunch of smaller flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the GFS and Euro by 168 are in excellent agreement all things considered. hot setup coming through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Euro looks like it'll be north of its 0z run. Straight to rain here at the beginning. Boooo I'd rather not be in the sweet spot this far out anyways lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gotta admit...liking where i'm sitting. Good run for you, IA, WI, MI, and ON. All plain rain here. Low actually ends up pretty close to the 0z run at 12z Friday...pretty much over LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z Euro looks like it'll be north of its 0z run. Straight to rain here at the beginning. Not for long...looks like it would flip to a period of snow or mix and then possibly back to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good run for you, IA, WI, MI, and ON. All plain rain here. Low actually ends up pretty close to the 0z run at 12z Friday...pretty much over LAF. A lot of smart people seem to be favoring southward adjustments but I have a hard time buying it...this wouldn't be the first time a powerhouse west coast trough ate a 50/50 low for breakfast. Just have to hope it won't be too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 All plain rain here. Verbatim, no it's not. Look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Alright I can't believe I'm posting this but its lolworthy for sure. DT rooting for east coast storm all the way. In model denial. Although unlikely, havent similar things happened before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not for long...looks like it would flip to a period of snow or mix and then possibly back to light rain. Maybe. Looks "warm" enough verbatim. A lot of smart people seem to be favoring southward adjustments but I have a hard time buying it...this wouldn't be the first time a powerhouse west coast trough ate a 50/50 low for breakfast. Just have to hope it won't be too amped. I'm certainly not smart enough to know, but I'd very surprised if this thing trends in my favor. As long as it maintains this "powerful" look, and with this track, I'm pretty sure its dunzo for LAF. But nothing is ever set in stone...especially 6+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Maybe. Looks "warm" enough verbatim. I'm certainly not smart enough to know, but I'd very surprised if this thing trends in my favor. As long as it maintains this "powerful" look, and with this track, I'm pretty sure its dunzo for LAF. But nothing is ever set in stone...especially 6+ days out. OHweather gave some nice thoughts but I agree with the bolded. This seems to be one of those storms that the models seem intent on kicking out powerful piece of energy all in one piece...until we start seeing signals for something strung out, I think super supressed is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Maybe. Looks "warm" enough verbatim. I'm certainly not smart enough to know, but I'd very surprised if this thing trends in my favor. As long as it maintains this "powerful" look, and with this track, I'm pretty sure its dunzo for LAF. But nothing is ever set in stone...especially 6+ days out. It's marginal, don't get me wrong (and the heavier snows are definitely north), but just trying to make the most literal interpretation possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Verbatim, no it's not. Look again. Admit though, on this run we ride quite the line. 20 miles south liquid? Maybe 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Alright I can't believe I'm posting this but its lolworthy for sure. DT rooting for east coast storm all the way. In model denial.DT's point really isn't valid on that image...Which is not surprising given its DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You know things are getting good when the LAF guys are arguing p-types at 180+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You know things are getting good when the LAF guys are arguing p-types at 180+ hrs out. High stakes weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 gotta admit...liking where i'm sitting. Haven't seen this good of agreement on a big storm around here since GHD. And I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 To my untrained model eye it appears this should be one of those storms where areas even well east of the L track could potentially see some decent snow. Any pros opinions on that? Kinda like jan 1999 (no im not saying it will b that strong). I got a foot of snow from a storm that tracked way west of me, when a golden track has brought m 8-11" in recent years. Its kinda the opposite of when thos lament a perfect L track but lack of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Haven't seen this good of agreement on a big storm around here since GHD. And I agree with you. The general agreement might be even better than it was then. I'm pretty sure that the GFS was still way suppressed with GHD around this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 OHweather gave some nice thoughts but I agree with the bolded. This seems to be one of those storms that the models seem intent on kicking out powerful piece of energy all in one piece...until we start seeing signals for something strung out, I think super supressed is off the table. Simply put, if the 50/50 low is as weak as what the 12z Euro just showed, I agree that it won't do much to keep this storm to the south. I'm not sure why DT is so bullish on his thinking of a major east coast storm at this point...need the stronger Greenland blocking to pan out and more of a 50/50 low than the 12z Euro just showed for this to turn into a threat outside of New England and the far interior Mid-Atlantic. It's possible but a track just north of the Ohio River is as far south I think this reasonably trends, if it does trend south. Either way I'm probably seeing a lot of rain where I sit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Second, or third, chance for the lucky losers, possibly entering the picture beyond 240 hours on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The general agreement might be even better than it was then. I'm pretty sure that the GFS was still way suppressed with GHD around this time range. Yeah the GFS was suppressed but came around before too long and then didn't waiver. The euro was like a rock from 240+ out I think. Simply put, if the 50/50 low is as weak as what the 12z Euro just showed, I agree that it won't do much to keep this storm to the south. I'm not sure why DT is so bullish on his thinking of a major east coast storm at this point...need the stronger Greenland blocking to pan out and more of a 50/50 low than the 12z Euro just showed for this to turn into a threat outside of New England and the far interior Mid-Atlantic. It's possible but a track just north of the Ohio River is as far south I think this reasonably trends, if it does trend south. Either way I'm probably seeing a lot of rain where I sit. the OH river sounds like a good southern cone border for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 FWIW, I think I saw only one 12z GEFS member that was "south enough" for all wintry here. Some real doozies as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the GFS and Euro by 168 are in excellent agreement all things considered. hot setup coming through That dry punch at H7 is already looking impressive...jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 have we talked about last nights dicussion from DVN...lol. I wonder what gems todays has in store. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 have we talked about last nights dicussion from DVN...lol. I wonder what gems todays has in store. Lol I just read it, the Mets are anxious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 only DVN would toss out "high confidence" amounts of 6" or more a week plus out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 They are already picking models as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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