Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I doubt this ends up being a rainer here but hey, I could be wrong. I think it's very possible this is a complete "warm"/wet system for LAF. But all options remain on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 one of the fatter 12"+ swaths on a clown map you'll see in this region. Probably won't get much better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Agreed, way too early to rule that out. We need the track to be more like the 00z euro to not have mixing/rain concerns north of I-80. The strength of the system as modeled on the GFS would likely result in stronger WAA than depicted. Also, warm sector severe potential looks pretty epic. Wouldn't be surprised at all if SPC highlights an outlook area with tonight's day 4-8. SPC AC 140938 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013 VALID 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SCNTRL TX MONDAY AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE UNIFIES WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH MOIST/WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER EAST TX...THEN ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF STATES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM. LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING THE DAY8 PERIOD. WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN THREAT COULD BE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 02/14/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think it's very possible this is a complete "warm"/wet system for LAF. But all options remain on the table. It's going to be close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We should do a snowfall contest for a few select cities. What you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_240.gif Ugh. Spring can't get here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 epic boston blizzard like run for WI Two feet for Geos verbatim. Someone pinch me please. Feel like I must be hallucinating or something. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Three feet for Geos verbatim. Someone pinch me please. Feel like I must be hallucinating or something. lol Let's not go overboard, it's two feet at best, though that would still be one epic storm combined with the inevitable wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 one of the fatter 12"+ swaths on a clown map you'll see in this region. Probably won't get much better than that. I think clown maps with the GHD blizzard were topping out close to 30" A very impressive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luftfeuchtigkeit Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ok, I'll go out on a limb and declare jackpot for Madison. Maybe it will jinx me and spread the wealth to those to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think clown maps with the GHD blizzard were topping out close to 30" A very impressive run. The bufkit maps were even better. I think some of them even went over 30 at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Let's not go overboard, it's two feet at best, though that would still be one epic storm combined with the inevitable wind. Fixed it. I was eyeballing wrong. Hadn't looked at the "clown map". I didn't even realize the precip periods on the NWS site GFS map overlap between 120 and 192 hours. Goes to show how often I try to eyeball GFS qpf amounts out beyond 120 hours. I don't know why they do that. Makes it confusing. 20" is still pretty epic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Actually looks like the 12z GFS is a bit further south when the mid-level low closes off in western KS compared to the 6z run. Skilling in full blown weenie hype mode on fb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Actually looks like the 12z GFS is a bit further south when the mid-level low closes off in western KS compared to the 6z run. Skilling in full blown weenie hype mode on fb. lol......but I'm on board too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GFS makes me happy in the pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I forget, are these six or twelve hour precip frames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM looks like it'd be strung out/south (relative to the GFS) if extrapolated beyond 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GGEM tracks just south of the OH river which is a big jump south from its 0z run and joining the 0z Euro in the south camp. GFS might be the outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'm on board that this will be a biggie for someone but I'd wait until next Tuesday's 12z runs to have complete confidence in the track. By that time the models will have the strength and speed of the exiting first storm nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM looks like it'd be strung out/south (relative to the GFS) if extrapolated beyond 180 hours. I thought the 12z run goes out to 240 since the upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GGEM tracks just south of the OH river which is a big jump south from its 0z run and joining the 0z Euro in the south camp. GFS might be the outlier at this point. Unlike the Euro though the GEM suppresses most of the precip pretty far south. I think the Euro is really an in between solution vs the amped up GFS and more suppressed GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GGEM looks like it'd be strung out/south (relative to the GFS) if extrapolated beyond 180 hours. I thought the 12z run goes out to 240 since the upgrade? It does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 12z GGEM at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The previous storm hangs closer to the east coast on the GGEM, one reason that our big one is forced south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I thought the 12z run goes out to 240 since the upgrade? News to me. I look at the GGEM via PSU ewall and they still have it only to 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 News to me. I look at the GGEM via PSU ewall and they still have it only to 180. Go to meteocentre the 12z GGEM is out to 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_240.gif Thanks, I just set this as my desktop background. Probably won't see better eye candy than this, I hope I'm wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Although the 12z GFS hangs back the early week system near the 50/50 position a little longer this run...the model failed to develop blocking back towards Greenland, and allows the height rises ahead of our potential bomb to push the 50/50 low out of the way, and allows the low to cut rather far to the north. Despite all this, the model does have quite an east based -NAO, and has two deep closed lows very close to each other over the northern Atlantic as the first upper low runs into the east-based block...wouldn't surprise me if that's a bit erroneous. The 0z Euro ensembles developed much more Greenland blocking by the middle of next week than the 12z GFS did...which has been the trend between the two suites of models...and kept the 50/50 low in place, resulting in a track much farther south than what the 12z GFS showed. I think trends in the Atlantic will be key here since we will in all likelihood see a deep low eject into the Plains over OK/north TX in about a week...as whether or not heights can rise east of the ejecting low in my eyes will determine if the low bends more to the north and cuts into the lower lakes...or moves more west to east and tracks closer to the Ohio River. Given the European suite's consistency in developing more Greenland blocking than the GFS suite...and the, in my opinion, interesting evolution in the N. Atlantic the GFS had this run, I think we may see the GFS adjust south somewhat over the coming days, which would still be a great storm for a lot of this subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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