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February 21st - 23rd Winter Storm


Powerball

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Agreed, way too early to rule that out. We need the track to be more like the 00z euro to not have mixing/rain concerns north of I-80. The strength of the system as modeled on the GFS would likely result in stronger WAA than depicted. Also, warm sector severe potential looks pretty epic. Wouldn't be surprised at all if SPC highlights an outlook area with tonight's day 4-8.

 

 

SPC AC 140938

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0338 AM CST THU FEB 14 2013

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT SRN STREAM MID LEVEL SPEED MAX

WILL EJECT ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SCNTRL TX MONDAY AS NRN STREAM

SHORT-WAVE UNIFIES WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE MS VALLEY. THIS

STRONG SYSTEM WILL LIKELY INDUCE CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH

MOIST/WEAKLY BUOYANT AIRMASS OVER EAST TX...THEN ACROSS THE CNTRL

GULF STATES TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE

WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WITH THIS SYSTEM.

LATER IN THE WEEK A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT

MAY UNFOLD FROM EAST TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS 100KT+ MID LEVEL

SPEED MAX APPROACHES WHAT SHOULD BE A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT

ENVIRONMENT. IF UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS MANAGE TO ADVANCE

SUBSTANTIALLY INLAND AN ORGANIZED SEVERE SCENARIO MAY UNFOLD DURING

THE DAY8 PERIOD. WILL NOT INTRODUCE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS GIVEN

THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM MAY SLOW ENOUGH THAT THE MAIN THREAT

COULD BE BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 02/14/2013

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Let's not go overboard, it's two feet at best, though that would still be one epic storm combined with the inevitable wind.

 

Fixed it.  I was eyeballing wrong.  Hadn't looked at the "clown map".  I didn't even realize the precip periods on the NWS site GFS map overlap between 120 and 192 hours.  Goes to show how often I try to eyeball GFS qpf amounts out beyond 120 hours.  I don't know why they do that.  Makes it confusing.  20" is still pretty epic though.

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12z GGEM tracks just south of the OH river which is a big jump south from its 0z run and joining the 0z Euro in the south camp. GFS might be the outlier at this point.

 

Unlike the Euro though the GEM suppresses most of the precip pretty far south.  I think the Euro is really an in between solution vs the amped up GFS and more suppressed GEM.

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post-525-0-85652100-1360866826_thumb.png

 

Although the 12z GFS hangs back the early week system near the 50/50 position a little longer this run...the model failed to develop blocking back towards Greenland, and allows the height rises ahead of our potential bomb to push the 50/50 low out of the way, and allows the low to cut rather far to the north.

 

Despite all this, the model does have quite an east based -NAO, and has two deep closed lows very close to each other over the northern Atlantic as the first upper low runs into the east-based block...wouldn't surprise me if that's a bit erroneous. The 0z Euro ensembles developed much more Greenland blocking by the middle of next week than the 12z GFS did...which has been the trend between the two suites of models...and kept the 50/50 low in place, resulting in a track much farther south than what the 12z GFS showed.

 

I think trends in the Atlantic will be key here since we will in all likelihood see a deep low eject into the Plains over OK/north TX in about a week...as whether or not heights can rise east of the ejecting low in my eyes will determine if the low bends more to the north and cuts into the lower lakes...or moves more west to east and tracks closer to the Ohio River. Given the European suite's consistency in developing more Greenland blocking than the GFS suite...and the, in my opinion, interesting evolution in the N. Atlantic the GFS had this run, I think we may see the GFS adjust south somewhat over the coming days, which would still be a great storm for a lot of this subforum.

 

 

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