Harry Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The 06z pretty much topped the 00z GFS in all categories. Just an incredible run, a foot or better snow band about 500 miles wide from the Rockies to the Lakes along and North of I-80, along with the severe side of things down South which if trends continue as they have been shown thus far, could be substantial. The low bottoms out at around 982mb near Omaha before slowly filling in as it slides ENE. Those on the far Eastern end of the region might not get as much snow but with the high in Canada cold air funnels down into the region and even with a bad track most areas still get a lot of snow even out this way and up toward GTA. I suspect the totals further east will go up because i kinda doubt the system heads ene into what basically amounts to a block/-NAO. That is assuming the block/-NAO is there. But yeah that was a epic run for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I suspect the totals further east will go up because i kinda doubt the system heads ene into what basically amounts to a block/-NAO. That is assuming the block/-NAO is there. But yeah that was a epic run for many. Yeah I am not overly concerned locally, all things considered even if it did come this way, I'd take the 6"+ we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Temps are the biggest thing in question in my mind at this point. A storm of this intensity is going to want to pump a ton of warm air on its eastern flank. It's essential the Mon-Tuesday storm deepens as much as is currently modeled over E Canada to lock in the confluence aloft/banana arctic high pressure at the sfc and impede any cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Temps are the biggest thing in question in my mind at this point. A storm of this intensity is going to want to pump a ton of warm air on its eastern flank. It's essential the Mon-Tuesday storm deepens as much as is currently modeled over E Canada to lock in the confluence aloft/banana arctic high pressure at the sfc and impede any cutting. It can cut, but only so far before sliding East. I agree there will be a block in place but I don't know about confluence, if anything us out East don't want confluence because then this would stretch out as it slides East. I will pass on a weakening hot mess being stretched by confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Temps are the biggest thing in question in my mind at this point. Welcome to my thinking yesterday when I was getting trolled. This is going to be a major storm but could easily be rain for most of the sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Welcome to my thinking yesterday when I was getting trolled. This is going to be a major storm but could easily be rain for most of the sub forum Unless you are talking about freezing rain, no. Not with a high that strong across Canada. Btw lol at you saying you are getting trolled and then drop that 2nd line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Welcome to my thinking yesterday when I was getting trolled. This is going to be a major storm but could easily be rain for most of the sub forum It sounded more like you were criticizing the 12z/13 GFS because it wasn't cutting, which was an impossibility with a vortex over the Gulf of St. Lawrence that was closed off even at H3. Meteorologically, I think that run made sense. Whether that vortex ends up being in place or as strong as currently modeled is certainly a concern and up for debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It can cut, but only so far before sliding East. I agree there will be a block in place but I don't know about confluence, if anything us out East don't want confluence because then this would stretch out as it slides East. I will pass on a weakening hot mess being stretched by confluence. Confluence can be a good thing, but it's all about placement. I don't want all the H5 contours bunching together around southern Quebec/northern NYS. Maine/Gulf of Maine? Different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Confluence can be a good thing, but it's all about placement. I don't want all the H5 contours bunching together around southern Quebec/northern NYS. Maine/Gulf of Maine? Different story. Okay, yeah I agree here. Although ideally I'd rather the confluence be transient and move along as this moves up into the region, which would allow for this system to maintain strength longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Welcome to my thinking yesterday when I was getting trolled. This is going to be a major storm but could easily be rain for most of the sub forum +1 I'm seeing a Mix to Rain scenario (ATP!!!!). Not really a winner of track from ORD to YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 +1 I'm seeing a Mix to Rain scenario (ATP!!!!). Not really a winner of track from ORD to YYZ Please look at the thermodynamic profiles, with the high to the North there will be cold air in place. I feel like I am repeating myself about this because people look at the low track and throw everything else out the window. This is the max temp from the surface to 500mb, follow the 0c contour, it makes it to about I-80, plus by 192hr the system is starting to occlude which would shunt any potential warming Eastward. The 00z GFS was the same as was the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 verbatim we are good but the history of mega 300 mb streaks that dig powerhouse vorts into the southwest gives me reason to be concerned...Canadian high or not, if those heights crank enough it's liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 last night I watched a new DT video, the theme was THERE IS NO WAY THIS WILL CUT TOWARDS CHICAGO....NO WAY...CAN'T HAPPEN...DON'T BELIEVE ANY MODEL THAT SHOWS IT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 verbatim we are good but the history of mega 300 mb streaks that dig powerhouse vorts into the southwest gives me reason to be concerned...Canadian high or not, if those heights crank enough it's liquid They won't be able to crank that high with the early week system still lingering in the NE initially. The ridging between the 2 can only get so amplified, this is one situation where having not that much wave separation is going to help us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 They won't be able to crank that high with the early week system still lingering in the NE initially. The ridging between the 2 can only get so amplified, this is one situation where having not that much wave separation is going to help us out. I get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I get it Alright, well hopefully the models don't switch everything up while i sleep today, then I'll have to come on and do damage control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 last night I watched a new DT video, the theme was THERE IS NO WAY THIS WILL CUT TOWARDS CHICAGO....NO WAY...CAN'T HAPPEN...DON'T BELIEVE ANY MODEL THAT SHOWS IT.... Weez doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Weez doomed. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Alright, well hopefully the models don't switch everything up while i sleep today, then I'll have to come on and do damage control I'm not calling for rain IMBY way too early for that, I just hate the "it can't possible cut" talk...it can, and the early week system we're counting on is a bit of a hot mess. On the plus side, I don't think there is any chance this storm vanishes...like many big dogs before it, this feels like one where the models pick up on at 240 and never lose. Big winner TBD obv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Alright, well hopefully the models don't switch everything up while i sleep today, then I'll have to come on and do damage control Haha we are due for a vanishing storm which reappears a bit closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 00Z Euro is a nightmare solution for ice. Triple point low popping near MEM with a big banana high due north and impressive E-ENE sfc winds over a large swath of territory. Warm nose is situated rather high in the profile. This might scream sleetmageddon in a normal storm, but with that cranking LLJ, there would be a big swath of heavy icing. Luckily, this isn't 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Entertaining set of runs last night. Hard not to imagine a plethora of precipitation types may be possible here. Hopefully the models continue showing this threat. Long ways to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Entertaining set of runs last night. Hard not to imagine a plethora of precipitation types may be possible here. Hopefully the models continue showing this threat. Long ways to go... We're back on the upswing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We're back on the upswing Yes indeed. Need to get the IL win=Alek snow thing back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 best fantasy bomb of the winter. Impressive ensemble support as well. Gonna be a long 7 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 sorry is posted but this isn't a lot of bagginess for a 192 hour mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Prediction: 10 storm threads for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Prediction: 10 storm threads for this event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is sweetness. For those that would know? When was the last bowling ball type snowstorm? I think this might be a first for me? Moved here in summer of 2004 and i don't recall one of these yet? February 20th-21st, 2011 was sorta/kinda a bowling ball system. Granted, the pattern in Atlantic was a lot more blocky and it never really closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 sorry is posted but this isn't a lot of bagginess for a 192 hour mean I bet we have more agreement in models now than we will 3 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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