Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 6z GFS came in with the driest run yet at ORD... 0.20" QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z gfs bit wetter for ord. .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 NAM is a little different for here, warms the mid levels a tad initially but then cools the column thereafter...or while it precipitates. Maybe some evaporative cooling at work. 0.25" for LAF, so we'll need to latch onto that "wet" run. 12z GFS looks close to 0.25" as well. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 lol 300 MJ 300,000,000 CAPE SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 3:55 PM, hm8 said: lol 300 MJ 300,000,000 CAPE SHUT DOWN EVERYTHING That would simply eject the atmosphere into space if I'm not mistaken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Big difference in QPF between the NAM/GFS for here. NAM with .60"+ and GFS with .33" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 4:48 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Big difference in QPF between the NAM/GFS for here. NAM with .60"+ and GFS with .33"[/quote I haven't looked at the previous runs.... Does the NAM keep increasing the QPF for northern IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 toss the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 4:48 PM, Thundersnow12 said: Big difference in QPF between the NAM/GFS for here. NAM with .60"+ and GFS with .33" What's the Euro have for there (text data)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 9z SREF mean has 4.5" for ORD. range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 4:54 PM, Chicago WX said: NAM with .60"+ and GFS with .33" What's the Euro have for there (text data)? 0.35" at ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 yeah, NAM standing alone and wet as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 5:09 PM, Chicago Storm said: 0.35" at ORD. Thanks. Agrees with the GFS then. So, we toss the NAM...as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 9:24 AM, andyhb said: J/kg. Also, I wasn't quite sure what unit you meant by MJ, since it can be a number of different abbreviations. No problem. you're right about that I shouldn't have taken it as a sarcastic snarky remark. There are so many severe weather indices it can be ridiculous at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GGEM continues to look very interesting for Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Need to liven up Alek's thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z UK. Another fun looking solution for Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 3:54 PM, Chicago WX said: NAM is a little different for here, warms the mid levels a tad initially but then cools the column thereafter...or while it precipitates. Maybe some evaporative cooling at work. 0.25" for LAF, so we'll need to latch onto that "wet" run. 12z GFS looks close to 0.25" as well. Oh boy. GFS looks like mainly snow before ending as a bit of zr. NAM is more of a mixed bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 5:58 PM, Hoosier said: GFS looks like mainly snow before ending as a bit of zr. NAM is more of a mixed bag. I know it's a tough one, but your preliminary best guess for LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 5:59 PM, Chicago WX said: I know it's a tough one, but your preliminary best guess for LAF? An inch or two of snow/sleet (let's hope mainly snow) and up to a tenth of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:04 PM, Alek said: .2" lol On 2/19/2013 at 6:04 PM, Hoosier said: An inch or two of snow/sleet (let's hope mainly snow) and up to a tenth of an inch of ice. Sounds about right. We'll see. Hopefully we can squeeze a little more precipitation out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:06 PM, Chicago WX said: lol Sounds about right. We'll see. Hopefully we can squeeze a little more precipitation out of this thing. Yeah, I thought about 1-3" but 3" really seems to be on the lower end of possibilities at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro .25+ for Chicago area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:07 PM, Hoosier said: Yeah, I thought about 1-3" but 3" really seems to be on the lower end of possibilities at this point. 12z Euro looks better for us. Still close, but nice little bump in QPF overhead and slightly cooler 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 What does euro show QPF wise for St louis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:11 PM, Snowman99 said: What does euro show QPF wise for St louis? A bit over .5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:09 PM, Chicago WX said: 12z Euro looks better for us. Still close, but nice little bump in QPF overhead and slightly cooler 850 temps. Looks that way. Euro might now be one of the wetter models for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 1.9" final IMBY call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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