Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yeah, I'm not seeing any snow for us. Mid-levels should torch sufficiently. Thing to watch is if surface temps can get back below freezing, as it looks like we'll be above 32º on Thursday, before the precip hits. Not that they'll be much precipitation for us anyway. Classic 33-34º and rain for LAF? I don't think an all rain event is a danger at this point. If temps are above freezing when precip starts, they should drop below very fast after precipitation begins. Doesn't hurt that the bulk of this looks to come after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Who's up for an over/under for ORD? Line is 2.4", the largest event total of the season. I'll take the over. Over but not by a whole lot, I could see the range be 2.2-2.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Convective precip could also be a complicating factor in terms of precip type, which the 00z NAM is hinting at locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I like the over on 2.4" at ORD. Seems the models are getting a little "juicier" for NE IL the closer we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I don't think an all rain event is a danger at this point. If temps are above freezing when precip starts, they should drop below very fast after precipitation begins. Doesn't hurt that the bulk of this looks to come after dark. Eh, we've played that game too many times...and lost. Wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again...33-34 and rain. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z Nam gives ORD around 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Instantweathermaps have ORD closer to 6". NAM Low along I-40 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS looks a little skimpier for the QC through NE IL and SE WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Little bit Chi wx No getting bent out of shape over snowfall on Thursday night when it's Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 No getting bent out of shape over snowfall on Thursday night when it's Monday night. Who's getting bent out of shape? Just reading what the models show as they come in tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Who's getting bent out of shape? Just reading what the models show as they come in tonight. Not towards any one person. Take each snowfall map with a grain salt. Who knows maybe the 6z will have you at 4" and ORD at 6" again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Eh, we've played that game too many times...and lost. Wouldn't be surprised to see it happen again...33-34 and rain. We shall see. Would be a pretty significant model fail. The early occlusion helps in terms of not letting the warm air advection get out of control. We will warm up eventually of course but it should basically be over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Would be a pretty significant model fail. The early occlusion helps in terms of not letting the warm air advection get out of control. We will warm up eventually of course but it should basically be over by then. Sad thing is we're debating over what 0.20" of precip is going to be for here. What a piece of crap storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hey guys, I know I'm not from this region, but I'll be traveling from Valparaiso, IN to Ann Arbor, MI Thursday night for some college visits. Just wanted your opinions on what I should expect. Thanks in advance. Be sure to check out the weather station on North Campus if you get a chance...I'll probably be somewhere near by there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Sad thing is we're debating over what 0.20" of precip is going to be for here. What a piece of crap storm. We gotta make do with what mother nature gives us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 FWIW the SREF mean 12hr snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GGEM did a Guymon, OK, to OKC, then to Quincy, IL track. In line with the NAM and GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z Euro a little farther south with the low. Gets better precip into MI. About the same for other areas. Ho hum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z Euro a little farther south with the low. Gets better precip into MI. About the same for other areas. Ho hum. NAM/ECMWF seem like the warmest models (at least here). Dreaded EE rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 NAM/ECMWF seem like the warmest models (at least here). Dreaded EE rule? I thought the 0z Euro looked a bit cooler for us. Eh, it seems to run a touch warm with 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I thought the 0z Euro looked a bit cooler for us. Eh, it seems to run a touch warm with 2m temps. I'm not talking about 2m. It keeps our 850 mb temps above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm not talking about 2m. It keeps our 850 mb temps above freezing. I gotcha, sorry. Yeah, both do punt frozen for us...essentially. I guess I'll be more interested to see what the NAM offers in that regard, the closer we get. Never been a fan of the Euro's accuracy in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 For where I live the Euro caved big time. Now the models are pretty close on timing and track without more changes which there will be. But the GFS and GEM are both better for snow, while the Euro is back and forth. But the Euro has convection. 200-300MJ of Cape. It shows with up to .50 QPF in 3 hour period in an isolated spot but most of the STL metro gets 0.6+ QPF in 6 hours of either heavy sleet or snow. Surface temps in the mid to upper 20s so this will be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 But the GFS and GEM are both better for snow, while the Euro is back and forth. But the Euro has convection. 200-300MJ of Cape. It shows with up to .50 QPF in 3 hour period in an isolated spot but most of the STL metro gets 0.6+ QPF in 6 hours of either heavy sleet or snow. MJ of CAPE? I don't recall ever seeing that used in instability analysis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Then Joules? Since you know I was wrong you should have just corrected me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 J/kg. Also, I wasn't quite sure what unit you meant by MJ, since it can be a number of different abbreviations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 WSW for the LSX CWA they just haven't posted it yet Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 After reading the AFD from ILX and the WSW from LSX about the ice potential it makes no sense they both say the same thing but yet ILX doesn't issue a watch... Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the NAM continues to advertise an advisory level hit but given it's very typical bias of overdoing QPF, especially at this range, I like Tim's 2.5" or so over under for ORD and leaning under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Not looking very impressive on the 6z gfs.... Be lucky to get 3 or 4 inches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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