Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Chicago IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT BURST OF WARM ADVECTION FORCED SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERRUNS THE LOW LEVEL OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE WHILE IT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SATURATION IS LOST IN THE -10 C AND COLDER LEVELS WHICH SUGGEST A LOSS OF ICE CRYSTAL PRODUCTION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO MORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE SITUATION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD EASILY END UP IN THE 3-5 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE BY FRIDAY MORNING. I've been through those type of situations before. That's alright I'll take what I can get this week! For sh**s and giggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's not my connection. It could be something with the browser. I can't use the "quote" option and the post only goes through if I click "more reply options". I find that this site works most smoothly with Chrome. Maybe restart your browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's not my connection. It could be something with the browser. I can't use the "quote" option and the post only goes through if I click "more reply options". That problem i'm unfamiliar with. Agree with Geos.Try another browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That problem i'm unfamiliar with. Agree with Geos.Try another browser. I fixed it by clearing all my cached data. You can delete the off topic posts now. I was just really annoyed by losing somethng I wrote up. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 GFS a bit juicier for some of the subforum area (S WI in particular) this go around. Keeps the front end snow intact a bit longer up to near Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lol, anyone notice that Earl Barker has clown maps up to 40" now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Was that a typo Hoosier, because I only see 12-16" on that map? haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Was that a typo Hoosier, because I only see 12-16" on that map? haha He's referring to the overall key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sucks that there's that kicker right on the heel of the closed low over the northern Plains at 108 keeping everything progressive. Otherwise, that s/w over the southern Plains that eventually creates that EC storm may have been able to amplify sooner and force the secondary storm westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 He's referring to the overall key. O, got it. Lol, I read that sentence the wrong way. Total GFS showing that band holding together longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Who's up for an over/under for ORD? Line is 2.4", the largest event total of the season. I'll take the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Who's up for an over/under for ORD? Line is 2.4", the largest event total of the season. I'll take the over. over, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Who's up for an over/under for ORD? Line is 2.4", the largest event total of the season. I'll take the over. Sure why not. I'll take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 So we went from a progressive, runny pipeline to one that is all blocked up? yay. Blocking in some places is good. It just seems like there isn't enough wave separation or something. Too much meridional flow everywhere mixes everything up so that the baroclinic potential ( i.e. N-S temperature-gradient ) doesn't have time to build up. I just get the feeling that at this point even if the storm does trend towards phasing more with the subtropical jet it will just cut more, giving MN or Western WI a better dump but still nothing much for MI people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 over, but not by much. Agreed, I was thinking around 3". 12z Euro and 18z GFS suggest 4" is possible, but the warm advection burst is really going to have to produce fairly quickly before the precip transitions to freezing drizzle as the dry slot moves overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Agreed, I was thinking around 3". 12z Euro and 18z GFS suggest 4" is possible, but the warm advection burst is really going to have to produce fairly quickly before the precip transitions to freezing drizzle as the dry slot moves overhead. I know the setup is different I believe but this ENE moving fronto band reminds of 12/20/10 here. Quick hitting 3-5" event in <6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I know the setup is different I believe but this ENE moving fronto band reminds of 12/20/10 here. Quick hitting 3-5" event in <6 hours. I was thinking of that same event, we also went over to a period of freezing drizzle after the snow ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I know the setup is different I believe but this ENE moving fronto band reminds of 12/20/10 here. Quick hitting 3-5" event in <6 hours. So I take it you're going with the over too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 So I take it you're going with the over too? I think it will be close. I'll say yes if we don't see another weakening trend in QPF as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'll take the under. Around 2". (NAM clown divided by 2). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'll take the under, just to be a spoiler. 1.8" and I hope I bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 For all of you who are looking for a good laugh, take a listen to the NOAA Weather Radio voice go crazy over tonight over-hyped "Winter Weather Advisory"... Its a recording on YouTube... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z NAM coming in kinda warm. Would flip us over to freezing rain very quickly after perhaps a very brief shot of snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z NAM with 1-7" across the LOT CWA from northwest to southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hey guys, I know I'm not from this region, but I'll be traveling from Valparaiso, IN to Ann Arbor, MI Thursday night for some college visits. Just wanted your opinions on what I should expect. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z NAM coming in kinda warm. Would flip us over to freezing rain very quickly after perhaps a very brief shot of snow/sleet. Pretty close to plain rain. Euro has been close the past couple of runs. Seeing any snow is becoming less and less of scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 NAM really loading on the moisture in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Pretty close to plain rain. Euro has been close the past couple of runs. Seeing any snow is becoming less and less of scenario. I knew I'd see a plain rain post out of you. It's only one run but I probably shouldn't have bit on the front end snow/sleet scenario as much...I mean it's possible but it will be a battle with wetbulbing and waa that will be trying to push those layers aloft above 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I knew I'd see a plain rain post out of you. It's only one run but I probably shouldn't have bit on the front end snow/sleet scenario as much...I mean it's possible but it will be a battle with wetbulbing and waa that will be trying to push those layers aloft above 0C. Yeah, I'm not seeing any snow for us. Mid-levels should torch sufficiently. Thing to watch is if surface temps can get back below freezing, as it looks like we'll be above 32º on Thursday, before the precip hits. Not that they'll be much precipitation for us anyway. Classic 33-34º and rain for LAF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hey guys, I know I'm not from this region, but I'll be traveling from Valparaiso, IN to Ann Arbor, MI Thursday night for some college visits. Just wanted your opinions on what I should expect. Thanks in advance. Probably some snow...nothing too major. Ann Arbor is AWESOME by the way. U of M has been recording weather on campus since 1880. They have had over 40" of snow this winter but right now there is just a T on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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