snowstormcanuck Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks like we squeak out 0.25" here, storm total, on the 0z GFS. Yeesh. At least the EC resurrects the storm from the ashes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 0z GFS keeps Freezing Rain south of Iowa. Going to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At least the EC resurrects the storm from the ashes. Naturally. This storm sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Low treks further south along KS/OK border then swings to Chicago by the looks of it. Similar snowfall amounts - trimmed back in NE a bit. ...STL almost gets in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Geos, your GFS snowfall map is tainted by the system coming through tomorrow/Tuesday. Not to mention its "unrealistic" amounts of snow in parts of IL and IN for system #1. This is one is more "correct" for the Jan 21-23 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Geos, your GFS snowfall map is tainted by the system coming through tomorrow/Tuesday. Not to mention its "unrealistic" amounts of snow in parts of IL and IN for system #1. This is one is more "correct" for the Jan 21-23 storm. 2:18 0z GFS total snow.gif I didn't even realize the first system put down snow outside of SC WI! my bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I didn't even realize the first system put down snow outside of SC WI! my bad. Nah, you're good...just wanted to let people know. GFS has 2" amounts into NC IL for this next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Nah, you're good...just wanted to let people know. GFS has 2" amounts into NC IL for this next system. I'll take what I can get tomorrow night. Sounds like the UKMET is about the same as the last 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I didn't even realize the first system put down snow outside of SC WI! my bad. The 2 systems combined will make this a fairly snowy week regardless of the 2nd one being a monster or not. Looks like Madison could get 2-3" from event #1 and a long duration 5-6" from event #2. Gotta love a snowy week like that, nothing overwhelming but still plenty of snow. Might be enough to push us over 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 death gradient near stl there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Definitely a bit early for specifics, but this is looking like a 1-3" type event for the QC. Weakening system fighting a very dry air mass makes this a less than ideal storm setup east of the Mississippi. Wouldn't be surprised if this decays away to a DAB type event honestly, but will remain hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Thinking a couple of flakes, a few sleet pellets, and then freezing drizzle/light rain for LAF. All amounting to not a lot, but the freezing drizzle being the most "exciting" of the three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Thinking a couple of flakes, a few sleet pellets, and then freezing drizzle/light rain for LAF. All amounting to not a lot, but the freezing drizzle being the most "exciting" of the three. Dang, it's still early but I think you're being a little pessimistic. Even the worst model runs have been showing around .2 qpf. I think we see varying precip types but wouldn't be surprised to see a nice burst of snow at the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Dang, it's still early but I think you're being a little pessimistic. Even the worst model runs have been showing around .2 qpf. I think we see varying precip types but wouldn't be surprised to see a nice burst of snow at the beginning. 0.20" isn't a lot of precipitation. The "couple of flakes, a few sleet pellets" is all relative though, and somewhat tongue in cheek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Dang, it's still early but I think you're being a little pessimistic. Even the worst model runs have been showing around .2 qpf. I think we see varying precip types but wouldn't be surprised to see a nice burst of snow at the beginning. It's early but trends overall have been for a significant decaying of the system as it bleeds eastward. Looks like anyone east of the Mississippi will be getting the leftover table scraps from a primarily Plains system. Sloppy seconds if you will, lol. Normally not a big deal, but a bit depressing after days of consistent powerhouse solutions for many of us in this sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It's early but trends overall have been for a significant decaying of the system as it bleeds eastward. Looks like anyone east of the Mississippi will be getting the leftover table scraps from a primarily Plains system. Sloppy seconds if you will, lol. Normally not a big deal, but a bit depressing after days of consistent powerhouse solutions for many of us in this sub. That's because the globals aren't phasing the Polar and Subtropical jet anymore, it will only take a small shift for that solution to come back and then we could have our blizzard again. It's common for models to have some magor shifts as we cross from the mid range to the short range too, especially as the storm comes over the North America obs network after being over open waters with little obs. But I'm not holding my breath waiting for the blizzard solution to come back, it could just as easily get less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The 2 systems combined will make this a fairly snowy week regardless of the 2nd one being a monster or not. Looks like Madison could get 2-3" from event #1 and a long duration 5-6" from event #2. Gotta love a snowy week like that, nothing overwhelming but still plenty of snow. Might be enough to push us over 50". 50"! Nice. I knew Madison was in the 40" range. Some of the GGEM numbers roughly: Madison: 0.37" Des Moines: 0.67" Cedar Rap.: 0.54" Chicago: 0.44" MKE: 0.33" DBQ: 0.46" DVN: 0.47" LAF: 0.24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 0z Euro is pretty meh for here...splits the "heavier" precip as it hits LAF/central IN. Looks about the same elsewhere, as per the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 200 mb loop of the polar and subtropical jet getting close but failing to merge at the right time. Subtropical jet energy ends up leading to disorganized cyclogenesis near the Gulf Coast while our cyclone meanders in the Midwest. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/00UTC/avn_c200_flash.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That's because the globals aren't phasing the Polar and Subtropical jet anymore, it will only take a small shift for that solution to come back and then we could have our blizzard again. It's common for models to have some magor shifts as we cross from the mid range to the short range too, especially as the storm comes over the North America obs network after being over open waters with little obs. But I'm not holding my breath waiting for the blizzard solution to come back, it could just as easily get less impressive. Then ofcourse we have the shredder ( Tomorrow night/Tuesday event ) out ahead of it ripping it apart. Amazing how we can go nearly half a winter without much of anything and then when things decide to crank it is all at once which is not good either as we are seeing with this potential. Ofcourse it would also help if the trough/storm came in a bit further south down in Texas. Typically systems that pop out in or close to the KS border fail miserably in these parts unless it stays a true to form bowling ball type low which this wont be now because of it being too close/connected to the northern jet. Had it come out of the sw further south into Texas it would be a totally different ball game with many jumping for joy in this sub forum. Ofcourse it also helps if the storm is closer to a moisture source like the GOM etc and thus another reason why a further south track would have netted better results for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Then ofcourse we have the shredder ( Tomorrow night/Tuesday event ) out ahead of it ripping it apart. Amazing how we can go nearly half a winter without much of anything and then when things decide to crank it is all at once which is not good either as we are seeing with this potential. Ofcourse it would also help if the trough/storm came in a bit further south down in Texas. Typically systems that pop out in or close to the KS border fail miserably in these parts unless it stays a true to form bowling ball type low which this wont be now because of it being too close/connected to the northern jet. Had it come out of the sw further south into Texas it would be a totally different ball game with many jumping for joy in this sub forum. Ofcourse it also helps if the storm is closer to a moisture source like the GOM etc and thus another reason why a further south track would have netted better results for most. An interesting thought crossed my mind when you mentioned a further south ejection of the low... fat chance of it happening, but what if the high pressure and cold front pushed further south then forecast - would it force to low to seek that more southerly route? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I hope this storm gets as strong as possible to hopefully suppress the next one any bit it can (unfortunately I'm thinking even a strong system here won't get that to happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I hope this storm gets as strong as possible to hopefully suppress the next one any bit it can (unfortunately I'm thinking even a strong system here won't get that to happen). If this system were to be stronger/more amplified at this stage, the ridge in behind (considering it won't be centered over the Northeast) would amplify more and increase the chances of the system in behind cutting north faster, so this doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 200 mb loop of the polar and subtropical jet getting close but failing to merge at the right time. Subtropical jet energy ends up leading to disorganized cyclogenesis near the Gulf Coast while our cyclone meanders in the Midwest. http://www.aos.wisc.edu/weatherdata/avn_tempest/00UTC/avn_c200_flash.html This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The storm dies heading east man..I dont see what you are looking at? At least on this run dont see nothing special for the G/L /O/V region....everything comes together perfectly WEST OF US.....Perfect for Minnesota/Iowa... Props... good call! Your call was spot on. Who would have thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I think this image pretty much sums this storm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 When the next one cuts through south dakota we will all be enthusiastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Props... good call! Your call was spot on. Who would have thought. Not sure if you're being sarcastic or not, but he deserves no praise for his nonsense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Local forecast, per WGN, for Thursday says: Details: Winter Storm with hazardous driving conditions possible. Cloudy, strong E to SE winds, gusting to over 25mph, with snow, or sleet, changing eventually to heavy, wet, accumulating snow later in the afternoon, and evening. Nearly steady temps around 30degrees.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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