The_Global_Warmer Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Replied to ya, snowman99. Euro still pumping out 100-300 J/kg of elevated CAPE for the MCI-STL corridor during most of the event. Some dry air in place at the start, so it will be interesting to see how that battle is resolved. yeah, as ironic as it may seem. We are right on the edge of potential heavy snow back to sleet back to snow and so on. But at least ZR is off the table for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 meh.. what fun is your job without a little potential hype and just a heads up to follow the forecast.. So it doesn't look to work out here and if you fell for the little bit of early hype shame on us. No harm no foul from them offices.. Its not like and LOT hasn't had its shares of blunders, of under hyping especially... Look at the last snow storm... epic fail for part of their area especially waukegan. Good post. The way some are reacting is if DVN and MKX put up watches and had 6-12" in the forecast, 7 days out. I saw nothing wrong with they did. As for the TV media types...well, they're a different animal all together. But again, I don't think any of them were specifically calling for projected amounts to be a lock. But everyone is entitled to their opinion on the matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Thanks CS navy..I let him know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Thanks for your input. Mr. Izzi. Please post more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 And the current timing would put it overnight Thursday/early Friday. Friday morning could be tricky before temps warm up. Hopefully dewpoints depressions won't be too large or it eats it up until later in the day. If it was the difference between snow or rain, I would say let it snow. Nobody needs ice just for the morning commute and then be gone in a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Is it too late to latch onto individual GEFS runs? There's a couple 12z ones that I'd like to hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Is it too late to latch onto individual GEFS runs? There's a couple 12z ones that I'd like to hug. I bet one of them is P010! I like P003 the best. I don't blame the weather offices being cautious at this point in the game - it's Sunday and this storm is late Thursday. I hope freezing drizzle doesn't make an appearance though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 CIPS analogs based off the 12z GFS at 96 hours, Great Plains sector: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/thumbnails2.php?reg=GP&fhr=F096&model=GFS212 #1 looks like a solid match, with respect to snowfall. #2 looks like a pipe dream for quite a few of us (didn't realize how widespread that event was). Somewhat interestingly, the top 5 are all storms from March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's in the 60s over parts of Nebraska where they will get dumped on in a few days. Even a few low 70s down in KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's in the 60s over parts of Nebraska where they will get dumped on in a few days. Even a few low 70s down in KS. Ironically, it's 25 here and I'll end up with zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 this thread should be moved to the C/W subforum. For what it's worth, Harold Hosein of 680 News is saying we could be in for a significant snowfall in Toronto on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 For what it's worth, Harold Hosein of 680 News is saying we could be in for a significant snowfall in Toronto on Friday. Just another in the long line of idiot Toronto weather men. Old man should just retire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like this storm won't be as big as forecast for Cedar Rapids. My guess is that Cedar Rapids gets only 3-5 inches of snow and then dry slot. Still, this is better than the pseudo-winter of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Take it fwiw, but here is what the NAM shows at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Sweet, we're in NAM range now. It should cook up a few doozies before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Sweet, we're in NAM range now. It should cook up a few doozies before all is said and done. Next few runs will have some hog wild snow amounts with the 18z run already tossing out 6-9" in KS/NE through only 6z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18z GFS came in a little more south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18z GFS trended SE and wetter for the subforum areas. Looks like the low occludes a bit later on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOT ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO UPPER LOW WHICH MODELS HAVE BEEN PROGGINGACROSS THE MIDWEST LATER IN THE WEEK. TRENDS IN THE VARIOUS GLOBALGUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE BEEN TO SHIFT THE TRACK OF THISFEATURE WEST OF THE WFO CHICAGO FORECAST AREA. CURRENT 12ZDETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE ECMWF/GFS/NOGAPS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THISSOLUTION WITH VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY TO THEIR 00/06Z RUNS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEGEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OFTHE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS...PARTICULARLY IN THE 108-120HOUR RANGE AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. OVERALL...THE TRENDSWHICH STAND OUT INCLUDE THE SYSTEM OCCLUDING OVER MO/IA/ILTHURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WITH THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW SLOWLY DRIFTINGNORTHEAST ACROSS MN/WI FRIDAY. AN ELONGATED SURFACETROUGH/OCCLUSION EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTSACROSS THE LOT CWA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVELDRY SLOT OVERRUNNING THE MOIST LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE LATETHURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF SNOW DEVELOPINGFROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY/THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE ANDOCCLUSION APPROACH...WITH THE DRY SLOT THEN SPREADING ACROSS THEAREA THURSDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELSDEPICT LOSS OF SATURATION IN MID-LEVELS AND LOSS OF ICE-PRODUCTIONWHICH WOULD SUGGEST A DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY AND PERHAPSMORE OF A FREEZING DRIZZLE/DRIZZLE OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH LIGHTSNOW THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS ISSTILL QUITE A WAY OUT IN TIME...AND CHANGES/ADJUSTMENTS REMAINLIKELY TO MODEL FORECASTS AS THE SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS ONLY OVERTHE GULF OF ALASKA AT THIS TIME. THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERNUPPER JET AND THE PRESENCE OF A SEPARATE/FARTHER SOUTH LOW REMAINPOSSIBILITIES. ALSO...THE PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON PRIORTO THE DRY SLOT DEPICTED IN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS COULDPRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE DIMINISHING/CHANGINGTO MIXED PRECIP OR DRIZZLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Well, I take that back when I said that I would only see 3-6 inches of snow. Looks like I might get a foot of snow based on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The GFS is saturating the rest of the column after this image in 6hrs. That is some serious dry air to overcome. If that happens .42" liquid here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah, that's brutal. It's likely that QPF totals there are too high and some of it ends up as freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I really like this, both the GFS and NAM are continuing to trend Colder with the front and it seems more SW with the lakes vort. Of course I would love to see this end up taking a more Southerly track through Oklahoma so my city would get a 6"+ snow storm. But if what I am rooting for does not happen I am completely ok with it, it's just snow. So if I am missed and you are not and get a nice storm, congrats. So don't be offended by my what could be perceived as bias posts. I The NAM which is not reliable and would be hard pressed to be onto a more different solution in some ways than what we have seen out of the Euro. But I do like the looks of this. Closed low is about to "shrink" and bomb. But it's still slightly positive and is obviously going to start out things much further South and widespread colder than the Euro has as of now. I think a lot of us would do good with this set up if say that trough bombs out and a smaller bowling ball swings threw N. Texas, Oklahoma, into Eastern Kansas/North Central MO before crapping out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I see LOT has taken down the link that stated "Big Storm Possible Late Next Week?" Reality has sunk in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I see LOT has taken down the link that stated "Big Storm Possible Late Next Week?" Reality has sunk in.... We didn't take it down, it just fell off the top news because it was published only for a few days. It's still viewable in the top news archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The low on the NAM seems to hang in SE CO and not get picked up right away. Juicy, which is no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z NAM will probably have 24-28" amounts in parts of Nebraska if it continues to stay juicy like tonights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We didn't take it down, it just fell off the top news because it was published only for a few days. It's still viewable in the top news archives. My mistake. Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not jumping the gun yet, but I'm concerned about an ice-storm here. Right now it's showing a classic ice-storm for the Indianapolis viewing area, but it only takes a 50-80 miles southward shift to bring it down here. I suspect the models will start to lock in within the next 48 hours. If they keep going south, uh oh.This has Kentucky ice storm written all over it. Gulf moisture, system coming out of the four corners, yeah not cool. We will see what happens. Would rather have plain rain or all snow. So I wouldn't mind seeing a northward shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Looks like we squeak out 0.25" here, storm total, on the 0z GFS. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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